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New labor force projections, spanning 1988 to 2000.

New labor force projections, spanning 1988 to 2000

The growth of the U.S. labor force is expected to slow perceptibly between 1988 and 2000, according to new projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Under the moderate of three alternative projections, the labor force is estimated to grow 1.2 percent annually, compared with the 1976-88 growth rate of 2.0 percent.

The labor force is projected to total 141 million persons in 2000, a net addition of 19 million. In contrast, the work force grew by 25 million between 1976 and 1988. Under the alternative projections, the work force in 2000 varies between a low of 137.5 million and a high of 144.0 million.

Women were only 40 percent of the labor force as recently as 1976; by 2000, they are projected to be 47 percent. The proportion of youths (those 16 to 24 years) dropped from 24 percent of the labor force in 1976 to 19 percent in 1988 and is projected to fall further to 16 percent in 2000. The decline during the 1976-88 period reflected the end of the entry of the baby-boomers, while the projected decrease during the 1988-2000 period reflects fewer births in the 1970's. The proportion of workers in the broad age span, 24 to 54, is projected to increase by 2 percent by the year 2000. The older population, which is growing, is projected to account for the same share of the labor force in 2000 as in 1988. (See table 1.) [Tabular Data Omitted]

The proportion of blacks in the labor force is projected to rise to 12 percent by 2000, compared with 10 percent in 1976 and 11 percent in 1988. The increase stems from population growth. Hispanics are projected to increase their share of the labor force from 7 percent in 1988 to 10 percent by 2000, reflecting increases in population and labor force participation. The proportion of the Asian and other group is expected to rise from 3 percent in 1988 to 4 percent in 2000, also the result of rapid population increase.

There are two major factors that determine labor force growth: changes in population and in labor force participation rates. The BLS projections are based on Bureau of Census population projections and BLS projections of future trends in labor force participation. (2) The process of making projections is not exact; to indicate the possible range of uncertainty, BLS and the Census Bureau prepare alternative projections. (3) This article focuses mainly on the middle or moderate projection. It presents BLS's second look at the 2000 labor force. (4) (See table 2.) [Tabular Data Omitted]

Population

Assumptions. Population projections are determined by the interplay of three assumptions crucial to population change; the future paths of births, of deaths, and of net immigration. The Bureau of the Census' middle projection of population is used in the middle labor force projections. It is based on the following assumptions about these major factors needed to project population change:

Net immigration. The Bureau of Census assumes in its middle scenario that both immigration and emigration will be high. Documented immigration is assumed to total 560,000 annually; emigration totals 160,000 annually. The net immigration (immigration less emigration) reflects an assumption that the Immigration Reform and Control Act, which was not fully implemented until the end of 1988, will reduce the level of undocumented immigration. The number of illegal, or undocumented, aliens is projected to drop from 200,000 in 1988 to 100,000 in 1998. Net immigrants as a whole were projected to total 600,000 in 1988 and to decline to 500,000 by 1998. For certain projections, especially labor force composition by age, this assumption is the most critical.(5)

Fertility. In the long run, the fertility assumptions are the most crucial for a national population projection. These assumptions do not affect the estimated working age population in 2000, because persons 16 and older are already in the population.

Mortality. Mortality changes have little effect upon the working-age population. However, the current population projection is not as optimistic as earlier projections about mortality at the older ages.

Hispanic origin. There is no Hispanic population projection available from the Bureau of the Census that is consistent with this current population projection. BLS has decided to use the high immigration scenario from the Census Bureau's most recent Hispanic population projection.(6) The assumptions for this projection are for Hispanics to have yearly net immigration of 361,000 and fertility that is slightly higher than the overall white population.(7) Future direction and magnitude of immigration, both documented and undocumented, are highly uncertain at this time. As a consequence, projections of the Hispanic population, because they are strongly affected by immigration, are subject to more uncertainty than the overall population.

