Nigeria's Political Leadership - The Background.

Many politicians had criticised the long delay in naming the government, saying it might have hurt productivity and continuity in key sectors. Prof. Kabir Mato, head of the political science department at the University of Abuja, on July 26 was quoted as saying some of the old names were reappointed not for the purpose of continuing the Obasanjo era but because of their individual qualifications. Mato said: "Quite a lot of those who have been returned were ministers who did not stay for a very long time. They were appointed by Gen. Obasanjo towards the end of his administration. In most cases, they represent a very brilliant crop of young Nigerians". He said Yar'Adua was a person who liked to do things methodically. That was why he took his time in forming his cabinet.

Yar'Adua's April 21 election was marred by allegations from foreign and local observers of massive fraud, including ballot-stuffing and intimidation of voters. His government faces the challenge of rebuilding a country weakened by official corruption and decaying infrastructure, suffering daily power cuts and frequent fuel shortages despite its energy riches.

The size of the 39-strong cabinet reflects a constitutional requirement that each of the country's 36 states provide at least one minister so as to guarantee fair representation. However, it is hardly an encouraging symbol for a country where bureaucracy is a major obstacle to doing business, and where one of the main stated aims of economic policy is to reduce the size of the federal government.

Yar'Adua hoped to send a positive signal about his reformist intentions. His appointment of Shamsuddeen Usman - a deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria - as finance minister was in that vein. Usman has repeatedly spoken in favour of the free-market reforms launched by the Obasanjo administration four years ago, and of the need to deepen them. The new finance minister is therefore expected to focus on issues including the ongoing fight against corruption; the need to reform land ownership; the importance of boosting the agricultural sector - and so reducing food insecurity; measures to streamline bureaucracy; and reform of the power sector.

However, while Usman and President Yar'Adua continue to stress the need to press ahead with reform, progress may be slower than in recent years. Many of the easier reforms have been completed, and the next wave - such as resolving the electricity crisis, improving insecure property rights, and reforming the weak judicial and education systems - will be harder to implement and will in many cases yield only long-term gains.

Observers have expressed fears that the appointment of Usman as finance minister may result in a clash with Prof. Charles Soludo, the Central Bank governor, in future. This is because Usman, who was Soludo's deputy, now is presiding over the finance ministry.

Progress will continue to be impeded by deeply entrenched vested interests, pressure to adopt more nationalistic policies for the economy, the weak civil service, and confusion caused by overlaps and contradictions between local, state and federal government actions. It may also be hampered by the speed at which a working relationship is developed between the president and the National Assembly - a process complicated by the controversy over the April 21 elections, which some opposition groups are still challenging in the courts, and sensitivities about the anti-corruption campaign.

If the new president allows Nuhu Ribadu, chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, aggressively to pursue politicians who have recently relinquished office, he is likely to find that relations with the National Assembly deteriorate quickly. In this respect, the charging of five former state governors with corruption suggests that there could be difficulties ahead.

The emerging cabinet was the high point of the three weeks of screening of the 40 ministerial nominees by the Senate. At the end of the exercise, only the former Director General of the Budget Office, Dr. Bode Agusto from Lagos State, fell victim of the Senate's sledgehammer. Before the curtain was drawn on the ministerial screening on the floor of the Senate on July 24, some other nominees among them two from Ekiti State, Dayo Adeyeye and Ropo Adesanya, did not even make it to the upper legislative chambers before they were dropped.

However, the shape of the new cabinet has raised a number of questions. It was a major shocker when indications emerged on July 25 that President Yar'Adua would sustain the status quo over the handling of the petroleum ministry. Obasanjo, despite his enormous responsibility as the president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, was also the minister of petroleum for years. He later made his special adviser on energy, Chief Edmund Daukoru, as the minister of state for petroleum.

Nevertheless, with the public outcry which attended the former president's decision to serve as the petroleum minister, many had expected that Yar'Adua would not toe Obasanjo's path. Yar'Adua only out-performed his predecessor by appointing three ministers of state, with himself as the substantive energy minister, and keeping to himself the key post of commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

During the tenure of Obasanjo, suspicions were rife that perhaps the then president refused to shift ground as far as the oversight of the petroleum sector was concerned because he wanted to be a major player in the industry. And Obasanjo has been accused of making special favours for associated business tycoons, such as Aliko Dangote, who tried by later failed to buy 51% stakes in the Port Harcourt and Kaduna refineries.

