No party for the GOP? Clinton's mid-term election was bad news for Democrats who lost 500 legislative seats. Some prognosticators think Republicans could suffer that fate this year.With fewer than 70 days to go before the 2006 elections, all signs point to major change possibly on a scale not seen since the last "tidal wave tidal wave, term properly applied to the crest of a tide as it moves around the earth. The wavelike upstream rush of water caused by the incoming tide in some locations is known as a tidal bore. " election in 1994. Analysts then predicted that the Democratic base was too demoralized de·mor·al·ize tr.v. de·mor·al·ized, de·mor·al·iz·ing, de·mor·al·iz·es 1. To undermine the confidence or morale of; dishearten: an inconsistent policy that demoralized the staff. to get out the vote but that Republican voters were energized and eager to make the vote a referendum on Bill Clinton's first two years in office. The prognosticators were right; Democrats got walloped in legislative races, losing more than 500 seats in legislatures. Many political analysts think conditions in 2006 are similar to those in 1994 with Republicans poised to sit this one out and many voters likely to cast their vote based on their opinion of the George W. Bush administration and the direction the country is going. Early signs indicate that swing voters Noun 1. swing voter - a voter who has no allegiance to any political party and whose unpredictable decisions can swing the outcome of an election one way or the other floating voter elector, voter - a citizen who has a legal right to vote are agitated ag·i·tate v. ag·i·tat·ed, ag·i·tat·ing, ag·i·tates v.tr. 1. To cause to move with violence or sudden force. 2. and could unleash their wrath on incumbents making this a volatile year of change. That news has GOP candidates nervous. "The situation for Republicans has for months looked more dire than it did for Democrats in 1994--the last landslide landslide, rapid slipping of a mass of earth or rock from a higher elevation to a lower level under the influence of gravity and water lubrication. More specifically, rockslides are the rapid downhill movement of large masses of rock with little or no hydraulic flow, election," says Tom Mann Tom Mann (15 April 1856 - 13 March 1941) was a noted British trade unionist. Largely self-educated, Mann became a successful organiser and a popular public speaker in the labour movement. , a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Brookings Institution, at Washington, D.C.; chartered 1927 as a consolidation of the Institute for Government Research (est. 1916), the Institute of Economics (est. 1922), and the Robert S. Brookings Graduate School of Economics and Government (est. 1924). . But surprisingly, unlike 1994, the two parties are neck-and-neck as they head into the homestretch home·stretch n. 1. The portion of a racetrack from the last turn to the finish line. 2. Informal The final stages of an undertaking. Noun 1. of the 2006 campaign. Democrats held nearly 60 percent of all state legislative seats in 1994, but emerged clinging only to a thin 52 percent majority. Washington political analyst Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report, agrees with Mann that this election is starting to look like 1994 and is sounding a warning for Republicans as they enter the post-Labor Day campaign season. "Based on national polling data like right direction/wrong track, Congress' job approval, the generic congressional ballot test and the president's job approval ratings, there is no doubt in my mind that there is a very significant tidal wave headed toward the Republican Party this November. It is a wave bigger than 1982 and potentially on par with 1974 and 1994." Republican strategists believe that they can counter the doomsayers by emphasizing core issues like smaller government and lower taxes. "Everybody will tell you that this is going to be a challenging year for Republicans," says Alex Johnson RLCC Remote Launch Control Center (Atlas/Titan) RLCC Redeeming Love Christian Center (Nanuet, NY) RLCC Run-Length Constrained Channel RLCC Right-Lower Corner Cell ). And those early warning signs are lighting a fire under his candidates, he says. "Our committee has set records for fundraising this year. And if our guys work hard and knock on Noun 1. knock on - (rugby) knocking the ball forward while trying to catch it (a foul) rugby, rugby football, rugger - a form of football played with an oval ball rugby, rugby football, rugger - a form of football played with an oval ball doors, we'll be fine." Johnson's counterpart at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC DLCC Disabled Living Centres Council (UK) DLCC Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee DLCC Dog Legislation Council of Canada DLCC Desert Locust Control Committee (UN Food and Agriculture Organization) ), Michael Davies Michael Davies may refer to:
