Out with the old: Castaneda launches presidential campaign; PRD continues to wallow.

At the end of March, ex-Foreign Relations Secretary Jorge Castaneda officially began his presidential campaign with the motto, "We are many, Citizen, wake up."

Castaneda poses the political-electoral battle in the following terms: the PRI, PAN and PRD leaders against the citizenry, and the citizenry against "partyocracy."

In this way, he is looking to represent the "ideal citizens," those without a party. He has characterized the country's three main political parties as obstacles to change. Given the absence of proposals, Castaneda's platform has even greater relevance.

The lack of credibility among parties, the recent debacle within the Green Party and the difficulty to register a political party are the factors Castaneda will look to capitalize on to push his candidacy.

Castaneda's early campaign puts more pressure on the three main political parties to resolve their internal problems and repair their image in the eyes of the people. Parties will try to allow their members greater participation in the selection of candidates, which is a greater incentive

for presidential aspirants to start their preliminary campaigns.

It's worth noting, however, that because of political-electoral issues, the participation of grassroots candidates like Castaneda run the risk of convincing the public of its own impotence. If fundamental democratic change has really been blocked by the political parties, as Castaneda claims, then it's also true that citizen participation can be blocked by these same powers that be.

PRD LOSES A GIANT

The resolutions approved by the National Congress of the embattled (PRD) were eclipsed by the unexpected resignation of party founder Cuauhtemoc Cardenas from his official posts within the organization.

With the aim of countering the corruption scandals facing the PRD and recovering power from internal factions that he believes have taken over the party, Cardenas advocated dissolving the national committee and allowing the PRD's president to name a new committee. However, factions led by former-PRD President Amalia Garcia and longtime powerbroker Jesus Ortega opposed Cardenas' suggestion, and party President Leonel Godoy agreed with the faction leaders.

The PRD's Congress did not achieve agreement among divided factions and also did not renew its national leadership. For this reason, leading political analysts declared the reunion a failure and a farce.

However, the PRD summit did approve proposals on limiting candidate spending, regulating internal factions--which are now forced to name the sources of their funding--and creating a commission to investigate internal corruption cases.

Despite his resignation, it is clear that Cardenas remains the PRD's moral leader, but he has lost influence in regard to party decisions.

Ortega will try to strengthen his faction by getting closer with Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and trying to attract the following of former capital assembly leader Rene Bejarano, who is facing local corruption charges. Garcia's faction will be looking to consolidate its position within the party by holding on to the governor's seat in Zacatecas.

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Both factions will be largely influential in the formation of a new national leadership. Zacatecas Gov. Ricardo Monreal is shaping up to succeed Godoy as party president, as he has stayed clear of internal fighting and has assumed a conciliatory stance.

We can expect no significant transformations within the PRD soon nor expulsion or resignations of high-ranking party militants embroiled in the devastating corruption scandal.

During this year's local elections, the PRD will look to position itself as the only party that took internal measures to combat corruption within its organizations. Given that the PRD's infighting won't be resolved--coupled with the political weakness of Cardenas--Lopez Obrador will probably begin a strategy focused on gradually distancing himself from the PRD in the run up to 2006.

Joel Estudillo Rendon is a member of the board of the Mexican Institute for Political Studies.

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Commentary by Joel Estudillo Rendon