This has made politicians to raise questions about Yar'Adua's hold on the energy portfolio; but there is the feeling that assigning three junior ministers to assist him in this field and having Lukman on his side as "honourary adviser" are a demonstration of the seriousness with which the new president takes the urgent task of fixing the petroleum sector which has brought shame to the nation as the sixth largest producer of crude oil.

One of the surprises was Yar'Adua's decision not to appoint the representative of Katsina in the cabinet, Dr. Abba Sayyadi Ruma, as minister of education. Ruma had served as the minister of state for education when Mrs. Oby Ezekwesili, who currently serves as the World Bank Vice President for Africa, was the minister of education. Ruma was widely believed to be part of the reform process. Many had thought Yar'Adua re-nominated Ruma as minister in a bid to sustain the educational reforms instituted by Ezekwesili. But this was not to be as the president appointed a fresh hand to oversee this troubled sector.

It is against this backdrop that Igwe Aja-Nwachukwu has stepped in as the minister of education - assisted by the duo of Agada Anthony Jerry and Mrs. Aishatu Jibril Dukku as ministers of state. This development implied that Yar'Adua did not have much faith in the educational reforms of Obasanjo's regime, part of which had drawn the ire of some people.

It is doubtful whether Ojo Maduekwe's appointment as foreign minister sits well with what he has done over the years. Previously he served as secretary of the ruling PDP and minister of transport, with no experience in diplomacy and international relations. But making Maduekwe foreign minister was one of the conditions for Obasanjo to promote Yar'Adua as a presidential candidate, according to the APS source in Abuja.

The appointment of John Odey, former PDP national publicity secretary as the minister of information was not unexpected. Odey had since 2005 held sway as the spokesman of the ruling party. Therefore, his new appointment is a familiar terrain and a continuation of the job he had done in another capacity. In so doing, Yar'Adua equated the management of the government's information machinery with that of the greatest party in sub-Saharan Africa.

Prof. Adenike Grange is expected to display her medical prowess in the ailing health sector. Grange may need to borrow a leaf from the late Prof. Olikoye Ransome Kuti whose health care delivery initiative brought about a major revolution in the heath sector during the military regime of Gen. Babangida.

With the emergence of Dr. Aliyu Modibbo Umar, a native of Gombe State, as the minister of the federal capital territory (FCT), the statement seems clear that this strategic Abuja portfolio has become the exclusive preserve of the Muslim northerners. Since Abuja became the federal capital, no southerner has been appointed as its minister. Questions are being raised as to what are being factored in, in the appointment of the FCT minister. Many ask if the main criterion is geographical location, which places Abuja in the north. When will a southerners hold this key office?

During the first term of Obasanjo, the position was held by Mohammed Abba Gana, a Muslim northerner. Mallam Nasir el-Rufa'i, another Muslim northerner, held the position during the last four years of Obasanjo.

There is a conspicuous absence from the new cabinet: the minister of public works. Many have raised questions about this in view of the deplorable state of Nigerian roads. In the last two years, major roads including the Lagos-Ibadan expressway as well as the Ore-Shagamu road, have been a major sore, culminating in moments of agonising trips for travellers.

There has been speculation that this position may be reserved for Lagos, whose nominee failed to scale through the ministerial screening process at the Senate. Mrs. Grange, who hails from Lagos, was not appointed on any political basis, but rather on the grounds of professionalism. This is more so that the office of the public works minister seems to be political and therefore seemingly being reserved until Lagos will present another nominee who will be a politician. Chief Tony Anenih, former chairman of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, served in that capacity during Obasanjo's first term, while Senator Adeseye Ogunlewe, Dr. Kayode Anibaba and Chief Cornelius Adebayo respectively served in that capacity during the second term.

