One More Time.

With a sluggish economy, will Peruvians reelect President Alberto Fujimori for a third term?

PERUVIAN PRESIDENT ALBERTO FUJIMORI LIKES TO TAKE RISKS. He has been tempting fate since his first election in 1990 and, with few exceptions, has generally come out on top.

Fujimori's latest gamble is his decision to run for an unprecedented third term in Peru's April 9 elections. He is the early favorite, with between 40% and 45% of the electorate, depending upon the poll. But, as he knows all too well, anything can happen in the Peruvian electoral ring.

Fujimori is running against a crowded field of 10 candidates, most of whom are hammering away at links forged during his power. The main targets opposition candidates country's sluggish economy--particularly rising unemployment--and the lack of independence of the legislative and judicial branches of government.

Joblessness is the No.1 concern of Peruvians in all public opinion polls. Unemployment is hovering at 10%; according to government statistics. Another 53% of the work force is classified as "informal," meaning they lack any form of job security.

"Unemployment is the No. 1 problem," says opposition candidate Luis Castaneda Lossio, former head of Peru's social security system, who is currently No. 3 in the polls. "It is possible to generate jobs, but you need a long-term plan. That's what this government lacks and what we propose,"

Do-nothing Congress. The independence of the judicial and legislative branches is questioned across the board, from opposition parties to Wall Street to the U.S. State Department. Fujimori's "Change 90/New Majority" bloc in Congress controls 72 of the 120 seats in the unicameral body and is considered a rubber stamp for the president. "This is the most ineffective, unorganized and do-nothing Congress we have had in decades," says Representative Henry Pease, a candidate for the vice presidency on the opposition Union for Peru party ticket.

Problems in the judiciary are just as serious, with only 18% of Peruvians saying they have confidence in the courts in a recent survey by polling firm Apoyo. The U.S. State Department's 1998 human rights report says Peru's "justice system is inefficient, often corrupt, and has appeared to be easily manipulated by the executive branch."

"There is not a single institution that functions independently-everything is controlled by this government, which is a perverse, elected dictatorship," charges Alberto Andrade, the mayor of Lima and second-place presidential candidate.

The roots of these charges go back to 1992, when Fujimori made one of his riskiest decisions: dissolving Congress and the judiciary and ruling by decree in what he termed a "government of national reconstruction:" A constitutional assembly seated after the April 1992 "self-coup" rewrote the constitution, allowing for reelection. Fujimori ran and won in 1995 with more than 64% of the votes.

As soon as Fujimori was sworn in for a second term, his congressional majority began working to ensure it would not be his last, In 1996, they "interpreted" the constitution, ruling that the president had been elected under two different constitutions so he could be allowed to run again.

The illegal candidate. Congress fired three members of the country's Constitutional Tribunal in 1997 when it voted that the interpretation was unconstitutional; a year later, it rejected a signature drive to force the reelection question to a referendum. Despite the 1.5 million signatures gathered, Congress voted that only it could initiate the call for a referendum.

By deciding to run for a third term, which presidential candidate Andrade says is "unconstitutional, illegal and illegitimate:' Fujimori may be making his most serious gamble yet. While 56% of Peruvians approve of Fujimori's effectiveness in office, another 53% think his candidacy in the 2000 elections is illegal, according to a poll by the Peruvian Research Company.

Manuel Torrado, head of the polling firm Datum International, says Fujimori is walking on a razor's edge. According to Torrado's prediction, the president will not receive enough votes to win a third term in the first round of balloting. In Peru's electoral system, a candidate needs a majority to capture the presidency. If any one candidate fails to get a majority, the election goes to a second round between the two top finishers. But Torrado thinks Fujimori plays to win. "If he didn't think he could win, he wouldn't be running. he says.

Torrado warns, however, that a second round would be a blow to the president even if he does eventually triumph. Why? He would essentially lose the aura of a winner that bas characterized his government for 10 years. If Fujimori's party does not win a majority in Congress, it could prove to be more than just a slap to the ego.

Opposition candidates say Fujimori has stacked the deck to ensure victory. They accuse him of using state resources to finance his campaign, pointing specifically to the US$65 million the government spent on advertising throughout 1999, particularly on TV ads to promote its programs. The Peruvian government is now the country's biggest advertiser. "We recognize that the playing field is uneven and that the president candidate is using his office to campaign," says Federico Salas, mayor of the highland city of Huancavelica and candidate on the Avancemos party ticket. "We plan to win on ideas, which this government lacks."