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NL PREVIEWS : WEST DODGERS.

Byline: Compiled by Tim Brown

Manager: Tom Lasorda

Last year: 78-66, 1st in NL West

Who's new: SS Greg Gagne, 3B Mike Blowers, LHP Scott Radinsky, OF Milt Thompson

Who's gone: SS Jose Offerman, 3B Tim Wallach, OF Roberto Kelly

They'll win if: Mike Piazza and Eric Karros aren't intimidated by playing in the final years of their contracts.

They'll lose if: the players begin measuring for ring sizes in mid-July, and Fred Claire takes their orders.

Forecast: 96-66

SAN DIEGO PADRES Manager: Bruce Bochy

Last year: 70-74, 3rd in NL West

Who's new: OF Rickey Henderson, 1B Wally Joyner, RHP Bob Tewksbury, RHP Sean Bergman, OF Todd Steverson

Who's gone: INF-OF Bip Roberts, OF Phil Plantier, RHP Richie Lewis

They'll win if: A rumor starts that Rickey Henderson is in the final year of his contract, and it gets back to Rickey.

They'll lose if: The Dodgers decide to go ahead and play the season.

Forecast: 82-80

COLORADO ROCKIES Manager: Don Baylor

Last year: 77-67, 2nd in NL West

Who's new: C Jeff Reed

Who's gone: C Joe Girardi, OF Mike Kingery, INF Roberto Mejia

They'll win if: They start awarding points in the standings for grotesque ERA's and sore necks.

They'll lose if: Bret Saberhagen's shoulder isn't ready to join the rotation until after the Rockies are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Forecast: 78-84

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS Manager: Dusty Baker

Last year: 67-77, 4th in NL West

Who's new: OF Stan Javier, LHP Allen Watson, RHP Rich DeLucia

Who's gone: OF Deion Sanders, SS Royce Clayton, LHP Trevor Wilson, INF Mike Benjamin

They'll win if: Journeyman Stan Javier is the leadoff hitter they've been looking for, and not the journeyman they've had all along.

They'll lose if: Matt Williams, who played in 76 games last season, does not become Matt Williams again, and if Shawon Dunston does become Shawon Dunston again.

Forecast: 77-85

CENTRAL CINCINNATI REDS Manager: Ray Knight

Last year: 85-59, 1st in NL Central

Who's new: OF Vince Coleman, OF Mike Kelly

Who's gone: OF Ron Gant, RHP Mike Jackson, OF Darren Lewis, C Benito Santiago, LHP David Wells

They'll win if: The transition from Davey Johnson coddling to Ray Knight ferocity doesn't freeze the players and scare the dog.

They'll lose if: There is no early replacement for injured closer Jeff Brantley, and they lose touch with the Cardinals and Astros.

Forecast: 88-74

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS Manager: Tony La Russa

Last year: 62-81, 4th in NL Central

Who's new: RHP Andy Benes, SS Royce Clayton, 3B Gary Gaetti, OF Ron Gant, RHP Todd Stottlemyre, RHP Dennis Eckersley

Who's gone: RHP Rich DeLucia, 3B Scott Cooper

They'll win if: Pitching coach Dave Duncan can perform the same mysticism in St. Louis that he did by the Bay.

They'll lose if: Eck's control no longer matches his heart, because his fastball hasn't in years.

Forecast: 87-75

HOUSTON ASTROS Manager: Terry Collins

Last year: 76-68, 2nd in NL Central

Who's new: INFs Sean Berry and Ray Holbert

Who's gone: C Pat Borders, 1B Dave Magadan, OF Milt Thompson

They'll win if: Right-hander Darryl Kile rediscovers the strike zone and becomes the best fifth-starter in the National League.

They'll lose if: Thirty-somethings Doug Drabek (4.77) and Greg Swindell (4.47) don't pull their ERAs into the three-somethings.

Forecast: 81-81

Chicago Cubs Manager: Jim Riggleman

Last year: 73-31, 3rd in NL Central

Who's new: 2B Ryne Sandberg, LHP Bob Patterson, 1B Dave Magadan, RHP Doug Jones

Who's gone: SS Shawon Dunston, 3B Howard Johnson, LHP Randy Myers, 3B Todd Zeile

They'll win if: By the end of their season, anyone outside of Rush Street can name three of their five starters. Incidentally, they are Jaime Navarro, Frank Castillo, Kevin FosFter, Jim Bullinger and Steve Trachsel.

