On the Threshold of a New Atomic Age.

Cataclysmic change in energy sources will pose incredible challenges and opportunities for associations.

We are on the threshold of a new atomic age triggered by dwindling reserves of fossil fuels and growing demand for energy sources. This epoch promises to be a time of great challenge and opportunity for a wide variety of associations with interests tied to energy-related concerns. Consider these developing scenarios:

* Between 2050 and 2100, petroleum supplies will near depletion.

* Within 50 years, supplies of natural gas in the United States may run out.

* Long before 2050, the world will rely increasingly upon coal. While coal reserves are more abundant, experts predict 230 years of availability. Even with enhanced production efficiencies, resources represent a potential 500-year supply at most.

* After coal, nuclear power (fission) has been the second-largest supplier of electricity in the United States since 1996, but long lead times for construction, huge capital requirements, and adverse public opinion tend to discourage construction of reliable and cost-effective facilities.

* The global need for energy is growing and is likely to accelerate. Increases in demand for global energy are projected in the range of 34-44 percent compared to current usage by 2010 and 54-98 percent by 2020.

Demand for alternative energy sources will thus become an imperative between 2250 and 2500. Controlled thermonuclear fusion, which relies on the virtually limitless supply of hydrogen on Earth and throughout the entire universe, stands poised to usher in a new atomic age. Hydrogen in the Earth's oceans is estimated to meet world energy needs for 300 billion years. Beyond Earth's storehouse are vast amounts of hydrogen and helium that one day may be mined from the giant gas planets including Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. And by learning how to control the hydrogen-helium cycle that fuels Earth's sun, humans may eventually master controlled energy extraction from their own star furnaces. Remaining obstacles to controlling fusion, however, must first be overcome before thermonuclear technologies can dominate the economy.

Editor's note: The third millennium may have just begun, but it's never too soon to contemplate what role associations might play in our ever-changing world. This article, the fifth in a six-part series that began with the December 1999 issue of ASSOCIATION MANAGEMENT, explores how coming shifts in energy resources will usher in a new atomic age. Series author Graham T. T. Molitor, vice president and legal counsel, World Future Society, Bethesda, Maryland, and president, Public Policy Forecasting, Potomac, Maryland, describes the coming waves of economic activity he forecasts will dominate the United States and how these eras might impact associations. The remaining article in the series will explore a new space age. Molitor's new books, The Next 1,000 Years, and a multiple-volume Chronology of Civilization, comprehensively describing patterns of change, are scheduled for release in 2002.

As envisioned by Molitor, the new atomic age--triggered by dwindling reserves of fossil fuels--will allow thermonuclear fusion to take center stage. Care to debate any of Molitor's observations or assumptions? We'd love to share your perspective with other readers, so please e-mail your comments to [e-mail].

The magnitude of this coming energy shift is undeniably vast. The new atomic age will trigger a far-reaching ripple effect. Associations representing a wide variety of interests and industry sectors undoubtedly will become key players as this new economic era begins to unfold. (See sidebar, "Coming to Terms With Projected Energy Shifts.") Association executives will be called upon to help their industries and professions weather the coming storms of economic displacement, provide the leadership necessary to surmount challenges and seize opportunities, and offer the vision necessary to reinvent their organizations in a period of tumultuous change.

Why fusion will flourish

Before it's possible to understand just what thermonuclear fusion is and why it's becoming so important, one must first understand how it differs from nuclear fission. Nuclear fission, which first came onto the scene nearly 60 years ago when the United States detonated the atomic bomb that led to ending World War II, involves splitting large and heavy nuclei into lighter pieces. Since its inception, fission has been harnessed not only to create vast arsenals capable of inflicting nuclear annihilation, but to serve scores of peaceful purposes as well. By far, the most important application has been the generation of bountiful electric energy. Nuclear-power plants supply more electricity than oil, natural gas, and alternative energy sources combined. However, supplies of fissile elements are finite. Proven reserves used for conventional fission are expected to last only another 50 years.

Nuclear fusion differs markedly from fission. Fusion involves combining or fusing two light atomic nuclei--hydrogen and helium isotopes--to form a heavier element.