Population changes, 1988-2000. The overall U.S. population, which increased by 1 percent annually between 1976 and 1988, is projected to grow 0.7 percent to 2000. This slowing reflects an anticipated drop in births as well as the slight decline in net migration. The increase will not occur uniformly across age, race, or Hispanic origin groups. (See table 3.) [Tabular Data Omitted]

As a consequence of the end of the baby boom in 1965, the numbers of youth in the population - and thus in the labor force - will drop. However, the children of the baby-boom generation will enter the labor force during the 1990's, but not before the number of youth continues to drop. The following tabulation gives the year when the numbers of various groups of youth reach their trough and the drop in the population until then:
 Annual rate Annual rate
 of decline, of increase,
 Year of 1988 to from trough
 Age trough trough to 2000
16 1990 -3.9 1.4
16 and 17 1991 -3.6 1.5
16 to 19 1992 -2.7 1.7
18 and 19 1993 -2.3 1.9
20 and 21 1995 -1.4 1.9
16 to 24 1996 -1.2 1.3
18 to 24 1996 -1.5 1.3
20 to 24 1997 -1.5 1.5
22 to 24 1998 -1.8 1.4


The number of 16-year-olds will begin rising soon, following a 4-percent annual drop in numbers between 1988 and 1990. The number ages 22 to 24 will not reach a low for almost a decade. By the turn of the century, the entire youth population will be increasing. Those hiring teenagers should anticipate only a short period before the numbers begin turning up; those hiring college graduates may expect a decline in numbers lasting until the end of the century. Nationwide, the number at the usual age to enter college will start increasing in 1993.

The number of children under 5 is projected to decline steadily between 1988 and 2000. This reflects the aging of the baby boom; these women will not be in the age groups with high birth rates. Children 5 to 13 are projected to increase by 2.5 million between 1988 and 1996, then decline by a half million. This age group is part of the "echo" to the baby boom. Enrollment in elementary and middle schools should remain strong for most of the rest of this century. Persons of high school age (14 to 17 years) are projected to drop by three-quarters of a million by 1990, before rising by 2 million through 2000. This suggests that educational planners should start preparing for an increase in high school students. Those employing teenagers should anticipate increases in the near future.

These changes, taken with the younger labor force ages, suggest that for the rest of the century, the population between ages 5 and 24 will be increasing, although with timing that varies by age group. The observed scarcities of young workers are therefore likely to end before the end of the century.

Increases in the older population

The population over age 55 is projected to grow rapidly. This reflects past immigration as well as the aging of those born between the birth dearth of the early 1930's and the baby boom. The population 85 and over is projected to grow most rapidly. Among the older age groups, only the 65 to 74 age group is projected to increase at a rate less than the overall population, a consequence of the low birth rates of the early 1930's. The following tabulation gives growth rates for the population 55 and over from 1976 to 2000:
 1976-88 1988-2000
55 to 64 0.6 0.8
65 to 74 1.9 .2
75 to 84 2.4 2.0
85 and over 3.7 3.8


The drop between 1976 and 1988 in the share of those ages 55 to 64 is a reflection of the drop in births over the 1924-35 period. This decline is the explanation for the decrease in share of those 65 to 74 in 2000.

The baby-boom group, which was born between 1946 and 1964, is entirely in the prime age (25 to 54) work force in 1989 for the first time. The year 2000 will be the last year the entire baby boom is in this age group. The baby-boom group will steadily decline as a share of the population:
 Level Percent
 Age (thousands) of population
1976 12-30 75,139 34.5
1988 24-42 77,664 31.5
2000 36-54 76,947 28.7


Labor force participation rate changes

BLS projected labor force participation rates - the the second important factor affecting the size of the labor force of the future - for 100 groups by age, sex, and race or Hispanic origin. Recent trends have changed the assumptions of labor force participation rates for older workers, young women, and black men. A review of some of the factors affecting their changing labor force participation rates follows.