They'll lose if: The folks in the bleachers are still talking about the loss of closer Randy Myers by the time they can take their shirts off.

Forecast: 73-89

PITTSBURGH PIRATES Manager: Jim Leyland

Last year: 58-86, 5th in NL Central

Who's new: 3B Charlie Hayes, OF Mike Kingery, LHP Kevin Rogers, RHP Danny Darwin

Who's gone: RHP Jim Gott, C Mark Parent, C Don Slaught

They'll win if: Uh...um...geez...well, maybe Jim Leyland can do something with them.

They'll lose if: Something isn't done about the starting rotation, fast, right now and forever.

Forecast: 64-98

EAST ATLANTA BRAVES Manager: Bobby Cox

Last year: 90-54, 1st in NL East

Who's new: OF Dwight Smith, OF Jerome Walton

Who's gone: RHP Steve Bedrosian, OF Mike Kelly, LHP Kent Mercker

They'll win if: The bus gets to the ballpark on time. The rest of the division isn't close, even if the Braves are World Series fat.

They'll lose if: Down years in 1995 by David Justice, Fred McGriff and Marquis Grissom turn into career trends.

Forecast: 98-64

FLORIDA MARLINS Manager: Rene Lachemann

Last year: 67-76, 4th in NL East

Who's new: RHP Kevin Brown, RHP Wilson Heredia, OF Devon White, OF Joe Orsulak

Who's gone: RHP Bobby Witt, RHP Bryan Harvey, OF Nigel Wilson

They'll win if: Newcomers Kevin Brown and Al Leiter hold up the rotation until Cuban Livan Hernandez arrives.

They'll lose if: Gary Sheffield keeps running into the law, or if Terry Pendleton finally bumps into old age.

Forecast: 85-77

NEW YORK METSManager: Dallas Green

Last year: 69-75, T2nd in NL East

Who's new: OF Bernard Gilkey, OF Lance Johnson, RHP Derek Wallace, LHP Chris Nabholz

Who's gone: OF Damon Buford, OF Joe Orsulak

They'll win if: Right-handers Jason Isringhausen and Paul Wilson and left-hander Bill Pulsipher are wild-card-race ready, thoFugh none has seen his 25th birthday.

They'll lose if: Shortstop Rey Ordonez turns out to be the next Bud Harrelson, rather than the next Ozzie Smith, as he has been touted.

Forecast: 80-82

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Manager: Jim Fregosi

Last year: 69-75, T2nd in NL East

Who's new: 3B Todd Zeile, INF Mike Benjamin, RHP Ken Ryan, Benito Santiago

Who's gone: 3B Charlie Hayes, OF Andy Van Slyke, RHP Heathcliff Slocumb

They'll win if: Benito Santiago is young again, Darren Daulton is young again, Lenny Dyksra is young again, Sid Fernandez is. . .

They'll lose if: Daulton, at 34, can't play left field any better than Pete Incaviglia, at 24.

Forecast: 74-88

MONTREAL EXPOS Manager: Felipe Alou

Last year: 66-78, 5th in NL East

Who's new: INF Dave Silvestri, LHP Rheal Cormier, RHP Dave Veres, INF Ryan McGuire

Who's gone: LHP Butch Henry, INF Wil Cordero, INF Sean Berry, RHP Gil Heredia

They'll win if: Baseball's salary cap and revenue sharing arrive before payday.

They'll lose if: That $15 million payroll is the start of a you-get-what-you-pay-for year.

Forecast: 71-91

AL PREVIEWS WEST ANGELS Manager: Marcel Lachemann

Last year: 78-67, 2nd in AL West

Who's new: RHP Steve Ontiveros, INF Randy Velarde, LHP Joey Rosselli, RHP Bryan Harvey, RHP Jason Grimsley

Who's gone: RHP Mike Harkey, C Greg Myers, INF Tony Phillips, INF Spike Owen, LHP Bob Patterson

They'll win if: Tony Phillips wasn't as important to the offense as the entire organization agreed he was last season.

They'll lose if: The starting pitchers get lazy with all of the run support, as appeared to happen last August.