More than 40 years of intensive research has already been devoted to developing controlled thermonuclear fusion. Most difficult of all the obstacles still to be overcome in developing thermonuclear technology is attainment of the extraordinarily high temperatures and pressures necessary to break the nucleus of hydrogen--100 million degrees Celsius for heavy hydrogen (deuterium-tritium) reactions. Continuing advances could make thermonuclear fusion from hydrogen isotopes a commercial reality by 2025. At least another 12-25 years will be required to build facilities to supply energy.

Despite its promise, any type of nuclear energy development often invites political controversy. Recall how the public turned cautious following the March 1979 incident at the Three Mile Island reactor site in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and the April 1985 accidental meltdown at Chernobyl. At the center of the inevitable debates on topics concerning nuclear energy will be such associations as the International Nuclear Materials Managers, Nuclear Energy Institute, Institute of Nuclear Power Operations, and the American Nuclear Society; they and other groups will be in the forefront as the potential of the new atomic age unfolds.

With nuclear-fission plants apparently headed for displacement by fusion technology, some nations are already gearing up to change course:

* Iceland has already planned to switch to a hydrogen-based energy economy between 2012 and 2017.

* Italy has phased out nuclear fission entirely by shutting down its three plants.

* Austria has imposed a complete nuclear moratorium and plant phaseout.

* Quasi-moratoria exist in Switzerland and Sweden.

* Germany's ruling coalition has announced goals to phase out all of the nation's 19 nuclear reactors.

* The United States hasn't built a new nuclear power plant since 1973. Operating plants have decreased from 112 units in 1990 to 104 in 1998.

Looking after immediate and long-term dimensions of the supply and demand of electricity are numerous associations including the Electric Power Supply Association, Electric Association, Edison Electric Institute, Electric and Gas Industries Association, National Electrical Manufacturers Association, Electronic Industries Alliance, Electrical Electronics Materials Distributors Association, and Electrical Apparatus Service Association.

Petroleum industry gears up for great change

Chairman and CEO Mike Bowlin of ARCO (which recently merged with BP Amoco) perhaps said it best when he stated in 1999: "We've embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil." Industry experts project that petroleum reserves will run dry by 2050. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) foresees supplies lasting until 2080. American Petroleum Institute estimates of 1.4-2.0 trillion barrels, including probable new discoveries and technologies, are projected to provide supplies for another 63-95 years. Petroleum is available in other forms, such as tar sands and oil shale, but the current cost of extraction discourages exploitation.

Worldwide consumption amounted to 74 million barrels of crude oil daily in 1998. Experts forecast that production will peak at 85 million barrels per day by 2010. Thereafter, output may drop to as little as 30 million barrels by 2025-2030, and 15 million between 2035 and 2050.

As petroleum and natural gas supplies dwindle to precariously low levels by approximately 2050, they will no longer be burned as fuel. Use will be largely confined to the value-added end of the spectrum. Petroleum distillates and byproducts provide a virtual cornucopia of end uses that directly or indirectly affect activities of literally thousands of associations. Prominent among those end-use products are many not normally associated with crude petroleum: gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene, lubricants, illuminants, plastics, synthetic fibers, dyes, solvents, paints, paraffin, insecticides, fertilizers, synthetic rubber, explosives, polishes, toiletries, pharmaceuticals, food preservatives, adhesives, detergents, and hundreds of others too numerous to mention. The interests of these far-flung products and industries are represented by such prominent associations as the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association, American Plastics Council, Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association, American Chemistry Council (formerly known as the Chemical Manufacturers Association), American Chemical Society, and the Plastics Pipe Institute.

Anticipating massive obsolescence 

Shifting away from petroleum and internal combustion engines entails enormous economic ramifications. Institutions and resources comprising petroleum and related sectors-pumping, shipping, refining, storing and distributing, and end uses-will incur unavoidable dislocations, substitutions, and costs.

For example, what is to become of the huge investments in oil-drilling equipment, pipelines, oil tankers, refining plants, distribution equipment, gasoline stations, and so forth? What happens to gasoline engine manufacturing? Not only motor vehicles, but all other equipment powered by gasoline, diesel, propane, and natural gas will be affected. Watercraft, skimobiles, all-terrain vehicles, auxiliary generators, and the entire arsenal of war machines (from aircraft carriers to the HUMVEE) are among the interests facing massive changeover. Gas-fired boilers, residential heating and cooling systems, and appliances of all kinds also could become obsolete or require major retrofitting.

