NFL DRAFT: PICK HIGH OR TRADE? IT'S A REAL COIN FLIP.

Byline: BILLY WITZ

Staff Writer

Somewhere deep in the Oakland Raiders' draft room, baby-faced head coach Lane Kiffin and wizened owner Al Davis will send word this morning to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell what they plan to do with the first pick in the draft.

The Raiders, to the outside world, appear to be considering LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell and Georgia Tech receiver Calvin Johnson, the choice between a franchise quarterback or the consensus best player in the draft.

A pair of economics professors, though, have a different bit of advice for the Raiders owner.

Trade it.

Cade Massey of Yale and Richard H. Thaler of the University of Chicago believe that even though teams are likely to get a better player the higher they draft, the costs and the uncertainty of the top picks don't justify it.

"The first pick is the least valuable pick in the first round," said Massey, the co-author of "The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Efficiency in the National Football League Draft."

"It's kind of backward," Massey continued. "The best place to draft is at the end of the first round."

Massey doesn't expect teams to find better players there. But when performance is matched against salary and examined in the context of the salary cap, the best value is often found later in the first round.

Mike Mayock, a draft analyst for the NFL Network, hadn't seen Massey and Thaler's 59-page paper, but he's not surprised by its findings.

"Most of the coaches and general managers I know are scared to death of a top-10 pick," Mayock said. "Not only because you stunk the year before, but because the reality is if you make a mistake in the top 10 with the salary cap dollars tied to that you set the franchise back three to five years."

What Massey and Thaler have shown is that each player in the draft is 53 percent more likely to start more games than the player at his position chosen directly behind him, and 51 percent more likely to make the Pro Bowl. Amongst first-round picks, the numbers are slightly higher.

Essentially, though, it's a coin flip.

In the 2004 draft, most scouts were bullish on three quarterbacks -- Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger -- but were divided on what order to rate them.

Thus far, Roethlisberger won a Super Bowl in Pittsburgh, Rivers led San Diego to a 14-2 record last season, and Manning, while inconsistent, has led the Giants to back-to-back playoff berths.

The real difference, though, is in their salaries. As the No. 1 pick, Manning signed a six-year deal worth $54 million; Rivers got a $40.5 million contract as the fourth pick; and Roethlisberger, who went 11th, received one worth $22.26 million.

So even if the Giants preferred Manning over Roethlisberger at this point, is he more than twice as good?

Put that question to the Colts -- would they prefer Peyton Manning to Ryan Leaf, the choice they had in the 1997 draft -- and of course it's a different answer.

Or why have the Lions landed lemons with top 10 picks, such as Joey Harrington, Charles Rogers and Mike Williams, while the Colts thrived outside the top 10, landing defensive end Dwight Freeney (11th), tight end Dallas Clark (24th), running back Joseph Addai (30th) and safety Bob Sanders (44th)?

"Some are very good at it, some are not very good," said A.J. Smith, the San Diego Chargers general manager, whose last three drafts are the foundation of a team many consider the NFL's most talented. "In our business, the great question is why are their first rounders, second rounders, seventh rounders and free agents who go to the Pro Bowl?"

So, barring a trade, the Raiders will inform Goodell who they'll choose with the top pick in the draft.

Kiffin and Davis may be sure, but to others it looks like the flip of a $50 million coin.

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- Matthew Kredell