Oil Demand - Cont' From OMT - ExxonMobil Says World'll Need 60% More Energy.

In its annual outlook, ExxonMobil on Dec. 13 said the world's energy consumption will rise 60% over the next 25 years. Energy demand will grow to 334 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2030, up from 205 million boe/d in 2000.

Jaime Spellings, head of ExxonMobil's corporate planning, said during a webcast of the outlook's presentation that oil consumption will grow 1.4% annually, and demand for natural gas will grow 1.8% per annumr. Oil and gas will account for 60% of the world's energy needs, the same share they hold today, according to Spellings.

Most of the growth will occur in developing countries, he said. OPEC will have a progressively larger share of the world's oil production as non-OPEC output growth flattens around 2010, Spellings said. To satisfy growing crude oil thirst, OPEC will have to produce more than 47m b/d by 2030, a 40% increase over current levels, Spellings said, adding: "We're very confident that that growth will happen".

The planet's remaining crude oil resource base - about 2.2 trillion barrels, excluding non-conventional oil - can support that growth, according to Spellings. The Middle East and Russia hold most of remaining reserves, he said.

North American natural gas demand will grow 0.5% per year to 90 BCF/day, with domestic production expected to decline by 2030 from close to 80 BCF/day to slightly above 60 BCF/day. Liquified natural gas (LNG) imports will account for the difference.

LNG will make regional prices converge over time, said Spellings. "You will see a trend towards LNG looking more like oil and dampening intra-regional volatility", he said.

Asian demand for natural gas will triple from around 30 NCF/day to 90 BCF/day, on par with North America, Spellings said.

Technology and energy efficiency improvements, expected to dampen demand, are already factored in the ExxonMobil outlook, Spellings said.

EIA Sees OPEC Producing 36.9M B/D By 2010, But Worries Over 2025 Horizon:

In its annual energy outlook, the US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees OPEC increasing oil production to 36.9m b/d by 2010, which is slightly higher than its forecast last year of 35.8m b/d. Its head, Guy Caruso, on Dec. 12 noted that the number reflected Saudi Arabia successfully meeting its target to increase production capacity to 12.5m b/d by late 2009, saying: "We're counting on the Saudis to make their 12.5 [m b/d] capacity target".

Still, the EIA revised down its projections for the amount of oil OPEC will produce in 2025. According to the report, the EIA now forecasts OPEC producing 44m b/d of crude oil in 20 years - a projection which is 11m b/d lower than what it predicted last year.

The 2006 outlook's forecast of 44m b/d of OPEC production in 2025 was 44% higher than the 31m b/d produced in 2004.

The EIA's view of non-OPEC oil production in 2025 is slightly higher than forecast a year ago. The 2006 outlook projects non-OPEC output at 67m b/d in 2025, versus 65m b/d forecast for the 2005 outlook.