ON THE FOURTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE 9-11 TERRORIST ATTACKS AND IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE KATRINA'S DEVASTATION, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIANS NEED ANSWERS TO THIS QUESTION: ARE WE READY?

Byline: Josh Kleinbaum and Rachel Uranga Staff Writers

When the long-feared Big One finally hits Southern California, it will come with the element of surprise of the 9-11 attacks compounded by the fury of nature - like that unleashed by Hurricane Katrina.

Experts warn Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to deal with the calamity - likely an earthquake at least magnitude 7.0 - despite the millions of dollars spent each year to train and equip emergency workers who have demonstrated their skill in numerous disasters, from quakes to floods to firestorms.

``Most people don't realize how bad off we are,'' said Terry O'Sullivan, a homeland security analyst at the University of Southern California.

Observing today's anniversary of the 2001 terrorist assault on America and continuing to watch the aftermath of the nation's worst-ever natural disaster in New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, Southern California is looking at its own efforts to plan for catastrophe, and the view is troubling.

Officials have developed no large-scale plan for evacuating the city of 3.8 million residents.

The Los Angeles River is lined with concrete to prevent localized flooding, but the dams that control runoff from the Sierra were built before World War II. Outmoded natural gas pipelines underlie the region. The city is dotted with old, seismically unsafe buildings. And an already overtaxed public health care system would be hard-pressed to handle the casualties in a major disaster.

``We are prepared organizationally - probably one of the best in the country,'' O'Sullivan said. ``But in terms of responding to a disaster, we just don't have the infrastructure.''

Misguided dollars?

Three out of every four dollars spent on homeland security preparedness - $3.4 billion proposed for 2006 - have been geared toward preparing for a terrorist attack, according to a government accountability report on first responders.

While some experts say that money should be spent instead on natural disaster planning, state officials note that the preparedness programs benefit all kinds of catastrophes.

Moreover, the public health system is strained by the skyrocketing costs of treating a growing number of uninsured patients, the high cost of medical care and an aging infrastructure.

After New York City's response to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks highlighted communication and other emergency-response problems, police and fire agencies across the rest of the country scrambled to resolve those problems in their own departments.

Southern California officials now believe their communication systems are state-of-the-art.

Los Angeles County's $22 million Emergency Operations Center coordinates efforts among agencies from 88 cities. The state's Standardized Emergency Management System ensures that all agencies speak the same language, avoiding bureaucratic delays in disaster response.

The Los Angeles Police Department created a Bureau of Homeland Security in 2003, and the department received $23.6 million in federal funds for homeland security in 2003 and 2004. The city beefed up security at ports and potential targets, creating a complex computer program to pinpoint those targets.

Although some experts believe the focus on terrorism has hurt planning for natural disasters, officials disagree.

``When you prepare for the consequences of a terrorist situation, you are preparing yourself inevitably for an earthquake, fire or flood,'' said Eric Lamoureux, spokesman for the Governor's Office of Emergency Services. ``You're looking at the same consequences.''

Still, precious dollars have been spent on chemical suits and biochemical devices that are sitting unused.

Disaster magnet

Los Angeles has long been plagued by natural disasters - 69 have warranted a declaration of emergency since 1950. Of those, 42 were for floods, 12 for fires and 10 for earthquakes.

Officials fear that flooding could cause widespread damage, particularly in areas like the Pasadena Arroyo.

``That was built by water going through there,'' said Lee Sapaden, spokesman for the county's Office of Emergency Management. ``Hopefully, the warning systems would be there and we'd be able to get folks out.''

Still, earthquakes remain the biggest concern in Southern California. Although far less frequent than floods, a massive earthquake can cause far more damage. And while improved communication would be crucial, so would the state of our highways and hospitals.

The state's Office of Emergency Services predicts a 70 percent chance of a 6.7-magnitude quake - the strength of the 1994 Northridge temblor - striking Los Angeles in the next three decades.

