NO END TO VALLEY JAMS? 80% RISE IN TRAFFIC EXPECTED BY 2025.

Byline: Joseph Giordono and Lisa Van Proyen Staff Writers

As more people come to live and work in the San Fernando Valley, traffic has worsened along its main freeway routes, bringing what was once a relatively easy commute across the Valley floor to a frustrating crawl.

According to Caltrans, the greatest traffic volume increases have occurred along the Ronald Reagan (118) and San Diego (405) freeway interchange and along the Ventura (101) Freeway near the Ventura County line. ``What we are seeing is that growth in the northern and western parts of the Valley - and beyond - have really contributed to the jamming up of the major entry points,'' said Jeanne Bonfilio, a Caltrans spokeswoman.

``People are living farther out and using those interchanges more, but they are not having to travel all the way into downtown.''

Daily traffic volume along the northern end of the 405 Freeway has jumped by as much as 40,000 vehicles since 1994 to more than 200,000 vehicles in 1999. Along the 101 Freeway in the West Valley, daily traffic volume has increased by almost 20,000 vehicles a day to more than 280,000 a day during the same period.

According to traffic experts, there is no end in sight.

Officials from the Southern California Association of Governments expect traffic volume throughout the Valley to increase by as much as 80 percent by the year 2025.

With fully one-fourth of all the population growth in Los Angeles County projected to occur in the Santa Clarita and Antelope valleys during the next two decades, countywide freeway speeds during a typical rush hour are expected to drop from 34 mph to 20 mph, Caltrans reports.

``This is all due to the growth of residential areas on the outer fringes of the Valley, and there is no reason to see why that will not continue for the next several years,'' said Hasan Ikhrata, a SCAG traffic expert.

SCAG has undertaken a two-year, $4.5 million study to find ways to ease the congestion. Due for release next month, the report will consider adding lanes to existing freeways, creating more car-pool lanes and even double-decking some freeways.

The most significant change in traffic patterns in Los Angeles has been on the far western end of the San Fernando Valley, at the Los Angeles- Ventura County line, said Nick Jones, a Caltrans senior transportation engineer.

In 1999, Caltrans counted 180,000 vehicles that pass both sides of the 101 Ventura Freeway at the county line daily - or 25,000 more vehicles compared to five years earlier. In 1989, 144,000 vehicles passed that same point.

``There's more traffic around Agoura Hills and Westlake Village,'' Jones said.

In the past, that edge of the Valley near the Ventura County line was considered a ``bedroom community'' for people who worked in Los Angeles, Jones said.

But with cheaper office space rents and more tax break offerings than Los Angeles, jobs are becoming more plentiful in this area, Jones said.

``Now, it's becoming a place of employment,'' he said. ``The 101 is now busy in either direction from the San Fernando Valley to the Conejo Valley. I think it's mostly because of the jobs,'' he said.

The flourishing areas for high-tech businesses include Thousand Oaks, Camarillo and Oxnard, Jones said.

``I'm seeing shifts in traffic in those areas. There, you're kinda getting what happened to Orange County 30 years ago,'' Jones said.

Critics said that the huge increases in traffic volume have gone largely unaddressed and that planners will face a crisis sooner than they think.

``What you have is a planning system that applies a fixed model to a situation that is very fluid,'' said Geoffrey Segal of the Reason Public Policy Institute, an environmental and transportation think tank.

``The models for population and employment forecasting do not take into account recent changes, and they are not going to be accurate in predicting what the situation will be 25 years in the future.''

Segal cited the growth of Warner Center in Woodland Hills as an example of botched forecasting.

``What the transit authority and other planners did not realize is that people not wanting to drive all the way into downtown would lead to the buildup of commercial areas such as Warner Center,'' Segal said. ``That one center alone adds a lot to the congestion that you are seeing along the 101 through the Valley.''

The major change, he said, is that commuters no longer travel from the suburbs to the city. Now, with no definite traffic patterns, ``everyone is going everywhere.''

Metropolitan Transportation Authority officials said they are already at work on a long-range plan that takes into account growth in the North and West Valley areas. Both the MTA and SCAG expect to release their 25-year plans in the coming months.

``We know that the growth is everywhere, so all options need to be evaluated,'' said James de la Loza, head planner for the MTA.

Despite those assurances, confusion between local officials can still lead to inaccurate projections.

Earlier this month, Ventura County officials provided state traffic planners with volume estimates for the year 2020 that did not include the 3,050 home Ahmanson Ranch development.

Ventura officials blamed the exclusion on numbers provided by SCAG, and promised to provide the state with updated volume projections as soon as possible.

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Map: JAMMED TRAFFIC

Traffic has worsened along the San Fernando Valley's main routes: the Ventura, San Diego and Hollywood freeways. Caltrans' reports that traffic at the Los Angeles-Ventura County line and the 118/405 interchange has risen significantly.

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