Now what? Election results determine new TV scenario.

One thing is clear with last month's Italian elections, we know who lost but not who won. Silvio Berlusconi's shaky right-of-center five-party coalition beat the left. However, it is not yet certain that Berlusconi won a clear mandate to become Prime Minister. Under the current results, no one can form a stable government without the support of the big-losing centrist parties.

Apart from the question of whether Berlusconi will become Prime Minister--nonetheless he's inching his way to it--what do the election results mean for the television industry in Italy? With the exception of Berlusconi's Forza Italia, reform of the current broadcasting system is high on everyone's list of political priorities.

Ironically, a few days before the election the Ministry of Posts awarded a six-year license to 602 local TV stations. The application of 95 others are still pending. The Ministry also granted a few regional and semi-national licenses to networks such as Rete Capri (covering 60 per cent of the country) and Tele Capri (covering the entire South of Italy).

Whatever happens, it is clear that Berlusconi will leverage his own three networks to:

- Become Prime Minister

- Strip RAI of one network

- Get the state banks off his back

For Berlusconi the key ally to please is now the divisive Lega Nord, which will possibly receive one of RAI's TV networks. It is significant to note that, immediately after the election results, Lega Nord supremo boss Umberto Bossi spoke about establishing antitrust measures not to slow Berlusconi down but to set a negotiating posture. Once Bossi is appeased, Berlusconi will be in a position to auction off one of his three webs to the highest bidder, and pass as a democratic hero for doing so Already in the works is the sale of La Standa, Berlusconi's national department store, which has been a cash-cow for the financially strapped Fininvest (Berlusconi's holding group) conglomerate.

Another big loser is RAI, which during the campaign was accused by the right of having a distinct leftist slant A likely victim is RAI chairman Claudio Dematte, always seen as a caretaker anyway. The skids are also ready for RAI president Gianni Locatelli, an easy target after his involvement in a sleazy kickback scandal.

In view of the reported statement that Dematte doesn't care for America, the university professor's departure should not be considered a loss by Hollywood or by Italian-Americans.

The new picture of Italian television is likely to be conditioned by the following emerging trends:

- RAI: two TV networks with reduced ad revenues.

- Fininvest: two networks.

- Improved Fininvest finances.

- Fininvest's leadership in program import rulings.

- Three additional large networks, including the existing Tele-Montecarlo.

- Several mini-webs such as Rete Capri and Tele-Capri.

- A syndication system for some of the 600 licensed TV stations.

- A more forceful presence of STET, Italy's phone company, into cable TV (and PPV).

As far as Berlusconi's pay-TV service -- the financially drained Tele-Piu -- is concerned, Berlusconi will most likely unload it for free (he's still to receive payments for the shares not in his hand).