NOW THE WEST HAS WON BUSH HEISMAN WIN COULD END REGIONAL BIAS THEORY.

Byline: Scott Wolf  Staff Writer

NEW YORK - USC tailback Reggie Bush is expected to easily win the Heisman Trophy tonight, perhaps by the greatest margin in the award's history.

Bush's victory would give USC an unprecedented third Heisman in four years and would tie the Trojans with Notre Dame for most Heismans won - seven - since the award's inception in 1935.

But the junior tailback would also probably end the theory a bias exists against West Coast players winning the award. For years, there was a popular belief that West Coast candidates, specifically Pacific-10 Conference players, were discriminated against by Heisman voters.

After USC tailback Marcus Allen won in 1981, it took 21 years before another West Coast player - Trojans quarterback Carson Palmer - won the Heisman.

``It really shuts the door on what is known as the West Coast bias,'' said Clark Haptonstall, who wrote his doctorate dissertation on what influences Heisman voters, and is the director of the sports management program at Rice University.

If Bush wins, USC will become just the third school to win Heismans in back-to-back seasons, following quarterback Matt Leinart last year.

``For years, we talked about West Coast bias,'' said Kari Chisholm, a political consultant who analyzes Heisman votes on his Web site, StiffArmTrophy.com. ``But I think USC has a special place in the hearts and minds of the Heisman voters. Besides the winners, Anthony Davis, Ricky Bell and Rodney Peete were also runner-ups.''

That raises the question of whether the West Coast bias no longer exists or if a USC player enjoys a special status that overcomes the regional obstacle. The last non-USC, West Coast player to win the Heisman was UCLA quarterback Gary Beban in 1967.

Neither Haptonstall nor Chisholm believe West Coast bias exists, but Haptonstall said the extraordinary amount of TV coverage the No. 1-ranked Trojans receive makes USC players formidable candidates.

Haptonstall surveyed the 921 Heisman voters who participated in 2003, and 462 responded by ranking variables that influenced them. TV exposure was No. 1, according to Haptonstall.

``USC has gotten more coverage than any college team since Michigan's Fab Five (basketball team in the 1990s),'' Haptonstall said. ``People will vote for the candidate they know best. Typically, it's the local candidate but now, it's become the national media that affects people and they are covering USC a lot more than in the past.''

A former sports information director at Marshall University, Haptonstall said the Trojans' image also helps them influence voters.

``They come across as very media friendly,'' he said. ``It's not uncommon to see them on `ESPN College GameDay' late at night after a game.''

Haptonstall also believes Palmer's victory in 2002, which ended USC's personal two-decade drought, led to the ensuing success for Bush and Leinart, who Friday was named winner of the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award in Louisville, Ky., given to the nation's top senior quarterback.

``Once USC got recognition through Palmer's initial victory and enjoyed success, it opened up the doors,'' he said.

None of this matters to Bush, who just wants to win his first Heisman Trophy.

``It would mean everything,'' he said. ``I'd be lying if I said I didn't want to win. It's the best player in college football. It's a chance to go down in history.''

But he claimed to ignore the analysis showing he would win overwhelmingly tonight.

``You can't control Heisman voting,'' Bush said. `` Last year, I was the new kid on the block trying to make my mark in college football. This year, everyone is more familiar with me. I was sitting back watching (the festivities last year), not worrying. But I'm still not worried about it this year.''

Chisholm said Bush doesn't need to worry. He believes Bush might receive the most votes of any Heisman candidate in history.

``Our analysis suggests that Bush may earn 82 percent to 86 percent of the points possible,'' Chisholm said. ``That's within striking distance of the previous top two - Ricky Williams 85.2 percent and Charlie Ward 83.8 percent.''

It also means, should Bush be selected, USC will have won seven Heismans since 1965, when athletic director Mike Garrett claimed the Trojans' first trophy.

``USC will tie Notre Dame with the most Heismans ever, but Notre Dame only won one in the last 40 years,'' Chisholm said. ``USC has won all of theirs in the past 40 years.''

Scott Wolf, [phone]

scott.wolf(at)dailynews.com

CAPTION(S):

2 photos, box

Photo:

(1) Should he win the Heisman Trophy, USC running back Reggie Bush, leaping over UCLA's Marcus Cassell, would be the third Trojan in four years to claim the award.

Steven Georges/Staff Photographer

(2 -- color) USC running back, favored to win the Heisman trophy.

Box:

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