The worst-case scenario could have devastating results: buildings collapsing, roads ripping apart, fires erupting and floods covering parts of the city.

Eight of the 10 major dams in the region - including the Pacoima and Mulholland dams, with a combined capability of 42.9 billion gallons of water - were built in the 1920s or 1930s and may not withstand a major quake.

Gas lines that supply much of the area's energy needs are not retrofitted. Water systems coming in from the north are susceptible to quakes. And most of the major freeways out of the area run along the San Andreas fault and could be destroyed in an earthquake.

There's also the very real possibility of a a terrorist attack and the scenarios for that are endless. There is no early-warning system for a biological terrorist attack, experts say. If weapons-grade anthrax were released, hundreds of thousands of people would need immediate vaccinations. Emergency officials are still trying to figure out how they would distribute those vaccinations.

``I don't think the city has done nearly enough for disasters - man-made or natural,'' said City Councilman Jack Weiss, who has a 10-point plan to prepare for a terrorist attack. ``In the wake of Katrina, I want to take a look at our evacuations, at our ability to transport the elderly and infirm ... at triage possibilities.''

Emergency responders, though, say they are doing the best they can.

``It's like you have a big wheel here of potential unusual occurrences, and we are mindful of all the possibilities,'' said Los Angeles Deputy Police Chief Michel Moore, the Valley Bureau's commanding officer.

Preparing statewide

Across the state - from local sheriff's departments to the Red Cross - emergency responders have been working hard to prepare for the unimaginable.

A statewide system coordinates response and communication between agencies, a state-of-the-art intelligence system predicts likely terrorist targets at any given time, and a team of community members is trained to help first responders in a major catastrophe. Within seconds of an earthquake, officials will have a map showing which areas were hit hardest, telling them where to deploy resources - technology not available just after 1994's Northridge quake.

Hospitals are designated as disaster resource centers. Dozens of schools and senior centers can easily be turned into evacuation centers.

Even with plans in place, experts warn that chaos is the norm. Preparation prevents a disaster from becoming a calamity, like Katrina.

``I'm not going to be naive and tell you if we have an extremely devastating earthquake, there's not going to be short-term communication failures. But we make sure that first responders have redundant radios and satellite phones,'' Lamoureux said. But unlike in New Orleans, he points out, there is already a system that coordinates response among federal, state and local agencies.

Angelenos have to be realistic, explains county Fire Department Capt. Mark Savage, a veteran of disasters.

``Events at this magnitude would overwhelm all first responders,'' he said. ``We don't have enough personnel to handle the number of responses and issues we'd be dealing with. What we can be confident about is that resources would be called in from as far as needed to provide assistance.''

But those resources could take several days to reach all in need. And experts say that the real onus is on the public to be prepared. No matter what the scenario, it's likely many will be stranded without aid for days. Everyone should have a disaster kit with the essentials for survival for three days, officials said.

``If you're prepared for an earthquake, you have food, water, radio, flashlight, first-aid kit and maybe some first-aid training. It might be 72 hours before assistance comes.''

But there are also those unknown factors that politicians and planners just don't anticipate, pointed out Amy Zegart, associate professor of public policy at UCLA.

``We have informal relationships that appear much more developed than in (the) Gulf Coast, but these are still baby steps compared to where we need to be,'' she said.

For instance, most plans for disaster don't include the private sector. Moreover, it's unclear if we have leaders who will become the public face of the disaster much as former NYC Mayor Rudolph Giuliani did after the terrorist attacks.

``The overriding question is, what will we learn from Katrina?'' Lamoureux asked rhetorically. Just as they did with 9-11, he said, ``emergency managers everywhere are going to step back and look at what worked for them, what didn't work for them, and see where we change the way we need to operate. It's too early right now to make that judgment.''