Forecast: 88-74

SEATTLE MARINERS Manager: Lou Piniella

Last year: 79-66, 1st in AL West

Who's new: OF Luis Polonia, 1B Paul Sorrento, INF Russ Davis, RHP Mike Jackson, LHP Sterling Hitchcock, RHP Mike Butcher

Who's gone: OF Vince Coleman, 1B Tino MartineFz, 3B Mike Blowers, RHP Tim Belcher, RHP Andy Benes, RHP Jeff Nelson

They'll win if: Their 1995 knockout of the Angels isn't undermined by the losses of cornermen Martinez and Blowers.

They'll lose if: Ken Griffey Jr.'s presidential candidacy takes hold, and he names mouthy Luis Polonia as his running mate.

Forecast: 86-76

TEXAS RANGERS Manager: Johnny Oates

Last year: 74-70, 3rd in AL West

Who's new: RHP Ken Hill, OF Damon Buford, OF Darryl Hamilton, RHP Mike Henneman

Who's gone: RHP Danny Darwin, RHP Roger McDowell, OF Otis Nixon, RHP Bob Tewksbury

They'll win if: Three-through-six in the batting order - Will Clark, Juan Gonzalez, Dean Palmer and Mickey Tettleton - go for 110 homers and 350 RBI.

They'll lose if: Starter Ken Hill is called upon to stop losing streaks all season long.

Forecast: 81-81

OAKLAND ATHLETICS Manager: Art Howe

Last year: 67-77, 4th in AL West

Who's new: OF Pedro Munoz, 1B Phil Plantier

Who's gone: OF Rickey Henderson, OF Stan Javier, RHP Steve Ontiveros, RHP Todd Stottlemyre, IF Fausto Cruz, RHP Ramon Fermin

They'll win if: Turn Back the Clock Day returns only to the early '90s.

They'll lose if: Todd Van Poppel shows any signs of being a major-league pitcher. But, at least it'll make the scouting department feel better.

Forecast: 70-92

CENTRAL CLEVELAND INDIANS Manager: Mike Hargrove

Last year: 100-44, 1st in AL Central

Who's new: RHP Jack McDowell, INF Julio Franco

Who's gone: RHP Ken Hill, 1B Paul Sorrento, OF Dave Winfield

They'll win if: Albert Belle is allowed to play his game in a vacuum - no fans, no media, no pressure, no teammates, no trick-or-treaters, no Hannah Storm - but lots of cash.

They'll lose if: Orel Hershiser and Dennis Martinez, thus far aging gracefully, break down.

Forecast: 103-59

CHICAGO WHITE SOX Manager: Terry Bevington

Last year: 68-76, 3rd in AL CentraFl

Who's new: OF Tony Phillips, OF Danny Tartabull, OF Darren Lewis, DH Harold Baines, RHP Kevin Tapani

Who's gone: OF Lance Johnson, OF Tim Raines, LHP Scott Radinsky, C Mike LaValliere

They'll win if: Every time they play the Indians, it happens to be at a time when Tony Phillips is not retired.

They'll lose if: None of Harold Baines, Danny Tartabull and Robin Ventura is enough to convince opponents to pitch to Frank Thomas.

Forecast: 87-75

MINNESOTA TWINS Manager: Tom Kelly

Last year: 56-88, 5th in AL Central

Who's new: OF Roberto Kelly, DH Paul Molitor, C Greg Myers

Who's gone: RHP Scott Erickson, 3B Scott Leius, OF Pedro Munoz

They'll win if: Class acts Paul Molitor and Kirby Puckett have just enough left to overcome what is among the worst pitching staffs in the league.

They'll lose if: Rick Aguilera, a starter turned closer turned starter again, is neither come July.

Forecast: 73-89

KANSAS CITY ROYALS Manager: Bob Boone

Last year: 70-74, 2nd in AL Central

Who's new: RHP Tim Belcher, C Mike Macfarlane, SS Jose Offerman, 2B Bip Roberts

Who's gone: 3B Gary Gaetti, SS Greg Gagne, 1B Wally Joyner, C Brent Mayne, RHP Gregg Olson

They'll win if: The best player in the organization isn't still a guy named George Brett.

They'll lose if: An infield of, from left to right, Keith Lockhart, Jose Offerman, Bip Roberts and Bob Hamelin, is even close to being as bad as it sounds.

