National media thrown off track on governor's race. (Politics).

To judge by the California press, the governor's race is all but over. Poll after poll shows incumbent Democratic Gov. Gray Davis with a substantial lead over Republican challenger Bill Simon. And with the Davis campaign running like a well-oiled machine and the Simon campaign stumbling at every step, conventional wisdom has it only getting worse for Simon by Election Day.

But readers and viewers of the national press are getting a different story. Nationally, the Davis-Simon race is still in play.

There was Robert Novak's Chicago SunTimes column on Oct. 21 that cited a tracking poll taken on Oct. 17 showing Simon leading Davis, 34.2 percent to 33.7 percent. George Will also wrote in a recent column that Simon was still in the race, only 7 points down in the California Field Poll.

Why hasn't the national press put this race to bed? Much of the reason is due to the influence of one man: Jan Van Lohuizen, who happens to be President Bush's chief pollster. When his polls are released, the national media tends to listen.

Van Lohuizen conducted the tracking poll that had Simon with the lead. The poll was actually taken for the Proposition 47 education bond campaign, being run in part by the California Teachers Association.

Trouble is, everyone involved with that poll now calls it an aberration. "It was a two-day spike in the numbers for Simon against Davis," said Becky Zoglman, spokeswoman for the CTA. "We've got polling from over the weekend (Oct. 19 and 20) that showed Davis with a 10-point lead," she said. (The CTA has endorsed Davis.)

When Van Lohuizen's poll was taken, Davis had just received some bad press over revelations alleging that policy decisions were made after receiving contributions. Plus, the state's Latino legislative caucus had just announced it wouldn't be endorsing him because of his veto of a bill that would allow non-citizen immigrants to get drivers' licenses. However, a few days later, Davis won some key endorsements from the Latino community, including the California Hispanic Chambers of Commerce.

What's more, Van Lohuizen's track record in California is less than stellar. Four years ago, he came out with some polls just before the general election showing Dan Lungren within striking distance of Davis. Lungren was crushed on Election Day by 20 points. Last year, he did polling for the unsuccessful gubernatorial bid of Secretary of State Bill Jones.

Reached last week, Van Lohuizen declined to comment on any of his California polling.

Staff reporter Howard Fine can be reached by phone at [phone], ext. 227, or by e-mail at [e-mail].