The drop in participation by older men, 8 percentage points between 1976 and 1988, is expected virtually to stop, amounting to only 1 point over the next 12 years. That overall change masks important differences among various age groups. The most remarkable change is in participation of men 55 to 64, which fell 7.3 percent over the 1977-88 period, but which is projected to rise by 1.1 percentage points over the 1988-2000 period. The following tabulation shows the changes in labor force participation rates, 1976-88; and the projected changes for older workers:

1976-85 1985-88 1988-2000

Men
 55 to 59 -.5 -.1 0.0
 60 and 61 -.8 -.9 -.1
 62 to 64 -1.9 -.5 -.1
 65 to 69 -2.0 1.9 -.2
 70 to 74 -2.8 .9 -.4
 75 and over -3.1 1.9 -.8
Women 1976-85 1985-88 1988-2000
 55 to 59 .5 1.9 .9
 60 and 61 .3 1.1 .6
 62 to 64 .0 -.1 .2
 65 to 69 -1.1 4.5 .8
 70 to 74 .3 -.4 1.2
 75 and over -2.2 2.9 -.7


The sharp change in projected participation reflects the changes in labor force participation among some groups between 1985 and 1988. For men 65 and older, participation rates increased for each of the white, black, and Asian and other groups. Given the century long history of decreases and only the three years of increases, it does not seem prudent to project rising participation at these ages. [8] At the same time, lower participation decreases or participation rate increases for men ages 65 and over cannot be sustained unless the downward trend in participation moderates for men in the 55 to 64 age group. However, this seems consistent with the 1985-88 patterns for men 55 to 64.

Participation rates for older women, which fell modestly, are projected to increase. The Bureau anticipates that participation will continue to increased at ages below 75. For women 55 to 61, the projections assume that participation will increase in a manner consistent with the 1976-88 period as a whole. Women have less access to pension plans and in general have been working fewer years than men the same age. Their participation is much lower than men of this age. As a consequence, the activity rate for women 62 to 64 is projected to rise between 1988 and 2000.

The growth of the younger women's labor force participation rates began to slow in the early 1980's. The following tabulation indicates the significantly lower growth in young women's labor force activity rates since 1985:
 Growth rate (in percent)
 1976-85 1985-88 1988-2000
20 to 24 1.1 0.4 0.6
25 to 29 2.1 1.0 .9
30 to 34 2.1 1.0 1.8


This pronounced slowing in the growth rate of younger women's labor force participation, if sustained as BLS projects, implies a greater proportion of older women in the labor force. [9] The growth in labor force activity rates was cut by more than half over the most recent period. The lower growth rate may indicate the approach of women to their maximum participation rates for these groups. The changed trends are for women of childbearing ages - should participation not rise as sharply as in the late 1970's, the demand for child care could be muted. However, the slower growth in participation of women at younger ages over the 1985-88 period may reflect the difficulties in child care arrangements experienced by young parents. BLS is projecting that participation growth will be significantly greater than in the past few years only for women 30 to 34 - the projected growth is closer to the 1976-85 rate of change.

Recently, the labor force participation rates of black men, 25 to 54, have begun to rise, or at least to decrease much more slowly. For this projection, their participation rate is expected to rise. The following tabulation gives the historical and projected percentage point change in labor force participation for prime working age black men:
 1976-85 1985-88 1988-2000
25 to 34 -2.1 0.5 0.3
35 to 44 -.1 -1.6 .8
45 to 54 .6 .5 .1


White men are experiencing rising participation at the younger ages and slower decline in participation for the older years (65 and older - three groups). The decrease in participation for the pre-retirement years - 55 to 64 - is projected to continue.

Labor force changes

The overall labor force, which was 83 million in 1970, is projected to be 70 percent larger in 2000 - the effect of increased population and increased labor force participation. But growth has been decelerating. Between 1970 and 1980, the labor force grew by 2.6 percent annually and between 1980 and 1988, by 1.6 percent. The rate of increase is projected to slow 1.2 percent over the 1988 - 2000 period. [10] Here is the labor force by major age groups (in thousands):
 1970 1980 1988 2000
Total 82,771 106,940 121,669 41,134
 16 to 24 17,846 25,300 22,535 22,456
 25 to 54 50,421 66,600 84,041 101,267
 55 and over 14,505 15,039 15,094 17,411
Growth rates: 1970-80 1980-80 1988-2000
 Total 2.6 1.6 1.2
 16 to 24 3.6 -1.4 .0
 25 to 54 2.8 3.0 1.6
 55 and over .4 .0 1.2


This tabulation indicates that all groups contributed to labor force growth in the 1970's. The baby-boom generation accounted for much of the growth. The baby-boomers entered the prime working years during the 1980's and will be flowing through the prime working age bracket during the 1990's. By 2000, they will be poised to leave the prime working years.