Josh Kleinbaum, [phone]

josh.kleinbaum(at)dailynews.com

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CATASTROPHES

Here are some of the natural disasters and civil disturbances that have shaped Los Angeles:

1815: Flooding forces the relocation of the Pueblo of Los Angeles.

1855: An earthquake seriously damages much of the pueblo.

1857: A major earthquake, centered near Fort Tejon, north of Los Angeles, inflicts heavy damage from Ventura to Los Angeles.

1861: Heavy rainfall causes disastrous flooding in the Los Angeles Basin, killing thousands of cattle and destroying acres of crops.

1867: Floods and fires devastate the Los Angeles area.

1924: Fifty die in an explosion aboard the USS Mississippi in the Port of Los Angeles.

1928: The St. Francis Dam near Saugus collapses, killing more than 400 people in the resulting flood. City Engineer William Mulholland takes responsibility for the disaster and retires in disgrace.

1933: A 6.3-magnitude earthquake hits Long Beach, killing 115 people and causing $45 million in damage.

1938: Thirty-one inches of rain fall during a five-day period in Los Angeles, causing 100 deaths and $65 million in damage.

1961: A major fire in Bel-Air destroys nearly 500 homes.

1963: The Baldwin Hills dam bursts, killing five people.

1965: The Watts riots result in 34 deaths, 1,000 injuries and estimated damage of $40 million.

1969: The heaviest rainfall in 100 years hits Southern California, killing more than 100 people, destroying 10,000 homes and causing $60 million in damage.

1970: Rioting breaks out in East Los Angeles.

1971: The 6.5-magnitude Sylmar Earthquake kills 58 people and causes more than $500 million in damage.

1986: Arson fire at the Los Angeles Public Library destroys or damages some 800,000 books, causing $22 million in damage.

1987: The 5.9-magnitude Whittier Narrows Earthquake kills eight people, injures 200 and causes $358 million in damage.

1988: A fire sweeps through several floors of First Interstate Tower, killing one person, injuring 40 and causing $450 million in damage.

1992: A Simi Valley jury acquits four white LAPD officers accused of using excessive force during the arrest of African-American motorist Rodney King. A riot breaks out near downtown, ultimately resulting in 55 deaths, 2,300 injuries and $785 million in damage.

1993: The Malibu and Laguna Beach fires together burned more than 200,000 acres and damaged or destroyed nearly 1,000 homes.

1993: Wildfires burn 152,000 acres of Los Angeles County. Two die and 720 buildings are damaged with an estimated loss of $950 million.

1994: The 6.7-magnitude Northridge Earthquake causes 57 deaths and as much as $20 billion in damage.

1998: The powerful El Nino weather pattern wreaks havoc, causing landslides and flooding, resulting in $13 million in damage. President Clinton declares 40 California counties disaster areas.

2005: Heavy rain causes a massive landslide in the coastal community of La Conchita, killing 10 and causing damage or destruction to 20 homes.

CAPTION(S):

7 photos, 2 boxes

Photo:

(1 -- color) 9-11

(2 -- color) HURRICANE KATRINA

(3 -- color) NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE

(4) ST. FRANCIS DAM COLLAPSE

(5 -- color) 1993 MALIBU FIRES

(6) 1914 VAN NUYS FLOOD

Photos - 9-11: Chao Soi Cheong/Associated Press; KATRINA: Irwin Thompson/Dallas Morning News; NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE: Hans Gutknecht/Staff Photographer; ST. FRANCIS DAM: Daily News file; MALIBU FIRES: Michael Owen Baker/Staff Photographer; VAN NUYS FLOOD: Daily News file

(7 -- color) Ventura County Search and Rescue team member Tom Farmer carries Cindy Guerrero, 8, through the swollen San Antonio Creek in Oak View, Calif., in January, 1994.

Michael Owen Baker/Staff Photographer

Box:

(1) PREPARING FOR CATASTROPHE

SOURCE: American Red Cross, Daily News research

Daily News

(2) SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CATASTROPHES (see text)