NOW HERE IT COMES: THE FLOOD POLITICAL ADS SET TO HIT HOT, HEAVY.

Byline: Harrison Sheppard Sacramento Bureau

SACRAMENTO - The special-election campaign hits its final throes this week, and voters will be bombarded with a flurry of competing messages on television, in their mailboxes and in face-to-face visits to their doorsteps.

With the latest poll showing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's reform measures lagging but within striking distance, and with a low voter turnout projected, campaigns will be aggressively intensifying last-minute efforts to get core supporters to the polls.

``In the last week of this campaign, the airwaves are going to be so filled with advertising, I don't think any one ad is going to have an impact,'' said political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of the University of Southern California.

``So they might as well do it the old-fashioned way and get out there and drag people to the voting booths.''

The governor's final week of campaigning will be highlighted by a series of live, televised town-hall forums up and down the state. He has forums this week in Los Angeles, San Luis Obispo and Sacramento, similar to events he did last week in Fresno and Walnut Creek, as well as in Sacramento for Univision.

``He's clearly decided he wants to talk to real people,'' said Barbara O'Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and the Media at California State University, Sacramento.

``It's a shame he didn't do it sooner. I think he does better in that format. The voters would not have had to endure these relentless negative ads.''

The first forum in Walnut Creek last week featured two opponents speaking about the measures as well, but not while Schwarzenegger was on stage, and most of the subsequent events will not feature any opponents.

His Los Angeles forum is Thursday at KNBC (Channel 4) studios at 5 p.m.

Schwarzenegger also has just launched a television ad that features him speaking directly to camera.

His campaign had been criticized for pulling ads that featured the governor, with the implication that his personal low ratings in polls were driving down his campaign for reform measures on the ballot.

Campaign officials said they were just trying to rotate the message and the ads, and in the new ad Schwarzenegger takes a more humble, almost apologetic, tone.

``Two years ago, you elected me to change Sacramento and put California back on track,'' he says in the ad. ``I've had a lot to learn. Sometimes I learned the hard way. But my heart is in this, and I want to do right by you.''

The governor's opponents will continue to dog the governor at events, holding rallies and ``faux debates'' outside of his appearances where he has refused to engage opponents.

And they, too, will continue intense get-out-the-vote efforts.

``Up and down the state, we're going to be having get-out-the-vote picnics, get-out-the-vote rallies, and most importantly, get-out-the-vote precinct walks, where we're actually talking to voters one-on-one,'' said Robin Swanson, spokeswoman for the Alliance for a Better California.

``In every region across California, there is going be phone banking. Usually it's a theme night - sometimes we'll have phone banks with firefighters, or sometimes it's with (political) leaders.''

Fundraising for the election overall has totaled in the range of $200 million to $250 million, with the largest single source of fundraising coming from the pharmaceutical industry, which amassed more than $80 million to promote the drug-discount measure Proposition 78.

The industry is also working to defeat Proposition 79, a separate drug-discount measure proposed by consumer groups, who have raised less than $1 million, though they are getting assistance from the alliance.

The alliance has raised more than $33 million to defeat Schwarzenegger's reform measures, though many unions are raising additional funds through separate committees and Schwarzenegger's campaign has estimated the unions collectively have raised more than $100 million.

The California Teachers Association alone has contributed at least $53 million to anti-Schwarzenegger efforts, much of it coming from a dues increase on its own members.

Schwarzenegger's California Recovery Team, meanwhile, has raised about $34 million, with the governor chipping in more than $4 million from his own pocket.

Harrison Sheppard, [phone]

harrison.sheppard(at)dailynews.com