Sex and age

The number of women in the labor force is projected to grow by 12.0 million from 1988, totaling 67 million in 2000. This represents an annual rate of growth of 1.7 percent, compared with the 2.9 percent of the 1976-88 period, when the young women of the baby boom were entering the labor force. With the growth shown in these projections, women would account for 47 percent of the labor force in 2000, up from 41 percent in 1976 and 45 percent in 1988.

Men are projected to remain a majority of the labor force, even though the number is not changing as dynamically as that of women. The male labor force is projected to grow by 7.4 million, or 11 percent, over the 1988-2000 period. (This compares with 22 percent for women during the same period.) Different components of the male labor force are growing at different rates; the younger male labor force is projected to decrease in size between 1988 and 2000, but actually to increase between 1995 and 2000.

Age composition. There are projected to be more than 100 million prime age (those ages 25 to 54) workers in 2000. (See table 4.) The number of young workers is projected to decline, continuing a trend which began in 1979. Older workers should increase their numbers, as those born in the late 1930's and early 1940's reach ages over 55. [Tabular Data Omitted]

The youth labor force (those 16 to 24) is projected to be the same size in 2000 as in 1988. As would be expected from the discussion of the changing size of the youth population, this masks a variety of changes for various age groups. The teenage labor force is projected to drop until 1992, then rise over the rest of the decade. By 1995, the teenage labor force would still be smaller than in 1988, about 200,000 less. It would climb by a million between 1995 and 2000, with a net increase of 800,000 for the entire 1988-2000 period. The following tabulation gives the changes in the youth labor force projected 1988 to 2000 (in thousands):

1988-95 1995-2000 1988-2000

Youth, ages
 16-24 -1,379 1,299 -80
 16 to 19 -216 1,006 790
 20 to 21 -354 629 275
 22 to 24 -809 -336 -1,145


The 22-to-24 labor force is projected to decline until 1998, with a modest recovery in 1999 and 2000. This labor force would drop by more than a million through 2000. The number of younger women (16 to 24) is projected to increase by a third of a million, as their growing participation offsets their decline in population.

Prime age workers would account for 72 percent of the labor force in 2000, up from 69 percent in 1988. This reflects the underlying demographic changes - the baby-boom generation will still be in the prime working ages - but between 1995 and 2000, the echo of the baby boom (their children) will begin entering the labor force. The prime age work force (25 to 54) grew by 3 percent annually between 1976 and 1988; this growth is projected to slow to a 1.6-percent rate between 1988 and 2000.

Over the 1988-2000 period, the fastest growing group among men is expected to be those ages 45 to 54, the consequence of the aging of the baby-boom generation. The participation of this group is less than that of younger men. Because baby-boom men would still be in their prime working years in 2000, the prime age male labor force is projected to be a greater proportion of the labor force than in 1988. The labor force of men ages 45 to 54 is projected to grow 5.8 million.

The youngest segment within the prime working age group, those 25 to 34, will contract in size between 1988 and 2000, after reaching a high of 35.9 million in 1990. This change represents the effects of the "baby bust" on the labor force. This group would not increase until after 2000.

The group with by far the largest numerical growth is women in the prime working years (ages 25 to 54). This group is projected to increase by 10 million, compared with the 7 million increase in prime age men. Prime age women not only would account for the largest labor force increase but would also have the highest rate of growth.(11) Many will be 35 to 54, reflecting the presence of the baby-boom generation.

The change in the number of the older male labor force also represents the interplay of population and participation. The group 55 to 64, whose population is projected to decrease over the 1988-95 period but increase during the 1995-2000 period, has a higher participation rate than men 65 and older. Participation rates of men ages 55 to 64 are projected to drop more slowly than rates for men over age 65. The interplay of these groups combines so that the entire older male labor force is projected to grow over the 1988-2000 period by 1 million.

