NUMBERS SPOTLIGHT AREA'S RACIAL DIVIDE.

Byline: Beth Barrett Staff Writer

Is the San Fernando Valley predominately Hispanic or predominately white?

That question is part of a national debate that will focus on just what it means to be Hispanic.

Last week it became clear the answer depends on how the 2000 Census numbers are used. For the first time a broad range of interpretations is possible with wide-ranging political, fiscal and psychological implications.

The public got a glimpse Saturday when the Daily News reported the Valley is predominately Hispanic by a slight margin, 42.1 percent Hispanic to 41.6 percent non-Hispanic white.

The Los Angeles Times, meanwhile, reported whites are still a bit ahead, making up at least 42 percent of the Valley, while Latinos make up 39 percent.

Census experts said Monday that the tables were reproduced by the Daily News as they appeared in bureau files, but that there is nothing to prevent others from using the data in different ways.

The Daily News included people who identified themselves as Hispanics, including Hispanics who also thought of themselves as black or Asian in terms of race, while the Times put those people in the ``other'' category.

Some Latino leaders were skeptical or outraged that the Times would diverge from the Census Bureau tables, saying they would fight using such a methodology when political boundary lines are redrawn.

``On redistricting, I'd use more the Daily News (method) than the Los Angeles Times,'' said Leo F. Estrada, a professor of urban planning at UCLA who works on Latino redistricting matters. ``When you're redistricting, you can't play with different methodologies. You have to have one set.''

Alan Clayton, research chairman for the Los Angeles City/County Latino Redistricting Coalition, said, ``We're outraged the Los Angeles Times would undercount in their graphics the Latino community. It's sad the Los Angeles Times would use statistics to treat the Latino community in a way that discounts the number the census has published.''

Fernando Oaxaca, head of Oaxaca and Associates, a Latino marketing and consulting firm, called the Times' interpretation ``a statistical distortion. It's unfathomable. The census is clear, Latinos are counted as Latinos regardless of race.''

Assistant City Attorney Jessica Heinz, the city's census expert, called the Valley's situation ``fascinating.''

She said she disagreed with the Times' presentation at this preliminary stage. ``I think you have to be real clear in explaining what you're doing before arbitrarily lumping people together and deciding they were others.''

Heinz said the data need careful scrutiny because so many crucial political and legal decisions will rest upon them. ``We want a complete picture. We don't want the news media giving us data that doesn't accurately depict the whole range of information available.''

The different approaches to the San Fernando Valley data starkly illustrate the growing national debate over the census in terms of multiracial identification.

They further show how much can be at stake in ``tipping point'' regions like the Valley where two groups are nearly identical in size.

By using the U.S. Census Bureau's Hispanic category, the Daily News included all people who identified themselves as Hispanics.

``We used what the Census Bureau reported,'' said Daily News Editor David J. Butler.

The Times decided to put Hispanics who identified themselves as black or Asian in an ``other'' category - essentially, lowering the Hispanic range.

David Lauter, a Times senior editor on the Metro Desk, said the paper went ``a step beyond'' the Census Bureau in its ``other'' category and in discussing groups in terms of ``ranges.''

``There are a substantial number of people who list Hispanic and black, or Hispanic and Asian, and we have no way of knowing whether they primarily identify as Latino or primarily as black or Asian, or whatever.''

He said the ``other'' category avoided an ``arbitrary'' assignment of people into one category or another.

How different groups are counted - and based on federal guidelines it appears there ultimately might be different interpretations tailored to specific purposes - has significance for the Valley as it seeks to solidify its identity in deciding whether to secede from Los Angeles.

``The San Fernando Valley is like the recount, Gore versus Bush,'' said Bruce E. Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies, University of California, Berkeley. ``You were at the tipping point as to which is the dominant group. It's a wonderful example of how small differences matter.

``These small differences have huge legal, political and psychological implications.''

Cain said he believes the people of the Valley understand the ``trend'' in the Valley is toward Hispanic predominance. ``The numbers now are probably outdated, and if Hispanics weren't a majority when the census was taken, they are as we speak.''

While there is symbolic significance to ethnic predominance in the Valley and throughout Los Angeles, others said it is not the most important issue.

``The larger story is still that there is a surging new majority,'' said Connie Rice, co-director of the Advancement Project, a legal public-policy action group. ``The Valley should be reacting not to ethnicity but to the ``fault lines of poverty.''

Some of the debate will be clarified this summer when the census releases more detailed population information, including ethnic breakouts.

In academic, political, ethnic and redistricting circles the debate over ethnic and racial apportionment is ongoing, with the way political boundaries are drawn and the manner in which community identity is claimed at stake.

For example, Cain, with Berkeley's Institute for Governmental Studies, said in districts that mirror the Valley's makeup, the way in which Hispanics are counted could determine whether districts are consolidated into Hispanic seats.

Leo F. Estrada, professor of urban planning, said he believes U.S. Justice Department guidelines lean toward counting Hispanics at the upper range.

Census experts disagree over how the Justice Department guidelines - and additional guidelines issued by the federal Office of Management and Budget - should be interpreted.

``This is huge for the San Fernando Valley,'' Estrada said. ``Where we overlap, issues are likely to arise.''

Such fights over placing people in racial and ethnic categories could be particularly pitched in communities like Pacoima, where Hispanic and African-American identities can blur, he said.

He predicted that if blacks are given precedent over Hispanics in the count, the issue could end up in court, especially when it comes to districts where Hispanics are close to becoming a voting majority.

City officials already believe Hispanics were undercounted in the census, resulting in a potential loss of millions in state and federal funds, in addition to a dilution in their political influence.

``If you choose to collapse a certain way you undermine the presence of the Hispanics in the San Fernando Valley and that translates into political power,'' Heinz said.

CAPTION(S):

map

Map: Hispanic Population Change

Information and maps provided by Eugene Turner, professor of geography, California State University, Northridge