n. 1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome. 2. A believer in philosophical optimism. op about Democratic prospects in the fall. "Our base is very energized, and our candidate filings are way up," he says. "We're definitely going to pick up seats, but will they be in the right places?" WHAT'S AT STAKE The vast majority of legislative seats are in play this year with 83 percent of the 7,382 legislative seats up for grabs. All but four states (Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia) will hold legislative elections in 2006. In Kansas, New Mexico New Mexico, state in the SW United States. At its northwestern corner are the so-called Four Corners, where Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah meet at right angles; New Mexico is also bordered by Oklahoma (NE), Texas (E, S), and Mexico (S). and South Carolina South Carolina, state of the SE United States. It is bordered by North Carolina (N), the Atlantic Ocean (SE), and Georgia (SW). Facts and Figures Area, 31,055 sq mi (80,432 sq km). Pop. (2000) 4,012,012, a 15. only representatives, not senators, are up for election this year. To say that the two parties are "even" in their control of state legislatures doesn't do justice to exactly how tight the margin is between Democrats and Republicans. It seems states are entrenched en·trench also in·trench v. en·trenched, en·trench·ing, en·trench·es v.tr. 1. To provide with a trench, especially for the purpose of fortifying or defending. 2. in a prolonged era of sharply divided control of legislatures and state government in general. Out of the total 7,382 legislative seats in the country, Democrats have a minute 21-seat advantage as of early July. In other words Adv. 1. in other words - otherwise stated; "in other words, we are broke" put differently , they have a negligible, yet symbolic, lead that constitutes a tiny fraction of 1 percent. On the other hand, the GOP controls more legislatures outright and more chambers. The pre-election breakdown of state legislative control is 20 Republican, 19 Democrat and 10 split. (This total adds to only 49 states because Nebraska's senators run in nonpartisan elections for the unicameral unicameral /uni·cam·er·al/ (u?ni-kam´er-al) having only one cavity or compartment. u·ni·cam·er·al adj. Monolocular. unicameral having only one cavity or compartment, e.g. Nebraska Legislature The Nebraska Legislature is the U.S. state of Nebraska's legislative branch. The Legislature meets in the Nebraska State Capitol at Lincoln. It is unique in that it is the only American state legislature that is unicameral and nonpartisan. .) Control of legislative chambers is also essentially tied, with Republicans running the show in 49 and Democrats in 47. As is often the case these days, two legislative bodies are exactly tied--the Montana House and Iowa Senate The Iowa Senate is the upper house of the Iowa General Assembly. There are 50 members of the Senate, representing fifty single-member districts across the state with populations of approximately 59,500. The Senate meets at the Iowa State Capitol in Des Moines. . Some of the most exciting races this fall may be for seats in those tied chambers as the two parties seek to break the deadlock. STATES TO WATCH In addition to the tied chambers in Montana and Iowa, at least a quarter of all legislative chambers are within the margin of a potential party shift. Many more are very close and could switch if one party has a "high tide" election. In 17 state senates, a shift of only three seats would bring a new party to power. In 12 state houses, a shift of five or fewer seats would alter control. Colorado, Delaware, Iowa Delaware is a city in Delaware County, Iowa, United States. The population was 188 at the 2000 census. Geography Delaware is located at (42.473959, -91.342283)GR1. , Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Oregon and Tennessee are major battlegrounds with both chambers hinging on the outcome of just a few key races. Since the 1930s, at least 12 legislative chambers, on average, have changed hands in every election cycle. In 2004, 13 chambers changed with Democrats doing surprisingly well, gaining seven chambers and earning ties in Montana and Iowa. Republicans seized four chambers and had big wins in national contests as well. So what are the states to watch in 2006? Lou Jacobson, deputy editor of the Washington newspaper Roll Call and contributor to the Rothenberg Political Report, says there are "l 0 vulnerable Democratic-held chambers compared to only eight vulnerable Republican-held chambers." He lists 11 chambers as "toss-ups": the Colorado House and Senate, Indiana House, Iowa House and Senate, Maine House and Senate, Minnesota House, Montana House, North