NR and SR consumption should rise in 1993.

Anticipated growth in original equipment tire shipments and an increase in the amount of rubber consumed by the non-tire sectors of the rubber industry should boost demand for both natural and synthetic rubbers in 1993, according to estimates by the Rubber Manufacturers Association's Rubber Market Analysis Committee.

A related report from RMA's Tire Market Analysis Committee predicts original equipment tire shipments will reach 50.5 million units in 1993, and will continue its upswing, reaching anticipated shipments of 54.1 million units by 1995. This will help fuel a projected increase in domestic consumption of natural rubber in 1993, which according to RMA's forecast, will reach 954,000 metric tons, a 5% increase over 1992's 910,000 mt.

An increase in the level of rubber consumed by non-tire sectors also will contribute to the growth of NR demand. RMA said this trend is evident in several areas, including producers returning to rubber to address properties of heat and oil resistance that cannot be met with plastic components.

U.S. consumption of dry natural rubber is expected to reach 870,000 mt in 1993, a 5% increase over 1992. Latex natural rubber is anticipated to reach 84,000 mt in 1993, compared to 82,000 mt recorded in 1992, a 2% increase.

U.S. synthetic rubber consumption, including thermoplastic elastomers and carboxylated latex, in 1993 should exceed 2,010 mt, compared to 1,972 mt recorded for 1992. The report says about 50% of synthetic rubber is tied to the tire industry. The standard synthetic rubbers (SBR, polybutadiene, nitrile, polyisoprene, etc.) are expected to show slow to moderate growth rates.

RMAC anticipates both natural and synthetic rubber consumption will continue to rise through 1998, with demand for natural rubber (dry and latex) climbing to more than 1 million mt and synthetic rubber reaching above 2.2 million mt.

The calculation for U.S. rubber consumption relies upon government import data for natural and synthetic rubber. Following an examination of several trade categories, questions have been raised regarding the accuracy of the trade figures, which could lead to an overstatement of U.S. consumption.