New Cold War On Northern Front Puts The Arctic's Resources In Play

It may be hard to believe, with brush fires raging in Los Angeles and record heat cutting a red swath across U.S. weather maps, but in the world of geopolitics, summer 2007 is experiencing a cold snap, as a flurry of international actors stake claim to the lands of the Arctic Circle -- or more precisely, the mineral wealth underneath.

This new Arctic scramble presents a challenge to foreign policy wonks and presidential wannabes, whose plates are over-full these days with international issues ranging from the scheming of al-Qaida and its franchisees; the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; Iran and North Korea and their nuclear quests; and the long-fused concern over China's inexorable military buildup.

Ready or not, however, along comes Russia and its "resource war" strategy to reclaim through the energy pipelines its lost lands of influence in Eastern Europe. The new front in that Resource War? The Arctic north.

Who are the players? Take a look at the map above, with the North Pole at the center of the bulls-eye, and the contenders become clear: Canada, the U.S., Denmark (via its Greenland territory), Norway and Russia -- the five nations with territory north of the Arctic Circle.

What's at stake? An estimated 10 billion metric tons of oil, not to mention gold, zinc and other minerals, all of which have been ice-locked, but which will become increasingly accessible as drilling technologies improve and the polar ice cap retreats.

Environmentalists and climate-change gurus will be disheartened to note that the polar ice melt has touched off not calls for a new Kyoto confab, but rather a geopolitical iditarod for untapped undersea sources of fossil fuel.

While this month has seen new movement among the Arctic contenders, the rush northward has been building for some time.

Denmark moved first in 2004, like an attacking player in a game of Risk, extending a bid based on its geological claim linking the North Pole and Greenland -- which has been owned by Denmark since 1814 -- via the 1,000-mile underwater mountain range, the Lomonosov Ridge.

Russia got in the game in early August when, in scenes reminiscent of days of Soviet-controlled media, Russian TV celebrated a minisub expedition that planted a Russian flag -- thoughtfully constructed of rustproof titanium -- into the sea muck beneath the North Pole.

Like Denmark, Russia bases its Arctic claim on the Lomonosov Ridge (which has the advantage of being named after a Russian). To strengthen its case, a Russian exploration team will make an Arctic expedition later this year.

This sparked Canada's interest, which had until then expressed its Arctic sovereignty with a droll little smile and a tilt of its head, telling its Arctic competitors they had nothing to dread, assigning a Canadian Postal Code to the North Pole -- H0H 0H0 -- thereby neatly co-opting both Santa and the 10 billion metric tons of crude beneath his workshops.

Days after the Russian sub gambit, Canadian Prime Minister Steven Harper headed for the north country (a trip his foreign ministry pointed out had been in the planning stages for months), stopping at the aptly named outpost town of Resolute, as part of his campaign to assert Canadian sovereignty over the region.

While there, Harper announced plans to build two new Arctic military bases and a deep-sea port at the northern end of Baffin Island. Gone are the days when Canada joked about exercising its sovereignty over Hans Island -- a barren rock also claimed by Denmark to enlarge its territorial waters -- by erecting a Tim Horton's drive-through donut stand.

Not to be outdone, Denmark sent its own exploratory team on an Arctic foray just last week. Oddly enough, the Danish expedition pushed off from the Norwegian coast, and will benefit as it heads north from the help of a Russian icebreaking nuclear sub. Is some sort of incipient Arctic alliance in the works?

Norway, for its part, has been comparatively quiet on the Arctic issue, but its actions speak while its spokesmen stay silent. Norwegian oil companies continue to explore northern reaches of the Barents Sea, positioning Norway to advance as the polar ice cap retreats.

Where is the U.S. in all of this? Our ambassador to Canada contested Canadian claims over Arctic territory, stating in response to Harper's northern tour that it did not "change the U.S. position" -- without quite explaining what that position is.

Meanwhile, over at the State Department Web site, a page on "U.S. Arctic policy" is long on diplo-speak emphasizing cooperation and coordination, and decidedly light on the subject of sovereignty. It also has a cute picture of a polar bear.

Until now, the war for the Arctic has been waged via scientific papers at geological conferences, spiced with the occasional minisub mission and Santa diplomacy. Recent events show the Arctic action to be heating up.

Will our next president find him or herself drawing a "line in the snow" in Operation Arctic Storm? In the sweltering summer of 2007, that's something for geopoliticos to ponder.

McGroarty, a former White House speechwriter, is president of Carmot Strategic Group, an international business advisory based in Washington, D.C.