On the Threshold: Projects for Accelerating Human Development in the 21st Century.

A Century in Restrospect

On the threshold of the new millennium, human development is at a major crossroad. The twenty-first century will be shaped by the development choices we make today. Those choices will either lead to the eradication of poverty or will deepen it. They will determine whether all economies become truly integrated or whether some of them become increasingly marginalized. At this juncture, the development path that countries will take is not predestined.

Progress in human development is fragile and can be reversed. As we start the twenty-first century, all regions have lost the momentum for achieving poverty reduction goals and the number of poor people in most developing nations is rising. This reflects faltering growth in East Asia and Latin America, continuing slow growth in sub-Saharan Africa and a sharp decline in living standards in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union during the difficult transition to modern market economies. Human development is being further halted by the emergence of new health problems, in particular HIV/AIDS, which is now the number one overall cause of death in Africa and has moved up to fourth place among all causes of death worldwide. While the epicentre of the disease is in southern Africa, it is spreading fast to other regions.

Ten years ago, the private sector invested $35 billion in developing countries, while official development assistance (ODA) was $65 billion. Today, private sector investment in developing countries has grown to $300 billion, while ODA has dwindled to $45 billion. But 70 per cent of those private capital flows went to 12 out of 108 developing countries. Sub-Saharan Africa received less than 5per cent of that share. More than 80 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe have lower per capita incomes than a decade ago.

In an increasingly interdependent world, the manifestation of extreme poverty and the growing gap between the rich and the poor decrease the prospects for global integration and peace and security. The challenges of development can only be met through coordinated and adequately funded international efforts. The international community, led by the United Nations family, should spearhead these efforts to assist countries unleash the positive forces of the global market, attract private capital, accelerate the momentum for poverty reduction and reduce the risk of increased marginalization and inequality.

The next century could be shaped into one of unprecedented improvement in the quality of life for people everywhere. Success is within reach of national Governments and their internal and external partners if they take effective public actions to develop policies and institutions that promote inclusive growth. Such actions include: creating enabling conditions for all economies to compete fairly in the global economy; establishing strategic partnerships with all stakeholders; and supporting national Governments to design and implement human-centred, equitable and participatory programmes.

Globalization can unleash the positive forces of the global market if effective public action is taken at the national and international levels to develop the institutions and policies that would bring about inclusive growth. In addition, globalization can also facilitate the unleashing of our combined efforts and expertise to reach global solutions. This would reduce the disparities across and within countries, bring more and more people into the economic mainstream and promote equitable access to the benefits of development.

Human development and economic growth are mutually reinforcing; for development to be sustainable, both should be accelerated in tandem. Markets must, therefore, be supplemented with investments in human capital at four levels. Firstly, in order to build secure foundations for growth and development, countries need to complete the unfinished agenda of the twentieth century by accelerating expansion of equitable, broad-based and quality basic services: education, especially of girls; primary health care; adequate food; clean water; and sanitation. Secondly, countries will need to simultaneously address the agenda of the twenty-first century in order to become competitive participants in a global economy and bridge the digital divide. They will need to develop policies and institutions that promote science, technology and enterprise, actions which encourage high levels of private and public investment as a means of creating jobs and stimulating economic growth. Thirdly, the poor need to be active participants in the design and implementation of development programmes. This is not just good for building social capital, but it also ensures that resources benefit the most needy. And, finally, these actions must be rooted in processes that are socially inclusive and responsive to changing circumstances and which work in the interests of the poor, for example, by providing adequate basic services.

Several global initiatives demonstrate the importance of developing strategic alliances. UNAIDS--the joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS--has rapidly become a powerful global force in the fight against the disease. The Onchocerciasis Control Programme, established to eliminate river blindness, and the international programme to eliminate polio are outstanding examples of successful and value-enhancing partnerships. The "Education for All" initiative, launched 10 years ago, has proved to be an effective mechanism for galvanizing international and national actions towards the attainment of education for all.

Some new players have altered the dynamics of the development agenda. The current debt relief programme was reshaped and strengthened, in part because of sustained pressure from several non-governmental organizations. Oxfam has proposed a Global Action Plan for Basic Education that would mobilize resources, push harder for debt relief, and engender national commitment and reform in education, with emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. The private sector is becoming an increasingly important player in the social sectors, especially in health. For example, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation supports vaccine research, while the SmithKline Beecham company offers a free drug supply for the treatment of filiaris. All these relationships need to be effectively managed and leveraged.

Countries need integrated policy packages and institutional environments that foster transparency and accountability, reward hard work and creativity, and facilitate participation. The World Bank has scaled up its efforts to strengthen the interdependence of policies through the Comprehensive Development Framework, which is being piloted in 13 countries. It aims to sharpen the focus on the major goals of development, highlight the integrated nature of policy-making, emphasize institutional processes required to sustain development and coordinate development efforts. The framework underscores the growing realization that the many elements that make up the development process must be planned together and coordinatedinorder to obtain the best results. It seeks a better balance in development efforts by emphasizing the interdependence of all elements of development--economic, financial, social, and structural--governance and the environment. It is anchored in the principles of ownership of the policy agenda and on a long-term holistic vision.

International development goals have been agreed upon as global milestones against which progress towards the goal of poverty elimination can be measured.

Progress on attaining these goals, however, has been disappointing, and most of them will not be met by the target date. Current forecasts indicate that only South Asia and China will be able to grow at such a rate as to achieve the international goal of a 50-per-cent reduction in poverty1 by 2015. Such progress can be accelerated through renewed emphasis on quality social service delivery, with increased focus on the poorest countries in Africa and South Asia, which are also most vulnerable to the forces of globalization. Developing countries need financial and technical assistance to support economic reform efforts, invest in growth and expand access and quality. At a time when many countries have been undertaking fundamental reforms, the level of ODA has been steadily declining: between 1992 and 1997, it fell 20 per cent in real terms and declined by 7 billion in 1997. Appropriate and effective aid levels need to be established to give Governments the space they need to put economic reforms on a self-susta ining path. In addition, development assistance needs to be restructured to focus on people-centred, inclusive development.

The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative arose out of a recognition that high levels of debt act as a serious brake to sustainable development. It was launched in 1996 by the World Bank, with support from other partners and endorsed by 180 Governments worldwide. Following the Cologne Summit in June 1999, HIPO was expanded to provide more debt relief to more countries and redesigned to link debt relief to poverty reduction. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are collaborating closely to integrate poverty reduction into the debt programme.

When all is said and done, responsibility and accountability for poverty reduction and human development rest with the countries. Strong political and intellectual leadership is a necessary condition for effectively utilizing international support. There must be a vision and the political will to design and implement the policies needed to establish the foundations for economic growth and reduce poverty, promote good governance and the rule of law. The international community, however, should remain an effective catalyst for change, sharing international experiences on what works and what does not work, and supporting countries to customize global standards into local situations.

Ruth Kagia is Director, Human Development, at the World Bank. This article is an excerpt from a paper she presented to the United Nations University conference on global governance.

Information Technology and Human Development

There is no doubt that the technological revolution will have an enormous impact on development. Well-harnessed information technology can enable countries to share experiences and promote cross-fertilization of ideas. The Africa Virtual University is a good example of effective harnessing of information technology. Using satellite links and the Internet, university students in 12 African countries are able to access the latest knowledge in science and engineering from several industrialized countries. The World Links Programme connects secondary school students across the world on the Internet, broadening their horizons beyond the confines of a classroom. Still, much more could be done to improve education through more widespread use of information technology.