Out of the loop? Experts look back on the local repercussions of Sept. 11, and speculate about the future.

Seven months on, thousands of pages have been written and dozens of forums organized, analyzing the global consequences of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. But, while Mexican and U.S. markets have weathered the storm well so far, it's early days yet to assess the future.

The impact on the economy, after the initial trauma, has been less dramatic than expected--the United States was already on the path to recession before the attacks. And the more recent collapse of oil giant Enron has proven to be more dramatic. But less evident are the long-term repercussions of the United States' new foreign agenda--a hot debate in Washington these days, and a crucial issue for Mexico.

A Feb. 18 conference hosted by the Universidad de las Americas in Cholula, Puebla entitled "After September 11" sought to answer this very question, by bringing together a panel of expert guest speakers from Mexico and abroad.

BETTER OFF

Overall, the consensus was that regardless of what the future holds, Mexico retains its privileged position, not only in comparison to the rest of Latin America, but also compared to the rest of the world.

The hesitations in Mexico's Congress, over the administration's early enconditional support for America's war on terrorism, as well as sporadic displays of anti-American sentiment in other certain political sectors, do nothing to disrupt the underlying realities that have long bound Mexico's economic fate to that of the United States. The enormous importance of bilateral trade and Mexico's new proactive approach to foreign policy and temporary seat on the United Nation's Security Council have also helped offset any moves toward isolationism from the United States.

But probably one of the most significant factors that will ensure the strength of the bilateral relationship for generations to come is the growing U.S. Latino population, and the influence it is wielding on U.S. politics.

"U.S. political leaders, Republicans and Democrats alike, now consider the support of Mexican-Americans (who make up two-thirds of all U.S. Hispanic voters) vital to their electoral success," said President of the hemispheric think-tank Inter-American Dialogue, Peter Hakim.

Meanwhile, according to James Steinberg, president of the Brookings Institution, a non-for-profit organization seeking to improve the effectiveness of U.S. government policies, the fact that there has been no mention whatsoever of Mexico within the ongoing debate over who the friends and enemies of the United States actually are, is highly significant. The announcement by President George Bush, that whoever is not with the United States, is against it (a position Steinberg describes as "the challenge of no double standard"), has put many nations in an uncomfortable position, but not Mexico.

It cannot be forgotten that Bush has already described Mexico as the United States' "most important relationship in the world." Likewise, for Mexico, this relationship is probably even more important.

PLAYING THE GAME

Another more recent factor that has allowed Mexico to maintain its position and influence with the United States, has been its pursuit of a highly proactive foreign policy strategy under the guidance of Foreign Relations Secretary Jorge Castaneda.

While other Latin American leaders have been waiting for U.S. foreign policy to adjust to the post-Sept. 11 scenario, Mexico has kept pushing its agenda with the United States, particularly on issues related to migration, where Mexico, as well as many southern U.S. businesses are demanding a more realistic approach.

According to Carol Graham, a security expert with the Brookings Institution, the initial concern that any issue affecting the United States' drive for greater homeland security, such as migration, would suffer after Sept. 11 has not materialized. On the contrary says Graham, the issue of U.S. security is precisely what is beginning to help Mexico's standing before Washington.

That Mexico's tourist spots are widely still considered to be safe destinations is illustrated by the quick recovery of the numbers of foreign visitors after the Sept. 11 drop. Even so, says Graham, it will take a while for this matter to normalize.

"Obviously for the moment, security issues will top the agenda," Graham says, especially regarding countries like Colombia (because of the guerrilla-drug trade factors), Venezuela (because of its oil) and Mexico (because of the border security concerns).

Even so, worries persist regarding the U.S.' tightening of border security, and merging several law enforcement corporations (including U.S. Customs, DEA, FBI, etc.). According to Steinberg and Michael Shifter, vice-president of Inter-American dialogue, the issue of greater border security is still being

debated in Washington.

One day, most probably in the next few decades, Sept. 11 will be better evaluated in the context of this century's history. Until then, said the panelists, it is advisable that Mexico maintain its proactive policy toward the United States and continue lobbying for the issues that it finds most important, working to form a consensus on the long list of pending matters.

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Jose Fernandez is a Mexico City-based freelance writer.