New players, old plan.

Byline: The Register-Guard

Confidence is a vital ingredient in an economic recovery - without it, businesses and individuals won't make the investments that create jobs and growth. Neither Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill nor National Economic Council Chairman Larry Lindsey succeeded in creating a climate of confidence, so last Friday, President Bush showed them the door. The shake-up, however, doesn't signal any changes in the Bush administration's economic policies, and consequently is likely to have little effect.

O'Neill was never an enthusiastic cheerleader for the tax cuts that form the core of Bush's economic policy. The president will ask Congress to make last year's tax cuts permanent, and on Monday he nominated John W. Snow to replace O'Neill and take the lead in pushing the White House economic agenda.

Like O'Neill, who was the successful chief of Alcoa aluminum, Snow was head of a major industrial company before coming to Washington, D.C. - CSX, a railroad conglomerate. Unlike O'Neill, Snow is expected to be diplomatic. O'Neill had acquired a reputation for candid but ill-considered remarks about the domestic and international economy, to the consternation of everyone but reporters.

Lindsey, for his part, had become all but invisible over the past two years, in marked contrast to his counterparts on Bush's foreign policy team. His likely replacement will be Stephen Friedman, a former co-chairman of the Goldman Sachs investment firm. That firm was the alma mater of Robert Rubin, who as Treasury secretary became one of the most highly regarded members of the Clinton Cabinet.

The shake-up is evidence of Bush's impatience with the nation's uneven progress toward economic recovery - the announcement of O'Neill's and Lindsey's ouster came on the day that unemployment reached its highest level in eight years. It also shows that the president understands that he risks paying a political price for a weak economy. After two years in the White House and with Republicans taking control of the Senate, it will be harder for the Bush administration to blame his predecessor or congressional Democrats for the condition of the economy.

Yet a new economic team may not be enough to create the confidence the economy needs. It's to be expected that the nation would be wary in a time of jittery markets, declining business investment, rising joblessness and expanding deficits. As Bush presses Congress for permanent, and perhaps expanded, tax cuts, he should ask whether the problem lies more with his policies than with the people he has selected to promote them.