New Iran Nuclear Crisis Looms.

The indications from Tehran are that there will soon be a crisis over Iran's nuclear programme. This time things are more serious. Relations between Tehran and the West look distinctly overcast in the wake of Ahmadi-Nejad's election victory.

A spokesman for Ahmadi-Nejad on July 6 said Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rowhani, will remain in place at least until the new leader takes the presidency in the first week of August. The state news agency IRNA had said Rowhani, a protege of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who lost the June 24 elections, had tendered his resignation. Rowhani's departure would raise the prospect of Ahmadi-Nejad putting together a tougher team for talks with the Europeans over Iran's nuclear programme. Rowhani's spokesman on July 6 said his boss and Ahmadi-Nejad had met on that day and discussed the nuclear issue.

During his campaign, Ahmadi-Nejad criticised Iran's nuclear negotiators for making concessions to the Europeans - particularly a temporary freeze in the programme. Since his June 24 victory, he has said Iran will continue the negotiations despite the deadlock.

IRNA, which reflects stances of the theocracy, reported that Rowhani, head of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), had submitted his resignation to departing President Mohammad Khatami. But SNSC's spokesman, Ali Agha-Mohammadi, said IRNA's report was "false", adding: "Rowhani will remain in his position until President...Khatami's term ends. After that it is up to Ahmadi-Nejad, who has not announced any stance on Rowhani".

Formally Rowhani, 57, is identified as a representative in the SNSC of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. But in reality Rowhani is close to Rafsanjani. The SNSC is charged with forming security and defence policies. Rowhani had openly expressed support for Ahmadi-Nejad's more moderate opponent, Rafsanjani, during the elections campaign.

The Guardian on July 7 quoted an analyst as saying: "Rowhani's resignation wouldn't help anyone. If he was resigning in protest at the pressure he is under, it would mean somebody with a tougher position would take his place. But if there is anyone tougher than Rowhani, it means there is no future for the talks". On July 6, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said Iran must be prevented from resuming uranium enrichment. Ms Rice said: "The world has to be assured that Iran cannot have this capacity".

Iranian leaders say Tehran will inevitably resume the key parts of its nuclear plan which were suspended - particularly the enrichment of uranium. Enrichment can produce the material necessary either for nuclear weapons or for a nuclear power plant. The programme was suspended last year as a gesture to the Europeans and under the threat that Iran would be referred to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions. But under Rowhani and Khatami, Iran has shown reluctance to abruptly resume uranium enrichment, a step which would probably derail the European talks.

A key test of Ahmadi-Nejad's administration will be how long it continues with that restraint. Ahead of his election victory, the Foreign Ministry underlined that no matter who was president, enrichment would eventually resume. The nuclear programme is ultimately in the hands of the theocracy, headed by Khamenei. But reformers under Khatami - and Rafsanjani, a veteran insider of the theocracy who has in the past favoured improved relations with Europe and the US - could exert an influence. Ahmadi-Nejad, in contrast, is loyal to the hardcore theocrats who threw their support behind him in the campaign.

Diplomats in Vienna were on July 7 quoted as saying Iran had asked the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to let it temporarily break UN seals from a component at the uranium conversion facility (UCF) in Isfahan to conduct a test on the component. Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation deputy head Mohammad Saeedi said the move had nothing to do with the nuclear suspension Iran promised France, Britain and Germany. Saeedi said Tehran requested to remove the seal in the presence of IAEA inspectors, adding: "We want to test equipment there to check whether those are functional. It does not mean lifting the suspension".

EU diplomats say testing of machinery used in the enrichment and conversion process should be frozen under a suspension agreement signed in Paris in November 2004. The US and EU fear Iran is using its programme as a front to develop atomic weapons and have called on Tehran to stop sensitive nuclear work. Tehran says its programme is peaceful and refuses to give up its sovereign right to a full atomic programme.