Associations will play a key role in helping their industries and professions come to terms with inevitable transitions. The roster of organizations representing petroleum interests encompass some of the most powerful of all business associations: American Petroleum Institute, Petroleum Marketers Association of America, Petroleum Equipment Institute, Petroleum Equipment Suppliers Association, and the National Petroleum Management Association.

With the end of finite resources more clearly in sight, attitudes are divided into two camps: I) those who fear the worst and opine that we will run out of everything, bringing society to a screeching halt; and 2) those with abiding optimism who believe new ways will be found to deconstruct and reconstruct matter as well as to mine resources elsewhere in the cosmos that will satisfy our every need.

Transportation in turmoil

Economic significance of the automotive sector cannot be understated as the new atomic age gains ascendance. Motor vehicles of every kind and description are fully represented by a vast range of association specialists who will feel the heat of the transition in energy resources. Among them are the American Automobile Association, National Automobile Dealers Association, American Car Rental Association, American Motorcyclist Association, American Public Transportation Association, Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association, National Bus Traffic Association, and National Tank Truck Carriers, Inc.

Demonstrating the significance of the various sectors in their use of energy, transportation accounts for 62 percent of domestic oil consumption, compared to 25 percent for industry and 9 percent for commercial and residential users.

Worldwide, the number of motor cars and trucks in service is expected to double, rising from 625 million in 1996 to 1.25 billion by 2036. In China, the most populous nation in the world, only one of every 690 people owns a car. The handwriting is on the wall when it comes to huge increases in energy usage.

Add to that airline passenger volume, which is poised to skyrocket, driving greater demand for gasoline and kerosene fuels. Airline passengers, numbering 243 million in 1978, more than doubled to 599 million by 1998, and are projected to reach 900 million by 2007, according to Federal Aviation Administration estimates. Organizations representing aircraft interests will continue to help members respond to these sweeping changes and include the National Air Transportation Association, Air Transport Association, Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, Airline Suppliers Association, and Aircraft Electronics Association.

Transitional solutions

Fortunately, other natural fuels can bridge some of the gap.

Coal. Coal can be converted into liquid fuel and used as a substitute for gasoline and aircraft fuel. Coal production levels indicate a 230-year supply that could extend to 400-500 years if enhanced efficiencies are applied. Compared to other energy sources, 95 percent of known U.S. coal supplies remain untapped and available. In fact, coal is expected to become the dominant U.S. energy source for many years to come, bridging the gap between the period when traditional petroleum and natural gas supplies fade and the time when hydrogen and helium for thermonuclear energy generation become commercially viable, cost effective, and widespread.

Undoubtedly, coal's domineering role in the coming years will have great impact on the activities of a host of prominent organizations. Organizations including the Coal Technology Association, National Coal Council, and American Coke and Coal Chemicals Institute will feel the effects of everything from extraction to processing and manufacturing to the final phase of dealing with byproducts--including waste and all other end products.

Natural gas. Still another cushion against depletion of petroleum and the shock of OPEC oil price increases yet to come is natural gas. Confirmed U.S. reserves amount to a 12-year supply. Suspected reserves extend domestic availability to a total of 50 years. Should it become technically and financially possible to extract supplies from shale, coal deposits, sandstone, and quantities mixed with salt water under the Gulf of Mexico, supplies could last as long as 200 years.

World consumption of natural gas, measured in terms of million tons of oil equivalent, skyrocketed from 187 in 1950 to 1,022 in 1970, and more than doubled to 2,210 in 1998. Enormous accelerated use has been jolted by the fact that natural gas burns cleaner than most other fuels, costs iess, and enjoys considerable environmental advantages over competing energy sources. It's worth noting that most of the world's known natural gas reserves are situated in the former Soviet Union.

Across the years, prominent associations representing gas industry interests have included the American Gas Association, American Public Gas Association, Gas Processors Association, and Gas Research Institute.

Alternative motor fuels. Nascent motor vehicle uses of natural gas, methanol, ethanol, butane, propane, and other interim cleaner-burning fuels may provide a transition from gasoline to hydrogen-powered vehicles. The Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition spearheads these developments.

Natural-gas-powered vehicles have been in use for decades, especially in European nations. Some taxis in New York City and Hartford, Connecticut, already use natural gas as do some buses in Vancouver, Chicago, and elsewhere. Across the United States, 1,312 natural-gas refueling stations have opened. Servicing mainly fleet vehicles, buses, and trucks, however, very few of these filling stations are open to the public.

