Nielsen's live plus baffles U.S. execs.

The thing about Nielsen's "live plus" initiative is that no one is really sure what it is and what it means to them. The real word on the street is confusion. But, the bottom line remains: What will it do for me?

"Live plus" is a generic term for "live plus same day," "live plus three" and "live plus seven," the permutations of Nielsen Media Research's "live" ratings, which take DVR playback time into account.

Let's say, in the usual weekly ratings 24 on the Fox TV network achieves a 10.2 household rating from its "live" Monday run. It turns out that some folks--like this author--TiVo the show and then play it back later that week. Recognizing that, Nielsen will add in playback viewing for seven days which in our theoretical case turns the 10.2 rating into a 10.7, as .5 of viewers recorded, and then played back the show. Too bad if they played it back, on the following Tuesday--Fox gets nothing extra for that effort. Likewise, "live plus same day'' allows just one day after and "live plus three" is the currently hyped, obviously compromised incarnation.

Wayne Friedman, West Coast editor of Media Past, feels the broadcast side will settle for "live plus same day," if they can get that much.

But this is where our story begins, not ends. It seems that nobody (read: agencies) was content with (or buying into) the "live plus"--whatever model. Last year, "live plus" virtually stole the show at the Upfronts in New York. Broadcasters in general wanted this or some form of it. Broadcasters, like ABC Sales president Mike Shaw in particular, insisted that "live plus seven" be a part of any sales discussion with their network, at least in the Upfront. But, advertisers didn't like it--at all.

Now advertisers are pushing their own Nielsen initiative, which seems to be the one gaining the most traction for the moment. In their world and at this year's Upfronts, advertisers asked for "commercial minute ratings" to be the currency whereby they buy commercial time. This is the other side of the Nielsen commercial metric, and it simply is what the name suggests, a rating for one specific minute, in this case, when a client's commercial was broadcast. If, for example, there is an Apple Computer spot during, say, Heroes on NBC, and it runs at 9:22 p.m. in the program, the agency buying for Apple can simply buy the spot time based on the rating for the minute of exactly 9:22-9:23, instead of buying the show, or a particular rotation in prime. However, what we've been able to glean from the negotiations is that at this point, the broadcasters are pushing to sell an advertising pod, or spot break rating, so that in reality the Heroes buy would be made on the pod between say 9:22 and 9:24:30--as a pure example.

The new average commercial minute metric is apparently the thing for advertisers, and it has been widely reported that at least two buyers, Starcom and Group M, suggested that they will buy some time based on average commercial minute ratings as opposed to program ratings. In fact, Starcom USA CEO John Muszynski said at a conference that his company is "going to push very aggressively for commercial ratings," and that he was even looking so far as to have his company examine second-by-second ratings, which apparently Nielsen has the ability to offer as well. Rino Scanzoni, chief investment officer of Group M, said he would be satisfied with an average commercial minute rating for the whole show, presumably to buy within the show rather than for a specific break.

Interestingly Mike Shaw, who last year said he would not do Upfront business with any agency that didn't count "live plus seven ratings," is taking a much more agency-friendly approach, saying that the ABC TV network would do business in the commercial minute mode.

But after all is said and done, who really stands to come out on top of all this? As buyers from around the world come to the L.A. Screenings, it's fitting to remember the history of the famous California Gold Rush. The folks who prospered the greatest then were not the miners at all, but rather the suppliers to the miners--the folks who sold Levis and food and pickaxes and maps. In 2007 the miners are the networks and advertisers. The suppliers this time are Nielsen. They win regardless.