Carolina North Carolina, state in the SE United States. It is bordered by the Atlantic Ocean (E), South Carolina and Georgia (S), Tennessee (W), and Virginia (N). Facts and Figures Area, 52,586 sq mi (136,198 sq km). Pop. House and the Oklahoma Senate The Oklahoma Senate is the upper house of the two houses of the Legislature of Oklahoma, the lower house being the Oklahoma House of Representatives. The total number of Senators is set at 48 by the Oklahoma Constitution. . And despite the fact that more Democratic chambers are precarious, Jacobson adds, "Republicans acknowledge that President Bush's problems are being felt at the local level, and they know that if Democratic voters want to send a message this fall, state legislatures could be a key venue for that message." That analysis does not dampen the enthusiasm of RLCC's Johnson who has his eye on several key legislative opportunities. "I like our chances in the Oklahoma Senate," he says. Democrats hold only a two-seat advantage there and all seven of the Oklahoma Senators to term out this year are Democrats. Johnson also thinks Republicans might take control of both chambers in Colorado, Maine and Montana, and says the Alabama House could move closer to Republican control. "Our best chances are in Iowa where we could win both chambers," says DLCC Executive Director Davies. "We could win back the Indiana House, and the Minnesota House is a great opportunity for Democrats." Like Johnson, Davies also includes Colorado and Montana as key states to keep an eye on to watch. - Shak. See also: Eye . THE MID-TERM TREND Republicans running under the banner of George Bush in 2002 broke an historic trend dating back to the early 1940s. In every election in the middle of the presidential term since 1938, the party holding the White House lost seats in state legislatures--sometimes as many as 812 seats (1958). In the first mid-term election under President Clinton in 1994, Democrats lost 514 seats. With the country rallying behind President Bush in 2002 in the first post 9-11 election, Republicans netted 177 legislative seats. It was a remarkable feat to buck a trend that had held for more than 60 years, but to do it twice would be astonishing a·ston·ish tr.v. as·ton·ished, as·ton·ish·ing, as·ton·ish·es To fill with sudden wonder or amazement. See Synonyms at surprise. . Are special elections the canary in the coal mine? Elections to fill vacancies in the past six months may hold a clue for what to expect this November. Between December 2005 and June 1, states held 42 special elections. In a remarkable 31 percent, the opposing party took control. Democrats took 11 previously held Republican seats--almost all in districts that George Bush carried in 2004. Republicans claimed two legislative special election wins in districts previously held by Democrats, although both were in districts that George Bush overwhelmingly carried in 2004. EARLY SURPRISES Stunning primary defeats this past spring ousted a couple of titans in the world of legislative leaders and may auger auger (ô`gər): see drill. auger Tool (or bit) used with a carpenter's brace for drilling holes, usually in wood. It looks like a corkscrew and produces extremely clean holes, almost regardless of how large the bit is. an election of change. Still angry about a legislative pay raise enacted, and then repealed, Pennsylvania GOP voters ousted long-term Senate President Pro Tern Robert Jubelirer Robert C. Jubelirer (born February 9, 1937 in Altoona, Pennsylvania) is a Republican Pennsylvania political leader. He served as a member of the Pennsylvania State Senate from 1975 to 2006, and simultaneously served as the President Pro Tempore of the Pennsylvania State Senate and in his May primary. Jubelirer had been in the legislature since the early '70s and was one of the nation's longest serving leaders. He was president pro tern for more than 19 years and in the Senate leadership for 26 years. Indiana Senate The Indiana Senate comprises, along with the Indiana House of Representatives, the Indiana General Assembly. It is the upper house of the General Assembly. The Indiana State Senate consists of 50 members elected to 4 year terms. President Pro Tern Bob Garton met the same fate to a Republican primary challenger in May. Garton had served in the Indiana Senate for 36 years and as its leader for 26, making him the second-longest serving leader in the country after Tennessee Senate The Tennessee Senate is the upper house of the the Tennessee state legislature, which is known formally as the Tennessee General Assembly. The Tennessee Senate, according to the state constitution of 1870, is composed of 33 members, one-third the size of the Tennessee House leader John Wilder John Wilder is the name of three people, two of whom have been prominent figures in the US State of Tennessee.