Forecast: 72-90

MILWAUKEE BREWERS Manager: Phil Garner

Last year: 65-79, 4th in AL Central

Who's new: OF Chuck Carr, RHP Ben McDonald, C Matt Nokes

Who's gone: OF Darryl Hamilton, C Joe Oliver, INF B.J. Surhoff, RHP Bill Wegman

They'll win if: They can pry winning seasons from two or three starters, which would be two or three more than they had last season.

They'll lose if: Phil Garner's scrap turns from iron to heap before the season is half through.

Forecast: 70-92

EAST BALTIMORE ORIOLES Manager: Davey Johnson

Last year: 71-73, 3rd in AL East

Who's new: 2B Roberto Alomar, OF Mike Devereaux, LHP Kent Mercker, LHP Randy Myers, LHP David Wells, Roger McDowell

Who's gone: RHP Kevin Brown, RHP Doug Jones, RHP Ben McDonald

They'll win if: Brady Anderson and Alomar each score 110 runs, a sure sign that Rafael Palmeiro and Bobby Bonilla have some O left for the Orioles.

They'll lose if: Mercker - the ``and one'' part of the Braves' Fab Four and one rotation - was better off at the end of a rotation than in the middle of it.

Forecast: 94-68

NEW YORK YANKEES Manager: Joe Torre

Last year: 79-65, 2nd in AL East

Who's new: 1B Tino Martinez, RHP Jeff Nelson, OF Tim Raines, LHP Kenny Rogers, RHP Dwight Gooden

Who's gone: INF Russ Davis, 1B Don Mattingly, RHP Jack McDowell, OF Darryl Strawberry, INF Randy Velarde

They'll win if: Jimmy Key's shoulder mends quickly enough to join the rotation before David Cone's gives out.

They'll lose if: George Steinbrenner decides June 1 is a bad time to be 1-1/2 games out of first.

Forecast: 90-72

BOSTON RED SOX Manager: Kevin Kennedy

Last year: 86-58, 1st in AL East

Who's new: 2B Wil Cordero, RHP Tom Gordon, RHP Heathcliff Slocumb, C Mike Stanley, DH Kevin Mitchell

Who's gone: RHP Rick Aguilera, OF Willie McGee, RHP Ken Ryan, OF Mark Whiten, OF Lee Tinsley

They'll win if: Roger Clemens wins 20 games. It would be his first such season since 1990.

They'll lose if: Jose Canseco plays more than 50 games in right field. The Red Sox were the league's worst fielding team last season, and that won't help.

Forecast: 89-73

DETROIT TIGERS Manager: Buddy Bell

Last year: 60-84, 4th in AL East

Who's new: C Mark Parent, INF Mark Lewis, OF Melvin Nieves, IF Fausto Cruz, RHP Ramon Fermin, RHP Richie Lewis

Who's gone: OF Milt Cuyler, INF Scott Fletcher, RHFP Mike Henneman, RHP Mike Moore, INF Lou Whitaker, OF Todd Steverson, RHP Sean Bergman, OF Phil Plantier

They'll win if: General manager Randy Smith can stay patient, rebuild the farm system, draft wisely. Oh, this year. Never mind.

They'll lose if: Everyone plays within themselves, one game at a time, and gives 110 percent.

Forecast: 69-93

TORONTO BLUE JAYS Manager: Cito Gaston

Last year: 56-88, 5th in AL East

Who's new: RHP Erik Hanson, OF Otis Nixon, C Charlie O'Brien, RHP Bill Risley

Who's gone: 2B Roberto Alomar, LHP Al Leiter, DH Paul Molitor, RHP Duane Ward, OF Devon White

They'll win if: Juan Guzman looks anything like the pitcher he did a few years ago. Of course, that would just be a start.

They'll lose if: Joe Carter is too old, Alex Gonzalez too young, Otis Nixon too old, Carlos Delgado too young.

Forecast: 62-100

CAPTION(S):

3 Photos, Chart, Box

Photo: (1) San Francisco's Barry Bonds

(2) M innesota's Kirby Puckett

(3) Baltimore's Cal Ripken, Jr., left, and Roberto Alomar.

Chart: ON THE MOVE

Box: ON THE AIR
COPYRIGHT 1996 Daily News
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 1996, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Title Annotation:SPORTS
Publication:Daily News (Los Angeles, CA)
Date:Mar 28, 1996
Words:2379
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