Women 55 and over will also increase at a rate higher than the overall labor force. These participants are expected to increase by more than a million over the next 12 years. This group has the lowest labor force participation of the six major age-sex groups.(12) Participation is projected to increase faster than the rate for the overall labor force, but most of that growth will be concentrated in the 55 to 64 group. Because most of the women in this age group are over 65, overall participation for the group is not likely to attain high levels.

Race and Hispanic origin

Blacks. There are projected to be 16.5 million blacks in the labor force in 2000, up 3.2 million from 1988. This represents a higher growth rate, 1.9 percent, than is projected for the overall labor force and is the result of faster population growth among blacks. By 2000, blacks are expected to make up 12 percent of the labor force, up 1 percentage point from 1988.

Asians and others. The Asian and other work force is projected to be 5.6 million in 2000, an increase of 2 million from 1988. Their growth rate is projected to be 3.6 percent annually, higher than either the black or white rate of increase, but below that of Hispanics. Like Hispanics, their growth rate is impacted by immigration as well as higher past fertility. Their share of the labor force would increase by 1 percentage point to 4 percent. The participation rate of Asians and others is projected to remain virtually the same, comparable to the change over the 1976-88 period.

Hispanics. There are expected to be 14.3 million Hispanics in the labor force in 2000, up 5.3 million from 1988, according to the BLS projections. This represents a much higher growth rate, 4.0 percent, than projected for the overall labor force. Hispanics may be of any race; their population and labor force numbers are also included in those for whites, blacks, and Asians and others. Hispanic labor force participation is projected to grow 0.3 percent annually, similar to the overall labor force increase of 0.4 percent annually. By 2000, Hispanics are projected to constitute 10 percent of the labor force, up 3 percentage points from 1988. Workers of Hispanic origin are the youngest group in the labor force (as measured by the median age of 35.2) and are projected to remain by far the youngest group.(13)

Whites. As in the past, most of the labor force is projected to be white. In the year 2000, there would be 119 million whites (including Hispanics) in the labor force, up 14 percent from 1988. However, their share of the labor force is projected to drop from 86 to 84 percent. (If Hispanics are excluded, more than 95 percent of whom also are counted as white, the shares for whites would be 79 percent in 1988 and 74 percent in 2000.) White participation is expected to grow at the same rate as the overall labor force, but slower than participation of blacks, Asians and others, and Hispanics, reflecting slower rates of population growth and older age structure.

Alternative demographic projections

The actual 2000 world of work will certainly be different from that in 1988 in ways that we cannot anticipate. To give an idea of at least some of the uncertainty, two alternative projections of the labor force were prepared. (See table 5) One assumes slower labor force participation rate changes applied to the middle population series of the Bureau of the Census and the other assumes higher immigration and uses higher participation rate changes. [Tabular Data Omitted]

The assumptions used in the Census Bureau's high immigration series would seem to imply higher labor force participation rates than the middle scenario: Under the high scenario, the labor force increases to 147 million in 2000 - 6 million greater than the middle scenario. With the higher level of immigration (160 percent greater), the percent change of the labor force is 21 percent from 1988 to 2000. Participation is projected to grow at 0.6 percent annually, a rate one-third higher than in the moderate scenario.(14)

For the higher scenario, it was assumed that immigration of Hispanics would be the same proportion of the civilian noninstitutional population in the previous high immigration projection. However, the Hispanic labor force would grow more rapidly under the high scenario, but the Hispanic labor force would have the same share under both scenarios. Under the low participation scenario, Hispanics would account for 10.4 percent of the labor force and would grow by 3.8 percent yearly to 2000, compared with the 4.0-percent annual gain shown in the middle scenario.

Under the low alternative, the overall 2000 labor force would be 138 million, an expansion of 13 percent over the 1988 level. This slower growth, 1.0 percent annually, is a consequence of the participation rate growing slowly or dropping more rapidly. In the middle scenario, overall participation is projected to increase 0.4 percent annually. Under the low scenario, it is projected to grow at only 0.2 percent. Also under the low alternative, labor force participation among women is projected to rise more slowly. This is consistent with the view that the rapid increases of the 1970's account for most of the rise in women's labor force participation.

