Natural Disasters Predicted To Continue, Even Get Worse.

Changes in climate are increasing the incidence of natural disasters, according to a recent study by the World Wide Fund for Nature. The increase of greenhouse gases is expected to boost the intensity of rainstorms, river floods, droughts and other extreme weather events. The report cites a steady increase in the average temperature of the Earth's surface: 1998 was the wannest year ever measured globally in history, and the 10-warmest years ever measured worldwide all occurred after 1981. The top six temperatures occurred after 1990.

"The intensity of extreme weather events will affect many parts of the world differently," said Pier Vellinga, professor of environmental studies and leading climatologist at the Vrije University in Amsterdam. "Climate change brings about a global redistribution of the costs and benefits of the weather. We should have no doubt that costs will be much greater than the benefits."

The report also points out that extreme weather has taken a toll on China, which had economic losses of $30 billion due to the Yangtse River flood of 1998. During the same year in the United States, a drought in Florida led to wildfires that caused $276 million in damages. Munich Re also reports that after correcting for increased population, wealth and inflation, economic losses due to natural disasters increased twofold from 1970 to 2000.

To help prevent such losses, Boston-based Applied Insurance Research has announced the release of a severe thunderstorm model for the United States. The model provides a complete picture of thunderstorm risk, storm simulations at high resolution and reliable loss estimates. It also operates on a geographical resolution of 1 square kilometer, which enables loss estimates down to the individual risk level.

AIR estimates average annual aggregate losses to be nearly $5.3 billion due to thunderstorms.