Nigeria's political class has closed ranks to find a solution to the fallout from the flawed April 21 presidential and parliamentary elections. The political tension intensified after an April 23 announcement that Yar'Adua, the reclusive governor of Nigeria's northern state of Katsina, was the landslide winner of the presidential poll. In that environment, pressure from opposition parties had mounted for the Senate to hold an emergency session to denounce the polls and call for a re-run, a move which would have given the military greater room to challenge the legitimacy of the incoming government.

However, the Senate has since put off any serious debate on the matter. Ken Nnamani, Nigeria's Senate president and like Yar'Adua a member of the ruling PPP, joined in the condemnation of the elections. But he later played a key role in cooling things down and letting Yar'Adua's government proceed with its work programme. At one time, Nnamani stressed that nothing should put Nigeria's democracy in a position where it was at risk of "regressing" even if the polls were "imperfect".

Experienced mediators now feel that Yar'Adua is approaching his opponents tactfully, without upsetting the influential state-level politicians who helped deliver him the vote across the country. A key issue will be how soon Yar'Adua can sever the cord linking him to Obasanjo, his political maker.

It was on Dec. 17, 2006, that Nigeria's ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) selected the reclusive northern governor Yar'Adua as a candidate to the presidency to succeed Olusegun Obasanjo, who was barred by the constitution from seeking a third term. The selection process, in a marathon voting session at the party convention in the capital, Abuja, capped a long tussle over who would be the PDP candidate for the April 2007 presidential election.

It was to be the first time in the country's half-century post-colonial era that one elected government was to hand over power to another. Nigeria has vacillated between military and civilian rule for much of that time, suffering through multiple coups and military dictatorships.

In 1999 Obasanjo, a former general who was the military ruler in the 1970s, was elected president, ushering in the longest uninterrupted period of elected government in this era. The local state and presidential elections in April solidified Nigeria's transition to democracy, although local and international monitors found massive fraud in a voting process which was to make the country a bulwark of stability in a troubled region (see down8NigrWhoAug20-07).

Nigeria is Africa's most populous country, with over 140 million residents, and it is the continent's leading crude oil exporter. A number of projects are to make Nigeria the largest exporter of LNG in the world in the next decade (gmt7NigrGasExpAug13-07).

However, the campaign in late 2006 had got off to a rocky start. Supporters of Obasanjo tried to alter the constitution to allow him to run for a third term, but were defeated by overwhelming opposition, even within the president's own party. Obsasanjo's vice president, Atiku Abubakar, had hoped to win the nomination to succeed him. But the two men had an acrimonious falling out which resulted in Abubakar being denied the right to seek the PDP nomination, with Obasanjo finally elevating Yar'Adua as the candidate to succeed him.

The fractious makeup of Nigeria had complicated things as well. The country has about 250 ethnic groups spread across 36 states, with the population about evenly divided between Christians and Muslims. Each major ethnic group claims it has the right to control the presidency, and because Obasanjo is a Christian Yoruba from the south-west, northern Muslims said it was their turn to control the presidency.

Members of other ethnic groups, particularly those in the oil-rich but deeply impoverished Niger Delta, said their needs had been ignored and that they deserved a chance at the helm. Yar'Adua, a northerner and a Muslim, was little-known and was not a member of the military elite which had ruled Nigeria for much of its history. He had a reputation for cracking down on corruption, an important quality in a country struggling to overcome a reputation for kleptocratic rule. But his main qualification was his closeness to Obasanjo.

Yar'Adua's older brother, the late Shehu Yar'Adua, was Obasanjo's deputy when he was the country's military ruler. Obasanjo was the first military ruler to hand over power voluntarily to civilians in 1979, a fact which endeared him and the elder Yar'Adua to the Nigerian public. But little was known about the nominee Umaru - he seldom travelled outside Katsina, the northern state where he had served as governor for seven years.

In the convention hall on Dec. 17, 2006, Yar'Adua's election was greeted with little enthusiasm and most delegates left the session before he gave his acceptance speech. Voter registration had been hindered by technical problems and widespread violence - like the outbreaks which had marred the two previous presidential elections, in 1999 and 2003.