Entrants

As noted, the labor force is projected to grow by a net of 19 million persons. This increment masks a more dynamic underlying process, the movement of workers into and out of the labor force. BLS projects that 43 million persons will join the labor force between 1988 and 2000. There should be slightly more women than men, reflecting the difference in proportion of women and men in the 16 to 34 age groups. Almost two-thirds of the entrants are expected to be white, non-Hispanics. Hispanic origin entrants are projected to account for 15 percent of entrants, with more Hispanic men than women projected to join the labor force. Blacks would provide 13 percent of the entrants to the labor force, with black women providing slightly more entrants. Seventy percent of those projected to be working in 2000 are now in the labor force.

The picture of workers leaving the labor force is markedly different. By 2000, 23 million persons now in the labor force are projected to leave. Men are projected to leave in greater numbers than women, by more than 3 million. More than 20 million whites are expected to leave the labor force. Whites predominate because they are on average older than the overall labor force and are more likely to have pension benefits. (See table 6.) More than 2 million blacks are expected to leave the labor force, the second largest group. Hispanics are projected to constitute a much smaller proportion of leavers, because, like blacks, they are much younger than whites. On balance, few Asians and others are projected to leave. (See table 7.) [Tabular Data Omitted]

As noted, the labor force is projected to grow by 19 million. The difference between the entrants and leavers, which is also the difference between the 2000 labor force and the 1988 labor force, must be interpreted with caution. Thus, white, non-Hispanic men make up one-third of the entrants but almost one-half the leavers. As a consequence, they account for only 12 percent of the net change in the labor force from 1988 to 2000. Reflecting the numbers of youth in the labor force, more entrants are expected in the latter part of the 1988-2000 period. The number of leavers is also likely to be concentrated toward the end of the century.

A definitive estimate of entrants would be a complex undertaking. Rough projections were developed by analyzing the estimated labor force changes between 1988 and 2000 by age, sex, and race and Hispanic origin. For this analysis, Hispanics were separated from the racial group in which they reported in the Current Population Survey.

Measures of age

The median age of the labor force in the post-World War II era peaked in 1962, at 40.6 years. With the entry of the baby-boom generation into the labor force, the median age dropped, reaching a low in 1980 of 34.3 years. By 1988, the median age had risen to 35.9 years, and is projected to reach 39.3 years in 2000. Even though the age of the population is increasing rapidly, unless older workers remain in the labor force in greater numbers, the 1962 median is not likely to be attained again. Table 6 shows median ages of the labor force by race and Hispanic origin, for selected historical years and for projected years.

A rising median does not necessarily imply that the labor force will be composed of an increasing share of older workers. If we consider a labor force to be "older" if the proportion over age 55 increases, then between 1976 and 1988, the labor force did not become older, because the over age 55 share of the labor force fell 2.5 percentage points. Between 1988 and 2000, the labor force will not become older, as the proportion age 55 and over remains constant. If we consider a labor force to be "younger" if the percent under age 25 increases, then the 1976 labor force was considerably younger than the 1988 labor force, with a proportion almost 6 percentage points lower. The 2000 population will not be younger, as the youth share would drop by 2.6 percentage points. The labor force is becoming more concentrated in the 25- to 54-year group; as these percentages indicate:
 1976 1988 2000
Youth 24.3 18.5 15.9
Prime 60.8 69.1 71.8
Older 14.9 12.4 12.3


Dependency ratio. With the members of the baby-boom generation in their prime working years and with the small number of births projected between 1988 and 2000, more people are expected to be in the labor force than not over the entire period, as indicated by the economic dependency ratio:
 Table : Economic dependency
 ratio
 1976 1988 1994 2000
Total 121.8 98.9 93.1 87.3
Under age 16 58.7 45.6 44.1 40.6
 16 to 64 42.4 31.4 26.7 24.8
 65 and over 20.7 21.9 22.3 21.9


This ratio is the number of those in the total population (including Armed Force overseas) who are not in the total labor force per 100 of those in the total labor force. The ratio declined steadily over the 1976-88 period as the baby-boomers entered the labor force, falling below 100 in 1987. The largest component of the dependency ratio is made up of persons under 16. However, this component has been dropping and is expected to continue to do so throughout the entire projection period. With the rising participation of women, the component of the dependency ratio attributed to the 16-to-64 age group has also declined steadily. The dependency ratio for all persons over 65 has been rising over the entire historical period, a trend projected to continue. The slight rise between 1988 and 1994 reflects the aging of the smaller birth cohort of the 1930's. Footnotes

