Oil prices and election blur crystal ball of forecasters.

ALTHOUGH it's not quite the holiday shopping season, forecasters are already making projections about the final tally come January. But with gasoline prices on the rise and September showing a second consecutive monthly drop in consumer confidence, they might want to consider a dart board this time out.

Generally, projections of sales gains by Wall Street analysts, consultants and accounting firms have been in the 4 percent to 7 percent growth range, which given a still-uncertain economy would be viewed as solid results.

So how reliable are these numbers?

"You have to take them for what they are," said Richard Giss, partner in the Los Angeles office of Deloitte & Touche. "A survey is a snapshot at a point in time and it's impacted by what's going on at that point in time. So much of retail at the holiday season is emotional as opposed to empirical that it can change pretty dramatically. It's more art than science and anybody who has tried to make it a science over the years has had an awful lot of disappointment along the way."

The track record of forecasters is, at best, a mixed bag. In 2002, the National Retail Federation projected a 4 percent increase in holiday sales but the number turned out to be 1.2 percent. But Ernest & Young LLP was just a half-percentage point off in its forecast last year.

While it's easier to more accurately forecast what will happen closer to the holiday season, analysts have been clamoring to issue their reports earlier in a bid to satisfy retailers who want to know as early as possible what to expect from shoppers.

"There's no point in coming out with a holiday shopping survey the week after Thanksgiving," said Aubie Goldenberg, a partner in the retail group at Ernst & Young in Los Angeles, who projected that local holiday sales in Los Angeles would come in at 6 percent or slightly lower, a little under E&Y's nationwide projection.

To arrive at the early data, all economists typically plow through the same stuff: unemployment and interest rates, consumer confidence, personal income, housing starts and back-to-school sales. In addition, there often are separate surveys of retailers and shoppers.

But that information sometimes lacks imponderables, such as the effects of a presidential election, oil supplies and concern over terrorist attacks. One other imponderable: the always fickle consumer.

"There is always an element of speculation in holiday forecasts," said Ellen Tolley, a spokeswoman for the National Retail Federation. "In order to provide accurate holiday forecasts, you've got to be realistic, you've got to be educated on what retail really is, and you've got to have a good grasp on what has happened and what you can't conceive of happening."

While forecasters try to satisfy retailer curiosity about the holiday season, which can represent more than half of annual earnings, by the time projections come out in September it's often too late to be of much use.

"They've had to buy much earlier and had to set sell plans," said Giss. "The way retailers react is if the data suggests that consumers are not going to spend, and that's at odds with what retailers prepared for, it may make it quicker for them to pull the trigger on promotional activities."

As for those promotions, however, Tolley doesn't expect prices this season to be slashed as they have in previous years.

"For the past few years, retailers have been a little reactive when comes to discounting," she said. "This year, retailers have been able to control their inventory and have been executing planned promotions but haven't been marking down merchandise because they were worried."

Staff reporter Matt Myerhoff contributed to this column. Staff reporter Rebecca Flass can be reached at [phone], ext. 230, or at [e-mail].