ON THE MONEY TRAIL; VARGAS HEADED FOR BIG PAYDAY, BUT MUST GET BY MARQUEZ.

Byline: Michael Rosenthal Staff Writer

Fernando Vargas, only 21, is heading in the direction of obscene riches and fame.

At the moment, he has a world championship and a pristine record - 16 fights, 16 knockouts - and he recently signed the first of what could be a series of lucrative endorsement deals. Next stop: The very good life.

All the Oxnard resident has to do is keep winning, which is where Raul Marquez comes in.

Vargas makes the second defense of his IBF junior middleweight title against Marquez - the former IBF champ - tonight at Caesars Tahoe in what is expected to be a warm-up for such future opponents as David Reid and Oscar De La Hoya and those huge paydays.

It's the kind of fight that makes you wince before it even happens.

Vargas, who will earn $500,000 to Marquez's $100,000, is a richly talented boxer-puncher who has dismissed each of his opponents with ease, the last of whom was unknown Briton Howard Clarke in March.

He knocked out rugged Yory Boy Campas in seven rounds to win the championship in December, the same Campas who stopped Marquez (30-1, 20 KOs) in eight rounds to take the title a year earlier.

OK, just because A defeated B and B defeated C doesn't mean A will defeat C. Time and again, such logic has proved to be flawed in this unpredictable sport.

However, one wonders.

Marquez, like Vargas a former Olympian, is a capable but limited boxer whose principal strength might be his dubious ability to absorb an inordinate number of hard punches.

On top of that, he has extremely tender skin: He was cut badly in a controversial victory over Keith Mullings in September of 1997 and, less than three months later, a competitive fight with Campas was stopped because his eyes were swollen shut.

It's no wonder he's a 9-1 underdog.

``He can take punishment. That's it,'' said Vargas, who has shown Marquez little respect leading up to the fight. ``(Left-handers) are normally crafty, like Pernell Whitaker. They're hard to hit. (Marquez) isn't. He wants me to come in and exchange punches. That's great for me.

``The name of the game is hit and not be hit. He'll see a lot of head movement, a lot of feints and a lot of punches.''

Marquez (30-1, 28 KOs) insists a lot of people will be surprised.

He admits that Mullings gave him a surprisingly tough time in a fight many believe Mullings won. However, he's convinced he won and points out that a close victory over a fighter of Mullings' ability is no disgrace. Mullings did go on to win the WBC junior middleweight championship.

The Campas fight? He says he should never have taken it. His face, battered so badly against Mullings, hadn't healed. He agreed to the fight in good part to redeem himself amid the criticism following the Mullings fight and lived to regret it.

Marquez, 27, then took nine months off to give his face - and his psyche - time to recuperate. He subsequently outpointed journeymen Shibata Flores and Michael Lerma - with no damage to his face.

``Vargas, a lot of people are saying I cut easy and this and that,'' Marquez said. ``I fought twice since the Campas fight and my face is fine. It's not a factor.''

Well, we'll see about that.

Again, Marquez is the type of fighter who aggressively pursues his opponent. Typically, he'll take punches to give them.

And he does intend to give them. He expects Vargas to stay on the move but promises to chase him down. And, when he catches him, he said he'll expose Vargas as nothing resembling the next coming of Roberto Duran, and he'll instantly resurrect his own career.

``He's good,'' Marquez said. ``He's just not what he's being hyped up to be. And if he is, I want to see it.''

He might be better off shutting his eyes.

Notes: Vargas provided a glimpse of what might be expected tonight during Friday's weigh-in.

After the fighters were weighed - Vargas 154 pounds, Marquez 153 - they stood nose to nose and talked some serious trash.

Suddenly, Marquez flexed and slapped his right bicep in a display of machismo. Vargas then one-upped him, shoving the challenger forcefully in the chest and knocking him back a few feet before officials jumped in to restore order.

Marquez had better do a better job of blocking Vargas' punches tonight. . . .

Vargas' manager, Rolando Arellano, said plans to fight Ike Quartey before a pending matchup with WBA junior middleweight champion David Reid next summer have been scrapped.

The Vargas camp doesn't want to take such a risk before what could be a very lucrative fight with Reid. Arellano expects Vargas to fight two lesser opponents as tuneups for Reid and possibly face Quartey afterward.

FERNANDO VARGAS (16-0, 16 KOs) vs. RAUL MARQUEZ (30-1, 28 KOs)

When: Tonight

Where: Ceasars Tahoe, in Lake Tahoe.

TV: HBO Boxing After Dark, 11:15 p.m.

Also fighting: David Tua faces Gary Bell in a 12-round heavyweight bout.

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PHOTO Fernando Vargas, the International Boxing Federation junior middleweight champion, stares down former IBF junior middleweight champ Raul Marquez. Vargas, from Oxnard, is 16-0.

Andy Barron/Associated Press