ODDS CAN HANDLE THE TRUTH.

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI Horse Racing 

ARCADIA - The undefeated Smarty Jones' emergence as the likely favorite for the 130th Kentucky Derby on May 1 shows how times have changed for horse-race gamblers.

Smarty Jones is undefeated in six starts and will go to Churchill Downs out of a solidly-rated victory in last Saturday's Arkansas Derby.

But it might have been hard for a colt like this to receive the favorite's honor as recently as a decade ago, before technology gave us interstate wagering and mathematics began to dominate handicapping in the form of widely published speed figures.

If things hadn't changed so much, chances are The Cliff's Edge would have loomed as the probable tote-board favorite.

Back in the relative dark ages, the official Kentucky Derby odds and payoffs were set by the percentages bet in Kentucky, where a public steeped in breeding lore assesses horses by traditional standards of thoroughbred class.

The fans at Churchill Downs might have looked at Smarty Jones' pedigree (he's by Elusive Quality, a turf miler), his off-brand trainer (John Servis), his little-known jockey (Stewart Elliott), his early career at a factory-like track (Philadelphia Park), the string of non-graded-stakes victories that preceded his Arkansas Derby win - plus that funny name that doesn't quite remind anybody of Secretariat - and concluded he's over his head against the Kentucky Derby bluebloods.

And the Churchill fans would have loved The Cliff's Edge, whose pedigree (Gulch), trainer (two-time Derby winner Nick Zito), jockey (Shane Sellers), early successes (two wins at Churchill) and prep race (a sweeping victory in last Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes in Lexington, Ky.) stamp him as Derby material.

In the old days, fans in other states could bet on the Kentucky Derby, but their odds and payoffs were separate from the ones in Louisville, and the numbers could vary wildly according to regional biases, such as in 1986 when California-based Ferdinand paid $16.80 here but $37.40 at Churchill and 1992 when eastern-based Lil E. Tee paid $81.80 here but $35.60 at Churchill.

It wasn't until 1981 that even a few out-of-state bets were factored into the Churchill pot, and it wasn't until 1996 that California's massive handle was lumped into the official calculations. Last year, an all-time-high 90 percent of the $87.8 million in the Derby pari-mutuel pool came from outside Kentucky.

With the regional biases canceling out, the official odds on this year's Derby will be truer than ever.

Back in the dark ages, the average fan handicapping the Derby with the past-performance charts in the Daily Racing Form had no reliable way to measure the meaning of horses' previous race clockings. The fan naturally judged the horses by the prestige of the races they'd won, the star quality of the rivals they'd defeated and the reputations of the people handling them.

Handicappers in Los Angeles, New York or Miami would have sized up Smarty Jones much the same as their Kentucky counterparts did, as a scrappy but outclassed climber.

And they would have turned their affections to The Cliff's Edge, or Bluegrass runner-up Lion Heart, or Saturday's Wood Memorial winner Tapit.

It wasn't until 1992 that the Racing Form began publishing Andrew Beyer's speed figures, which do as good a job as humanly possible of calculating how fast horses ran their races in light of track conditions.

Now, we can judge Smarty Jones without prejudice and see that the 107 and 108 Beyer figures he earned in winning the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby stack up against the career top two of any likely Kentucky Derby opponent - The Cliff's Edge's 111 and 101, Lion Heart's 110 and 104, Tapit's 98 and 98, Read the Footnote's 113 and 105, Imperialism's 104 and 101, Pollard's Vision's 107 and 98, and Santa Anita Derby winner Castledale's 103 and 91.

Being the Kentucky Derby favorite is a dubious honor, seeing that 23 of the past 24 favorites have lost the race. And it's a lukewarm honor this year, when the Derby field will be big and well-matched.

The Daily Racing Form publishes a weekly Derby contenders ranking. It lists Smarty Jones as an 8-1 favorite, followed by Lion Heart, Tapit and The Cliff's Edge each at 10-1.

Meanwhile, Churchill Downs' Web site posts a consensus ranking by a panel of mostly local handicappers. Not surprisingly, it has The Cliff's Edge at No. 1.

--Going Hollywood: Santa Anita ends its 84-day season on Sunday, with the San Juan Capistrano matching 2002 winner Ringaskiddy against eight opponents. The Capistrano isn't what it used to be, but it's always fun to watch. At 1 3/4 miles on the turf course, it's the longest major race in the United States.

Hollywood Park opens its 65-day spring-summer meet Wednesday at 1:20 p.m.

Ringaskiddy, whose Capistrano opponents include recent San Luis Rey winner Meteor Storm, will be ridden for the first time by Victor Espinoza.

With a 14-win lead over Alex Solis going into the final four days, Espinoza had all but wrapped up his first Santa Anita title.

In the trainers' battle, Jeff Mullins led Doug O'Neill by one win going into Thursday's races.

Santa Anita will report some encouragement in its bottom-line numbers: On-site attendance has been up about 2 percent over 2003 levels, and on- site betting has been up fractionally.

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- Kevin Modesti