It's true that compressed natural gas tanks are bulky, heavy, costly, and limited in capacity. At the same time, advanced materials, including high-density polyurethane and carbon-fibersandwiched construction, counteract many of these limitations.

Hydrogen assumes Key position

Ultimately, hydrogen, not natural gas, will become the primary energy source for motorized transport. Hydrogen, the lightest and most abundant element, comprises 76 percent of all mass in the universe and 93 percent of the total number of atoms. Earth's solar system itself is made up of 70.68 percent hydrogen, most of it in the sun and on or surrounding the giant gas planets. Most of Earth's supply occurs in liquid form as water, as an admixture of atmospheric gasses, and as solids in ice and a wide variety of chemical compounds. One gram of hydrogen converted into helium can produce an amount of energy equivalent to 20 tons of coal. Isotopic and antimatter forms of hydrogen and helium increase energy output more than one thousand-fold.

Changeover from gasoline engines to gaseous fuels and to hydrogen-fueled vehicles requires transitioning to ease the financial burdens resulting from the obsolescence of liquid-fueled equipment.

Natural gas pipelines, pumping stations, and distribution lines may be able to convert to hydrogen with relatively modest capital costs. Seals and compressors would have to be changed, pipe diameters may have to be increased, and additional pipelines would have to be built. Remote areas could be served by truck or train delivery of hydrogen in liquefied form, while ships for transporting liquefied gasses also could be converted to carry hydrogen.

Meanwhile, scientists are working on a unit the size of a wine bottle-- called a plasmatron--that can transform gasoline into hydrogen-rich gas. Electric arcs create conditions and temperatures to convert resulting fuel-air mixtures into a plasma. Much larger versions of such equipment, already used for industrial purposes, are driven by hydrocarbon fuels converted into hydrogen-rich gas mixtures.

Hydrogen fueling stations for motor vehicles are beginning to emerge. The first public filling station dispensing hydrogen opened in 1999 at the Munich airport: Both liquefied and gaseous hydrogen fuels are available.

Liquefied hydrogen requires cryogenic storage at -423 degrees Fahrenheit. Gaseous hydrogen, stored in high-pressure tanks, is used by motor buses. In the United States, the first hydrogen fueling station--an experimental facility used by the Ford Motor Company to test new concepts--opened in Dearborn, Michigan, during the summer of 1999.

Storing hydrogen, however, is not easy. Compressed hydrogen gas stored in high-pressure tanks provides a denser fuel source. Heavily clad tanks are required to safely contain potentially explosive contents.

Liquefied hydrogen stored under pressure at cryogenic temperatures (-250 degrees Celsius or -423 degrees Fahrenheit) provides another approach. Hydrogen liquefies at the lowest temperature of any element and requires bulky and costly cryogenic auxiliary equipment that sharply curtails use.

Storage of metal hydride in solid form is the safest approach. Compounds including titanium-iron and magnesium-nickel, possess a strong affinity for hydrogen and are virtual sponges capable of storing large volumes of hydrogen. One shortcoming is weight: Tanks weigh 800 pounds and provide a mere four-gallon equivalent of gasoline. Carbon nanotubes (see "The Brave New World of Meta-Materials" in the July 2000 issue of ASSOCIATION MANAGEMENT), measuring a few dozen atoms wide, combined with lithium and potassium store large quantities of hydrogen at normal pressure. Carbon nanofiber mass of merely one gram can deliver 10 liters of hydrogen--an energy density of 16,000 watt-hours per kilogram. A single carbon nanotube cell could provide a 5,000-mile cruising range for cars.

Safe and manageable hydrogen energy systems will be developed, as they were for gasoline. Gasoline, it should be noted, is dangerous and flammable in concentrations as small as 1 percent, compared to 4 percent concentration for hydrogen and 5 percent for natural gas. In fact, the potential for damage by gasoline is elevated because it is a heavy fuel, whereas light and volatile hydrogen quickly dissipates.

Industry has learned how to minimize gasoline dangers and will do likewise for hydrogen. Until small-size hydrogen fusion systems are developed, researchers will have to devise ways to use abundant hydrogen in more conventional ways. The National Hydrogen Association, of course, will play a large part in facilitating the development of these new technologies involving hydrogen.

