OBITUARY- Gilbert Jenkins, M.Phil.(Econ), B.Sc.(Chem).F.Inst.Pet. 27/01/36 - 04/12/01.

By Anthony Scanlan

The sudden loss of Gilbert, at home, came as a complete shock to most of his colleagues because he was so actively involved in our industry in so many fields. His statistical expertise coupled with the analytical perception of a petroleum chemist kept him at the forefront of a wide range of advisory and editorial activities both upstream and downstream, in the UK and internationally. While a great part of his career was with BP, more than a quarter of a century, he went on to become an established professional consultant in his field and to fulfil a role in the industry that his colleagues will find hard to replace. A member of the British Institute of Energy Economics and a Fellow of the Institute of Petroleum, he had edited "Energy Exploration and Exploitation" - the "3 E's" - for many years right up to the present.

He joined BP in 1957 after completing his BSc at the University of Wales - where he passed on his room of residence to a freshman, one Charles Windsor, HRH. This was as a petroleum testing analyst at the Sunbury Research Centre, and - always a keen sportsman, living in at the nearby BP Meadhurst Club - where he was shortly to meet his future wife, Sue. So began the family home at Sunningdale, and the arrival of Simon, Sally, Richard and Sara - and the M.Phil. at Surrey University. In 1968 he transferred to BP head office at Moorgate in the newly-formed Central Planning Department. This was a time when external world events were beginning to buffet the industry but when company strategy was still largely an internal matter and reliable or comprehensive global data relating to the externalities of the industry was in its infancy. It was Gilbert's ability to sort the wheat from the chaff that quickly placed him in charge of the data team that inter alia produced the BP Statistical Review, which was later to expand from petroleum and ocean tanker trade to all forms of primary energy. The seeds thus sown were to bear two valuable crops.

The first came in the early Seventies as United States oil imports rose out of control leading to the first world oil crisis in 1973. Those of us who were having to deal with the pending collision could, thanks to the data now available, actually track the slide into crisis, and a lot of the credit is due to the reliability of the data team led by Gilbert. In brief, the USA import explosion forced tanker freight rates to rise and thus create a landed oil price that OPEC could capitalise. Those who saw it coming were a small minority - but links outside BP with others of a like perception, such as those forged with Pierre Shammas in 1971, were to stay with Gilbert for life. The second was to be Gilbert's creation of the Oil Economists Handbook. Drawing on both BP and other reliable sources, this is now in its fifth edition and is an indispensable reference to energy data going back over a century as far as sources permit. The shipping side of the crisis work led also to the World Tanker Databook, (together with Mike Champness of John I Jacobs.) No researcher into the true origins of the crises in the seventies can prevail without these unique sources.

For the past two decades, being an independent consultant enabled Gilbert to broaden his range and scene of activities. His combined skills in world oil market economics and prices, and technical evaluation of oil specifications, gave him a prominent role in publications and advice on emerging post-Soviet markets and the development of oil refining in new areas in the Indian Ocean and Atlantic basin. He also monitored and published frequently on world bunker markets, especially in the aviation sector, and world trends in petrochemical feedstock and gasoline additives.

But two activities above all stand out and continued right up to date. Firstly, the weekly price monitoring of retail motor fuels for the Petroleum Retailers Association which continued right up to December 2001, and which established him as an authority and broadcaster on the problems faced by independents in the sector. Very few in this field could couple this with a mastery of the international oil market trends affecting UK retail, majors and smaller players alike: Gilbert could.

Secondly, his long participation in the annual series of conferences on "Middle East Strategy" hosted by Pierre Shammas of APS in Cyprus. This was conceived at a dinner in the Stafford Hotel in London with Gilbert, Pierre and I in February 1986 and has taken place every year since, bringing people from producer and consumer countries together and leading to long term relationships. Gilbert not only gave a presentation every single year, but often more than one, as well as writing or editing articles in the APS "Energy Business Review" or in "Energy Exploration and Exploitation". Altogether he wrote over 100 articles or papers for APS: his latest was to have been in Iran at the APS/IICIC Conference last September - postponed, after the attacks on USA, until February16. Gilbert's paper will still be given, in Tehran.

While this will be in recognition of Gilbert's contribution over the years, it will also be in recognition of his natural ability to make friends all over the world. Gilbert had no time for 90% of the data coming through his hands - the "rubbish" as he once unforgettably described it to a very unbending senior civil servant during the 1973 crisis - and even less time for politics. But he had all the time in the world for people. He combined social flair with a chemist's skills in taking friends round their local brewery extending, as I recall one time, to Limassol. The day after, we went to North Cyprus and, although Gilbert loathed the whole border crossing experience in Nicosia, once in Kyrenia he sought out the best waterside taverna and was as quick to chat up the Turkish Cypriots as with the Greek Cypriots the day before. It so happened that our Turkish host had been born in Limassol, so Gilbert spent a long while updating him on the hometown he had not seen for 20 years. We ended up with cognacs on the house and photos. On another occasion when both Iran and Iraq sent delegates to the Cyprus conference for the first time since the war between their countries, I was fascinated the first morning at coffee break to see Gilbert chatting happily to both of them, so I sidled into earshot to hear that the magic topic was Manchester United - Gilbert had found both men were Mancunian graduates. Sport, and family, were the great levellers wherever Gilbert went - indeed it is impossible to recall Gilbert without either. From his mother, a Welsh international at Lacrosse who tragically died young, and a father who was the first rugby captain of Pontypridd, through his role as the "Iron Man" at Camberley Heath Golf Club the BP Neville Gass Cup at Sunningdale and Royal Ascot Squash Club - to his children's own golfing prowess and a daughter, Sara, who played tennis for this country, sport and family were virtually inseparable. In Sara's own words:-

"All the children speak of how, despite becoming an expert "oilie" how much time and love Gilbert constantly gave and indeed how much he taught them, in all respects. For Gilbert, life was just that - for living, and time and time again people of all ages and backgrounds warmed to him at first meeting and would respond to his easy smile. It is pertinent that his family, as well as colleagues, can remember great times with Gilbert around his favourite spots near but outside work, walking down Moorgate, going to the City Business and D.T.I. Libraries, drinking Fullers ESB in the Artillery Arms and eating fish and chips on Whitecross Street. He will be remembered by all as a proud, principled, kind and gentle family man. He was dearly loved and will be greatly missed".

Amen to that. Tony Scanlan. (December 31,2001)