A non-ideological, cross-cutting, election-winning machine binding Nigeria's diverse elites, the PDP has ruled Nigeria since the end of military dictatorship in 1999, winning two landslide election victories marred by rigging and violence. Yet the PDP is the largest political party in Africa.

On Dec. 17 Yar'Adua, who won the ballot comfortably but received muted applause from delegates, praised Obasanjo for being the "father of democracy and good governance in Nigeria". His running mate was Goodluck Jonathan, a governor of Bayelsa state, from the oil-producing delta zone, but who up until months earlier was only a deputy governor in one of Nigeria's most corrupt states. Yet the stature of Obasanjo helped him become PDP's candidate to the vice-presidency.

Obasanjo had succeeded in forcing through Yar'Adua and Jonathan by intimidating powerful state-level politicians with the threat of anti-corruption probes, or by promising them political inducements. PDP members already upset at party nominations for state-level polls had threatened to engineer a political backlash in many of the 36 states to stop a Yar'Adua presidency. But, eventually, they failed and Obasanjo's nominees succeeded.

Opposition party primaries in December were planned to project another "big man" of Nigerian politics to challenge Yar'Adua, with many activists trying to persuade other heavyweights to line up behind the rival. Thus Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler and prominent northern Muslim politician, who challenged Obasanjo in the 2003 elections, became the opposition's front-runner. But Nnamdi Obasi of the International Crisis Group (ICG), a think-tank, was on Dec. 18 quoted as predicting: "We are looking at an election that will definitely be even more flawed than before - though Nigerians may come to accept it, as it will at least represent a transfer of power".

Despite the end of military rule almost eight years earlier, Nigerian politics was still dominated by back-room dealings, political thuggery and ethno-religious and communal violence. Access to resources, rather than policies based on consistency, was - and still is - often the more likely key to political success.

Yar'Adua, a former chemistry teacher who had a kidney condition, presented himself as Nigeria's best chance of taking forward Obasanjo's attempts at reforming Nigeria's corrupt public institutions. But the tensions among Nigeria's political elite partly brought on by Obasanjo's tough style and Yar'Adua's relatively weak standing among the PDP rank and file forced Yar'Adua to deal with some senior party figures in government who were not renowned for transparent governance. Yar'Adua's supporters, with Obasanjo behind them, enabled the presidential candidate to obtain the political guile to prioritise reform over his political debts.

In early March, Yar'Adua fell ill. At first, the rumour was that the patient was in a coma, rushed off for emergency resuscitation. In the next swirl of speculation the patient was already dead, and preparations were being made for a hometown burial. Later, more concrete information was released. The patient, Yar'Adua, was in a German hospital undergoing tests because of breathing problems. On March 7, he assured the BBC's service in Hausa that his health problems were "nothing serious" and that he planned to return to Nigeria to resume campaigning soon.

Yar'Adua's health troubles - he had a kidney ailment, but the severity and exact nature of his illness had not been made public - were then the latest of several high-profile stumbling blocks as Nigeria headed towards elections which were either to secure its place in the family of modern African democracies or send it spiraling back towards chaos. J. Stephen Morrison, director of the Africa Programme at the Washington Centre for Strategic and International Studies, then said: "This is really the historical test of whether they can move from one elected incumbent to another without having things break down. There is a lot riding on this".

Since its independence from Britain in 1960, Nigeria had seesawed between civilian and military rule, enduring a brutal civil war and decades of misrule which siphoned hundreds of billions of dollars from the country's oil wealth. What was supposed to be a triumphant transition had been marred by a messy battle between Obasanjo and Abubakar. Obasanjo and his allies say Abubakar was unfit to run because of corruption allegations against him. Government officials accused him of looting a public education fund, and his name had surfaced in connection with a bribery scandal involving Representative William Jefferson, a Louisiana Democrat.

Like many leading Nigerian politicians, Abubakar is very wealthy, but the source of his wealth is unclear because he spent most of his career in the military. He has said that his fortune came from investments. He was listed among the politicians deemed too corrupt to stand for office by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, a government agency, but critics of then administration said the commission's list was designed to attack Obasanjo's enemies.

