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NOVEMBER SURVEY SUGGESTS FULL-SCALE RECOVERY

 DETROIT, Dec. 1 ~PRNewswire~ -- November's Purchasing Management index of business conditions in Southeast Michigan surged 9.2 points, according to the National Association of Purchasing Management-Metro Detroit (NAPM-MD). The November composite index of overall business conditions for the region's industrial economy was 62.1, compared with 52.9 in October and only 43.2 in November a year ago.
 COMMENT:
 "November is traditionally a bellwether month for obtaining a reliable economic reading for the coming year," according to David L. Littmann, first vice president and senior economist with Comerica Bank in Detroit.
 Littmann said that although he regards the latest survey results as definitive with regard to better business conditions, he believes that a later tally, including straggling responses, could moderate the apparent surge. "There is no doubt that this important November survey is accurately revealing the general direction of the local industrial economy in 1993. Strength of new order and production activity virtually guarantees continued improvement. However, preliminary survey results were heavily weighted on the automotive side which showed exceptional vigor. If later respondents bring the total survey into line with the usual 25-75 percent mix (auto to non-auto), then a downward revision is expected," Littmann said.
 Littmann added that he was encouraged by the strength in the employment responses and by the continued pattern of improvement without price pressures.
 Items in short supply during November included freon, microprocessors and some specialized microcomputers, surface-mount electronic components and powder-metal parts.
 AUTO NON-AUTO TOTAL
 Oct. Nov. Oct. Nov. Oct. Nov.
 NAPM--MD Index 65.6 70.7 48.2 57.5 52.9 62.1
 Production 78.6 76.5 52.6 57.8 59.6 64.3
 New Orders 75.0 70.6 59.2 62.5 63.5 65.3
 Inventories 60.7 55.9 38.2 45.3 44.2 49.0
 Employment 53.6 70.6 34.2 51.6 39.4 58.2
 Vendor Performance 39.3 47.1 40.5 43.5 40.2 44.8
 Prices 50.0 52.9 53.9 45.3 52.9 48.0
 Weighting 26.9 34.7 73.1 65.3 100.0 100.0
 Comerica Bank compiles the NAPM-MD survey report from monthly responses of local purchasing managers belonging to the 500-member NAPM- MD (National Association of Purchasing Management--Metro Detroit). The report indicates whether fundamental measures of the economy are stronger, weaker, or unchanged from the prior month.
 The Composite Index (CI) is a seasonally adjusted weighted average measure of new orders and production activity along with employment, inventories, and the promptness of supplier company deliveries. The index ranges from 0 to 100. A CI below 50 generally means conditions are deteriorating; CI levels above 50 denote expansion. The CI and its components have been tabulated since October 1985.
 -0- 12~1~92
 ~CONTACT: David L. Littmann, First Vice President & Senior Economist, Comerica Bank, 313-222-7241~
 (CMA)


CO: Comerica Incorporated ST: Michigan IN: FIN SU: ECO

SB -- DE009 -- 2347 12~01~92 10:46 EST
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Date:Nov 24, 1992
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