NFL FLIP-FLOP; LEAGUE'S BALANCE OF POWER SHIFTS FROM NFC TO AFC.

Byline: Eric Gilmore Contra Costa Times 

The evidence began trickling in two years ago when the AFC posted a 32-28 record in head-to-head regular-season games against the NFC.

More proof arrived last season when the AFC won the head-to-head battle again, going 31-28-1.

Then Denver offered an argument for newfound AFC supremacy that even the most ardent Packers backer or most faithful San Francisco 49ers fan couldn't ignore.

The Broncos did the unthinkable. They shocked Green Bay 31-24 in Super Bowl XXXII, ending the NFC's 13-year reign as NFL king.

``It was a pretty big deal, without a doubt in the world,'' said former 49ers offensive lineman Randy Cross, now an NFL analyst for CBS. ``People for half a generation had grown up thinking the AFC couldn't win one. It took an NFC-style team playing in the AFC to do it.''

The apparent shift in the balance of NFL power, though, goes far beyond Denver's rise to the top.

With two weeks to go this season, the AFC holds a 28-20 edge in head-to-head battles against the NFC. Ten of the AFC's 15 teams are .500 or better. Only seven NFC teams can make that claim.

Two of the 49ers' three regular-season losses last year came against AFC West teams. This year, one of the 49ers' three losses came to Buffalo of the AFC East. They needed to work overtime to beat the AFC East's Jets 36-30. And they needed a huge helping hand from the referees to beat Indianapolis, the AFC East's doormat, 34-31.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have gone 3-1 against the NFC East and 4-6 against fellow AFC teams.

Even 49ers director of player personnel Vinny Cerrato gives the AFC its due, albeit grudgingly.

``I guess you have to give a little edge to the AFC at the present,'' Cerrato said. ``They won the Super Bowl last year. So they've got the defending Super Bowl champ. They've got the dominant team in the league at Denver. You've got to knock off the champion, then go from there.''

Denver may be the defending Super Bowl champion, but nowhere has the power shift been greater than in the AFC East and NFC East.

From 1986 to 1995, the beasts from the NFC East won seven Super Bowls. Dallas won three. Washington and the New York Giants won two apiece.

Now the NFC East is a mere shell of its former self. The Cowboys lead the division at 8-6. No other team is above .500. The once-great division is 5-13 this year against the AFC West.

``It's gotten pretty ugly, pretty quick,'' said former 49ers receiver Brent Jones, also a CBS analyst.

The AFC East, meanwhile, boasts four teams with at least eight wins: the Jets (10-4), Bills (9-5), Dolphins (9-5) and Patriots (8-6). In many ways, it's as if the divisions have traded places.

``What the AFC East is doing is they're playing basically NFC East football,'' Cerrato said. ``Run the football, play good defense. I think the mentality's changed in the AFC East. They used to be the wide-open throw it (division). Now they pound the football and play great defense.''

That should come as no surprise. Former Giants coach Bill Parcells coaches the Jets. Former Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson leads the Dolphins.

``You look at a Parcells moving from the NFC to the AFC,'' said Walsh, a former Stanford receiver. ``Look at Jimmy Johnson, moving from the NFC to the AFC. The NFC has been dominant. It comes from up top. The head coach sets the tempo of how teams are going to be.''

CONFERENCE DOMINANCE

The AFC has won its head-to-head battle with the NFC each of the past three years. But this wasn't always the case. Here's the head-to-head records between the two conferences beginning when the NFC dominated during the 1991 season, which was the most one-sided since the old AFL merged with the NFL in 1970:

Year AFC NFC Tie

1991 19 33 0

1992 22 30 0

1993 27 25 0

1994 25 27 0

1995 27 33 0

1996 32 28 0

1997 31 28 1

1998 2820 0

CAPTION(S):

2 Photos, Box

PHOTO (1--Color) While Trent Dilfer's Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the rest of the NFC struggles . . .

Paul Warner/Associated Press

(2--Color) . . . Keyshawn Johnson's New York Jets and the AFC have had great success.

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

BOX: CONFERENCE DOMINANCE (see text)