Another approach for generating hydrogen supplies calls for erecting in desert areas photovoltaic cells that use the electricity generated to electrolytically separate hydrogen from oxygen in water. This arrangement would provide raw hydrogen to fuel thermonuclear plants for generating massive amounts of electric power and heat.

Other new developments, including one that uses sunlight striking water spiked with catalysts to generate hydrogen, also show promise. So-called water splitters may provide an inexpensive source of hydrogen to power fuel cells or for raw material pursuant to fusion energy. Organizations including the American Solar Energy Society, Inc., Electrophoreses Society, and Electrochemical Society, Inc., are playing a role in such developments.

The pitfalls and promise of fuel cells

Fuel cells, similar to batteries, convert chemical energy into electrical energy and heat. Chemical reactions with an electrolyte can be fueled by hydrogen, kerosene, or other industrial gas.

Some studies forecast that 10,000 motor vehicles will be operating on fuel cells by 2003. DaimlerChrysler introduced a four-passenger car in 1999 that runs on liquid hydrogen and has a cruising range of 280 miles per tank of fuel. Also under development is a fuel cell using methanol that is broken down into hydrogen, which is used, in turn, to run fuel cells.

Cost, however, is certain to pose obstacles. Mass-produced fuel cells designed for motor vehicles currently cost around $30,000--about 10 times the cost of gas-powered motors, according to Daimler-Chrysler estimates. Demonstration buses using these technologies--already operating in Chicago, Washington, D.C., and Vancouver--sell for $1.2 million compared to diesel buses that sell for $250,000. In addition, space and weight requirements to accommodate fuel-cell systems pose both design and mileage-efficiency obstacles. Another problem involves limited operating range and a dearth of recharging facilities.

On the plus side, fuel cells involve no moving parts, require less maintenance (compared to gasoline engines), are energy efficient, and generate few undesirable emissions. Fuel-cell sales totaled $305 million in 1998. Sales volume for 2003 could reach $1.1 billion, and possibly $10 billion by 2010.

In addition to motorized-vehicle applications, residential systems may help boost hydrogen use. Residential fuel-cell units about the size of a regular furnace generating 3 kilowatts have recently been developed. Typical household electric use ranges between 2 and 10 kilowatts, averaging 1.5 kilowatts of power. Units eventually are expected to cost about $3,000. Operating costs of about 8 cents per kilowatt hour compare favorably with average current household energy costs that range between 4 and 12 cents per kilowatt hour. Developers foresee a potential U.S. market for 25 million units. Yet another facet of hydrogen-based energy system development involves the design of miniature fuel cells for use in portable electronic devices.

Numerous associations representing major household utilities and appliances have enormous interests at stake involving obsolescence of existing equipment dictated by shifting energy sources. They include the Gas Appliance Manufacturers Association, National Propane Gas Association, Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers, Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute, National Association of Oil Heating Service Managers, and the all-inclusive American Society of Heating and Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers.

While it may be difficult, if not impossible, to foresee all the changes heralded by a new atomic age, it is certain that this coming economic era promises to transform the association community in countless ways. Visionary association executives will truly be in demand as this period of tumultuous change unfolds.

Graham T. T. Molitor is vice president and legal counsel, World Future Society, Bethesda, Maryland, and president, Public Policy Forecasting, Potomac, Maryland.

Coming to Terms With Projected Energy Shifts

Here are just a few of the questions that association executives will undoubtedly grapple with as the new atomic age creates complex issues that have no easy answers.

* What alternative energy sources are on the horizon?

* Can associations representing natural resources shift their focus to other energy sources?

* As the availability of clean fuels wane, what additional environmental controls can be anticipated?

* Given that petroleum will be depleted first, is development of alternatively powered motor vehicles moving along fast enough?

* Is sufficient attention being devoted to fusion research and development?

* Will fusion resolve global warming trends?

* What can associations in the United States learn from nations that have phased out nuclear fission?

* How important to member needs is low-cost, plentiful energy?

* Are government regulators likely to impose heavy taxes, fees, and controls to restrict and discourage motor vehicle use?

* Who bears the financial burden of obsolete energy investments and infrastructures?

* Do coming energy crunches necessitate global cooperative efforts to speed up development of alternative fuels as well as new motor vehicle and aircraft technologies?