Many other stalwarts of legislative leadership will not be returning in January. The list includes Indiana Senate Majority Leader Joe Harrison, who was tied with Garton as the second-longest serving legislative leader in the country. Harrison, like many other legislative leaders, chose not to file for reelection re·e·lect also re-e·lect tr.v. re·e·lect·ed, re·e·lect·ing, re·e·lects To elect again. re . THE BIG ISSUES Many observers point to immigration immigration, entrance of a person (an alien) into a new country for the purpose of establishing permanent residence. Motives for immigration, like those for migration generally, are often economic, although religious or political factors may be very important. as a key issue in many legislative races. However, Mann from Brookings says voters are not going to focus on traditional issues like education and taxes or even immigration--they will make this election a referendum on the status of the country as a whole. When voters enter the booth, he says, they will be asking, 'Is the country in good shape or not in good shape?' There's a belief that things have not gone well in Iraq, with the economy and with energy prices. Mann believes that will lead to a shift for the Democrats of "five points or more, and that will ripple down the ballot." Mann predicts that Democrats will win back a majority of legislatures for the first time since the 2000 election. CNN CNN or Cable News Network Subsidiary company of Turner Broadcasting Systems. It was created by Ted Turner in 1980 to present 24-hour live news broadcasts, using satellites to transmit reports from news bureaus around the world. political analyst Bill Schneider
Bill Schneider is a musician. He has played bass since the band Pinhead Gunpowder formed in 1991. He sings on I Am the Stranger and wrote the lyrics to Backyard Flames. says the key issues are "Iraq, Iraq, Iraq and Iraq ... and maybe some attention to immigration and gas prices. And none of that helps Republicans or George Bush." Schneider believes that there will be "sizable Democratic gains everywhere, including state legislatures." But he does caution that the election is two months away and global events, such as the fate of Osama bin Laden Osama bin Laden: see bin Laden, Osama. , could throw all predictions out the window. TURNOVER AND TERM LIMITS Term limits kick in for the Nebraska Senate this year, making it the 13th state with limits in effect. Just over 40 percent of Nebraska senators are barred from running, putting the state at the top the list for turnover in 2006. Overall, 268 legislators will be termed out this year with Democrats taking a slightly tougher hit, losing 135 compared to 112 Republicans. The rest are nonpartisan or independent. Early indications are that overall legislative turnover in this election could nudge nudge 1 tr.v. nudged, nudg·ing, nudg·es 1. To push against gently, especially in order to gain attention or give a signal. 2. upwards of the normal 20 percent. Half of the states with elections this year have already held primaries, and preelection turnover is ahead of the same point in 2004 by nearly 2 percent. Already 458 incumbent legislators are either retiring or have lost primary races compared to 406 in 2004 in the same states at this point in the election year. SETTING THE TABLE FOR REDISTRICTING redistricting: see legislative apportionment. Party political strategists (especially the ones who like to play three-dimensional chess   ) are fully aware that this election will set the
stage for controlling legislatures in the run-up to the next
redistricting cycle following the 2010 census. Gaining control of
legislatures now may be far easier than trying to take them in the
elections immediately before redrawing congressional lines.
"People in Washington have to realize that you must be building toward redistricting now," says DLCC's Davies. "You can't just 'add water' in the election right before line drawing and hope to have success." In one of its last decisions before departing for the term in June, the U.S. Supreme Court put its stamp of approval on the Republican-led, mid-decade redistricting of Texas congressional lines in 2003. That decision may become relevant in states that shift to one-party control this fall. Some could opt to reopen the congressional mapping process in hopes of improving the chance to gain seats in 2008. The Supreme Court's ruling means that federal law does not prohibit states from revisiting redistricting. And if party control in the U.S. House gets closer, as many predict it will, then mid-decade redistricting, a la Texas, will certainly take place in a handful of states. CNN's Schneider has no doubt that intense pressure from Washington political leaders will be exerted on legislators to redraw To redisplay an image on screen whether text or graphics. The concept is