Abubakar then used the country's courts to fight efforts to remove him from the ballot. But in the end he was checkmated by a decision from Nigerian electoral officials to bar anyone on the commission's list from running. The battle is now heading to Nigeria's highest court. Further complicating Nigeria's march towards democracy in April was the unrest in the Niger Delta, where militants seeking more of the country's oil wealth for the impoverished residents of the oil-rich zone had carried out kidnappings and bombings which harmed the oil industry. By April 21, on election day, crude oil exports had been cut by as much as 25%, and the region had become so dangerous and lawless that some contracting companies were leaving.

Yar'Adua had remained the leading candidate. But even before his abrupt departure, the political elite chattered about the possibility that he would be replaced by a better-known candidate, or that the PDP had chosen a weak and ailing candidate so that Obasanjo, who planned to continue to hold a powerful position in the party after his term, could wield power through a loyal proxy. Yar'Adua countered that notion, asserting in interviews that he was his own man and that his health was excellent. He challenged his critics to a squash tournament, saying they should only turn up if they were ready to play a dozen sets of the strenuous game.

Clement Nwankwo, a senior programme manager at the National Democratic Institute, a democracy building organisation helping with election preparations, in March said the confusion had left many Nigerians cynical and frustrated with the process, fearful that their country's fragile democratic experiment will be destroyed in the chaos. He added; "It is a messy situation right now, and it is reinforcing the scepticism that this whole process is not working towards achieving democratic progress in Nigeria. Many people believe that this is just a smoke screen to postpone the election and hold onto power. Everyone is waiting at watching to see what comes next".

Just before the April 21 election, Habiba Yar'Adua, the sister of the man running for president, pointed to a faded portrait of her brother as a boy smiling shyly in his matching hat and tunic. Yar'Adua's face then gazed from election posters nationwide, while opponents said the candidate was too weak to rule Africa's most populous and complicated country. But Habiba said he should not be under-estimated, arguing: "He can do what people don't expect". Obasanjo had been touring the country, raising Yar'Adua's arm at party rallies and introducing his champ. The difference between the two men could not be more stark.

Obasanjo, round and robust, marched about the podium, shouting across the rally ground in pidgin English, overshadowing Yar'Adua's slight frame and soft voice. Obasanjo's political style is bold; he is known for getting results through sheer force of will.

Having interviewed Obasanjo's protege in Abuja just before the election, The Christian Science Monitor said: "Yar'Adua appeared deferential and unassuming as he stressed the importance of discussion and of seeking correct information and able assistants to solve Nigeria's problems". It quoted him as sayinsg: "I would like to see that I have a government that is trusted and credible. And that can be so, if we have proper respect for law and order".

A devout Muslim, Yar'Adua was one of 12 northern governors to have implemented Islamic law in his state. In March he met with Anglican Archbishop Peter Akinola to give assurances that, if he became president, he would protect religious freedom for all of Nigeria's 140+ million people. Yar'Adua's main challenger by April 21 was Buhari, also from Katsina, who had tasted power as a military dictator in the mid-1980s when he earned a reputation for being tough on corruption.

Charles Dokubo, political analyst with the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, earlier in April said Obasanjo's meddling was jeopardising the credibility of the presidential polls before a ballot had been cast, adding: "It seems Obasanjo is trying to dictate who will rule Nigeria. It makes a sham of the elections". Yar'Adua, speaking from his base in Abuja, later told reporters he would be his own man and dismissed the possibility that Obasanjo could continue to have influence during his tenure. He added: "I am amazed and amused any time people say these sort of things. There's no way you can govern a state or a federation or any nation by proxy - it just doesn't work".

After the April 22 election, Yar'Adua's backers said the new president was a shrewd operator unlikely to be pushed around by Obasanjo. They pointed to his track record in Katsina as an example of how he will tackle corruption, which is still stultifying national economic growth.

Yar'Adua was among the few of Nigeria's 36 governors who declared his assets before taking office in Katsina in 1999 and again when he was re-elected in 2003. And, in 2002, he won an award from Nigerian Union of Journalists as Nigeria's most transparent governor. The award was presented by none other than Buhari, his rival.