ACKNOWLEDGMENT: Alan Eck, an economist in the Office of Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics, provided the calculations of the entrants and leavers. (1) The Asian and other race group consists of American Indians. Native Alaskans, Asians, and Pacific Islanders. (2) Projections of the Population of the United States, 1987 to 2080, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1018 (Washington, Bureau of the Census, 1989). (3) For the most recent evaluation of BLS labor force projections, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "An evaluation of labor force projections to 1985," Monthly Labor Review, November 1988. pp. 7-17. (4) These projections replace those described by Howard N Fullerton, Jr., in "Labor force projections: 1986 to 2000", Monthly Labor Review, September 1987, pp. 19-39; and "The 1995 labor force: BLS' latest projection," Monthly Labor Review, November 1985, p. 17-26. (5) See John F. Long, The Relative Effects of Fertility, Mortality and Immigration on Projected Population Age Structure (Washington, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989), presented at the 1989 meeting of the Population Association of America. (6) Gregory Spencer, Projections of the Hispanic Population, 1983 to 2080, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 995 (Washington, Bureau of the Census, 1986). (7) The assumed net Hispanic origin immigration includes 212,000 undocumented immigrants yearly, consistent with the initial years, but not with the latter years of the current overall projection. This inconsistency makes analysis of the effects of Hispanic immigration problematic. (8) For recent studies of the changes in participation by older men, see Robert L. Clark, "The Future of Work and Retirement," Research on Aging, June 1988, pp. 169-93; and John R. Moen, "Past and Current Trends in Retirement: American Men from 1960 to 1980," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, July-August 1988, pp. 16-27. Recent BLS reports on the status of older workers have included Diane E. Herz and Philip L. Rones, "Institutional barriers to employment of older workers," Monthly Labor Review, April 1989, pp. 14-21; and Ronald E. Kutscher and Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "The Aging Labor Force," in The Aging of the American Work Force: Problems, Programs, Policies, edited by Irving Bluestone, Rhonda Montgomery and John Owen (Detroit, Wayne State University Press, forthcoming.) For recent Department of Labor task force reports, see Older Worker Task Force: Key Policy Issues for the Future; and Labor Market Problems of Older Workers (Washington, U.S. Department of Labor, Older Worker Task Force, 1989). (9) The title of Lynn Y. Weiner's book states the case: From Working Girl to Working Mother: The Female Labor Force in the United States, 1820 to 1980 (Chapel Hill. University of North Carolina Press, 1985); cited in J. Gregory Robinson, A Cohort Analysis of Trends in the Labor Force Participation of Men and Women in the United States, 1890 to 1985 (Philadelphia, University of Pennsylvania, 1988.) (10) For further insight into the changing labor force, see Ronald E. Kutscher, "Projections summary and emerging issues," pp. 66-74, this issue. (11) For a recent BLS study of women and the labor force, see Susan E. Shank, "Women and the labor market: the link grows stronger," Monthly Labor Review, March 1988, pp. 3-8. (12) For a recent BLS review, see Diane E. Herz, "Employment characteristics of older women, 1987," Monthly Labor Review, September 1988, pp. 3-12. (13) See also Peter Cattan, "The growing presence of Hispanics in the U.S. work force," Monthly Labor Review, August 1988, pp. 9-14; and Barry R. Chiswick, "Hispanic men: divergent paths in the U.S. labor market," Monthly Labor Review, November 1988, pp. 32-34. (14) For the most recent Department of Labor report on the impact of the immigation on the work force and the economy, see The Effects of Immigration on the U.S. Economy and Labor Market, Report 1 (Washington, Bureau of International Labor Affairs, Division of Immigration Policy and Research, 1989).
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Author:Fullerton, Howard N. Jr.
Publication:Monthly Labor Review
Date:Nov 1, 1989
Words:5983
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