Oregon's economy `solid,' just not as `hot'.Byline: Randi Bjornstad The Register-Guard Six of the eight economic indicators Economic indicators The key statistics of the economy that reveal the direction the economy is heading in; for example, the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. tracked by the University of Oregon The University of Oregon is a public university located in Eugene, Oregon. The university was founded in 1876, graduating its first class two years later. The University of Oregon is one of 60 members of the Association of American Universities. declined in June, but Timothy Duy, director of the UO's Oregon Economic Forum, says it doesn't mean the sky is falling. "We're still solid, just not as hot as a few months ago," he said. Taken together, the eight dropped 0.3 of a point - to 103 compared with the benchmark of 100 established in 1997 - with improvement only in help-wanted advertising and the spread between long- and short-term interest rates Short-term interest rates Interest rates on loan contracts-or debt instruments such as Treasury bills, bank certificates of deposit or commerical paper-having maturities of less than one year. Often called money market rates. . The rest - initial unemployment claims, residential building permits, nonfarm payroll, weight/distance tax, consumer confidence and orders for manufactured goods manufactured goods npl → manufacturas fpl; bienes mpl manufacturados manufactured goods npl → produits manufacturés - all took a dip in June. Nonetheless, fears of a coming recession are not borne out by the forum's figures, Duy said. It takes a decline of more than 2 percent in the annualized annualized Of or relating to a variable that has been mathematically converted to a yearly rate. Inflation and interest rates are generally annualized since it is on this basis that these two variables are ordinarily stated and compared. six-month index, combined with a drop in more than half of the indicators, to signal the possibility of a recession, and that's not happening here, he said. The six-month annualized index stands at -0.6. The drop in at least two of the indicators had localized Translated into the spoken language of the country. See localization. causes, including a short-term labor strike of drywall workers and a nonfarm payroll number that came down from a spike in May but still exceeded the total for each of the first four months of the year. "The net story is that Oregon isn't immune to some of the national statistics that we've been seeing," Duy said. "I think we're going to be in a rebalancing Rebalancing The process of realigning the weightings of one's portfolio of assets. Notes: For example, if your portfolio's proportion of stock has grown too large for your intended assets weightings and risk tolerance, you might rebalance by selling some stock and putting process through the remainder of this year. But I see next year as moderately positive." Although initial unemploy- ment claims inched upward in June, they still remain close to historic average levels, he said. Although the state issued 43 percent fewer residential building permits in June 2007 than the same month a year ago, the drop in many other parts of the country has been more severe, Duy said. The seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Mathematically adjusted by moderating a macroeconomic indicator (e.g., oil prices/imports) so that relative comparisons can be drawn from month to month all year. weight-distance tax in Oregon remains steady, indicating stability in the trucking industry. However, the forum's statistics show that consumer confidence continues to slip, to its lowest point all year at 85.3, a steady decline from 96.9 in January. The way the Oregon Economic Forum's index is constructed, not only upward movement but "sideways movement" is consistent with continued economic growth, Duy said. For that reason, he foresees continued growth, albeit at a slower rate. |
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