that the first time elements are displayed, they are "drawn," and if something is changed, they are "redrawn." Applications often have a Refresh command that redraws the screen. lines "now that the Supreme Court has given a green light to mid-decade redistricting and if the U.S. House winds up divided by only a few seats." WHY LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS MATTER It comes as no surprise that state legislative elections are overshadowed in the mainstream media by races for Congress and the governors' mansions. Despite the dearth of attention, it matters greatly which party succeeds in legislative elections this November. Legislatures continue to lead the way in American policy innovation in areas such as health care and immigration--areas where the federal government remains sidetracked. Furthermore, state legislators decide how to spend more than half a trillion dollars in public money each year. And to balance state budgets, as they are required to do (unlike their Washington, D.C., counterparts), legislators must make tough decisions about funding critical areas such as education, health care, roads and corrections. The party that prevails in legislative races this fall will dictate policy on what matters most to Americans. And as a bonus, that party will have the upper hand as we head into the next round of elections that will determine who controls 2010 congressional redistricting. [GRAPHIC OMITTED] THEY WON'T BE BACK A number of legislative leaders are moving on to other things in 2007. As of July, 25 leaders have announced their retirements or suffered primary loses. ALASKA Senate President Ben Stevens ARIZONA Senate President Ken Bennett COLORADO Senate Majority Leader Ken Gordon FLORIDA Senate President Tom Lee House Speaker Allan Bense IDAHO House Speaker Bruce Newcomb INDIANA Senate President Pro Tem Bob Garton Senate Majority Leader Joe Harrison KANSAS House Speaker Doug Mays KENTUCKY House Majority Whip Joe Barrows MAINE House Speaker John Richardson MICHIGAN Senate Majority Leader Ken Sikkema Senate Minority Leader Robert Emerson MONTANA Senate President Jon Tester Senate Majority Leader Jon Ellingson Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan Republican Leader Roy Brown NORTH CAROLINA House Speaker Pro Tem Richard Morgan NEBRASKA Speaker of the Legislature Kermit Brashear NEW HAMPSHIRE House Speaker Douglas Scamman NEVADA Assembly Minority Leader Lynn Hettrick Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins OKLAHOMA House Speaker Todd Hiett PENNSYLVANIA Senate President Pro Tempore Bob Jubelirer Majority Leader David Brightbill TENNESSEE House Majority Leader Kim McMillan WEST VIRGINIA House Speaker Bob Kiss DIVIDED GOVERNMENT AND GOVERNORS RACES A recurring theme in state politics is that voters seem to favor divided state government. There is one party control in only 20 states. Republicans control both the legislature and governor in 12 states and Democrats in eight. Thirty-six states stage elections for governor this year so the status quo [Latin, The existing state of things at any given date.] Status quo ante bellum means the state of things before the war. The status quo to be preserved by a preliminary injunction is the last actual, peaceable, uncontested status which preceded the pending controversy. is likely to change. In at least nine states, there will be a new executive after November due to term limits or the current governor leaving. Eight of the nine open seats are GOP governors stepping down giving Democrats hope that this may be the year to catch up. Currently, the political breakdown of governors is 28 Republican and 22 Democrat. Many of the races could be competitive including what appear at this point to be "toss-ups" in Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Massachusetts and Michigan. [ILLUSTRATIONS OMITTED] Tim Storey is NCSL's elections expert.
SEATS UP FOR GRABS
SENATE HOUSE GOVERNOR
SEATS UP SEATS UP UP
Alabama 35 105 R
Alaska 10 40 R
Arizona 30 60 D
Arkansas 17 100 R
California 20 80 R
Colorado 17 65 R
Connecticut 36 151 R
Delaware 11 41
Florida 20 120 R
Georgia 56 180 R
Hawaii 13 51 R
Idaho 35 70 R
Illinois 20 118 D
Indiana 25 100
Iowa 25 100 D
Kansas 125 D
Kentucky 19 100
Louisiana
Maine 35 151 D
Maryland 47 141 R
Massachusetts 40 160 R
Michigan 38 110 D
Minnesota 67 134 R
Mississippi
Missouri 17 163
Montana 25 100
Nebraska 24 R
Nevada 11 42 R
New Hampshire 24 400 D
New Jersey
New Mexico 70 D
New York 62 150 R
North Carolina 50 120
North Dakota 24 48
Ohio 17 99 R
Oklahoma 24 101 D
Oregon 15 60 D
Pennsylvania 25 203 D
Rhode Island 38 75 R
South Carolina 124 R
South Dakota 35 70 R
Tennessee 17 99 D
Texas 16 150 R
Utah 15 75
Vermont 30 150 R
Virginia
Washington 24 98
West Virginia 17 100
Wisconsin 17 99 D
Wyoming 15 60 D
1,158 4,958 22 R, 14 D
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