NEXT UP: LA NINA: EXPERTS WARN OF COLD, DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING WET ONSLAUGHT.Byline: David R. Baker Daily News Staff Writer With El Nino still raging against the California coast, some of the nation's top forecasters warn that we may be visited late this year by his chillier but equally destructive twin: La Nina La Niña n. A cooling of the ocean surface off the western coast of South America, occurring periodically every 4 to 12 years and affecting Pacific and other weather patterns. . She is El Nino's opposite: cold instead of warm, and in Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, , dry instead of wet. But like her better-known brother, La Nina has the power to alter weather conditions around the world. Some long-range forecasts say she could arrive in the fall as a rebound effect rebound effect The worsening of Sx when a drug–eg, a decongestant, is discontinued, attributed to tissue dependence on the agent of El Nino, which begins with unusually warm waters in the equatorial Pacific. ``You can think of it as a pendulum swinging back and forth,'' said Tim Barnett This article is about the New Zealand politician. For Tim Barnett, see that article. Timothy Andrew Barnett is the member of the New Zealand Parliament for Christchurch Central. He has held the seat as a Labour MP since 1996. of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Scripps Institution of Oceanography: see California, Univ. of. in San Diego San Diego (săn dēā`gō), city (1990 pop. 1,110,549), seat of San Diego co., S Calif., on San Diego Bay; inc. 1850. San Diego includes the unincorporated communities of La Jolla and Spring Valley. Coronado is across the bay. . ``The system has been driven so far to one extreme, that when it swings back, it overshoots the center.'' Tempting as a dry spell may sound to area residents sick of this winter's floods and mud, La Nina poses its own dangers. Recent heavy rains have already produced a bumper crop In agriculture, a bumper crop refers to a particularly good harvest yielded for a particular crop. Example: "With all the rain we've had over the last few months, we are expecting a bumper crop this year. of grass and weeds, a condition that firefighters warn is perfect for wildfires. Further, Barnett and others rush to point out how easily predictions of a La Nina winter could prove wrong. While researchers spotted the current El Nino forming almost a year ago, they have a more difficult time predicting La Nina, in part because they haven't studied it as much. During the last one, in 1995-96, forecasters disagreed over the role La Nina played in area weather. Adding to the confusion, some scientists believe the current El Nino phenomenon will regain strength this fall and drench drench 1. to give medicines in liquid form by mouth and forcing the animal to drink. See also drenching. 2. medicines given as a drench. California for a second consecutive year. ``We're just getting mixed signals at this point,'' said Klaus Weickmann, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Noun 1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; provides weather reports and forecasts floods and hurricanes and . ``They're all over the place.'' Yin and yang Yin and Yang Noun two complementary principles of Chinese philosophy: Yin is negative, dark, and feminine, Yang is positive, bright, and masculine [Chinese yin dark + yang bright] El Nino and La Nina in fact are opposite ends of the same climate system: a slow, unending dance between ocean temperature and the atmosphere. During El Nino years, a vast expanse of unusually warm water gathers in the eastern Pacific, off South America South America, fourth largest continent (1991 est. pop. 299,150,000), c.6,880,000 sq mi (17,819,000 sq km), the southern of the two continents of the Western Hemisphere. . Pumping moisture and energy into the air, the phenomenon triggers a chain of weather changes around the globe: drought in southeast Asia, flooding in Peru and Equador and warm winters in much of the United States. La Nina reverses most of those conditions. Water several degrees cooler than normal gathers in the eastern Pacific. Rain pounds southeast Asia, Peru goes dry, and much of America shivers under arctic cold. The two phenomena constantly alternate back and forth, following each other at irregular intervals. ``It's part of the normal climate of the planet. It always has been and always will be,'' said NOAA NOAA abbr. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Noun 1. NOAA - an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; meteorologist Gerry Bell. Dry days ahead For Southern California, La Nina usually means dry weather. The jet stream funnels storms through the Pacific Northwest, often catching Northern California but avoiding Los Angeles entirely. If La Nina strikes next winter, it could prolong the local fire season at a time when area hills are covered with fuel. Lingering moisture in the soil and brush should help keep fires from burning out of control, as it did following the El Nino winter of 1982-83, said Herbert Spitzer, assistant chief of the Los Angeles County Fire Department's forestry division. After the 1995-96 La Nina winter, the vegetation and ground was unusually dry and several massive fires, including one that burned from Calabasas to Malibu. This year, with so much flammable grass around, the department could face many small fires next winter. ``That's what I'd expect this year, a lot of starts, a lot of grass fires,'' he said. A lesson in prediction The trick is trying to determine whether La Nina will actually appear. Although scientists understand the basics of the El Nino-La Nina system, many details of the twin phenomena still elude them. They don't know Don't know (DK, DKed) "Don't know the trade." A Street expression used whenever one party lacks knowledge of a trade or receives conflicting instructions from the other party. , for example, why there have been far fewer La Ninas than El Ninos during the last two decades. Since 1980, El Nino has struck five times, La Nina two. While they have grown steadily better at predicting El Ninos, researchers have a harder time spotting signs of a developing La Nina. ``With cold events, we really don't know what to look for,'' Weickmann said. ``There hasn't been a lot of cold events lately, so we don't have the sense of intuition that you like to use with the (computer) models.'' This year, forecasts are further complicated by the lingering effects of the strongest El Nino on record. Although the warm water pool in the eastern Pacific is losing volume month by month, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above normal into the summer. The rains socking California could last through April. Forecasters also say they often have a hard time predicting next winter's conditions before spring, a season that can bring dramatic changes to the world's weather. ``It'll be late spring before I feel more confident and willing to put bets down on this,'' Barnett said. ``Any time you make a long-range forecast, that's a hard job.'' CAPTION(S): 2 maps MAP: (1) Tracking the weather La Nina, El Nino (2) 1995-1996 winter Source: Tom Murphree, Naval Postgraduate School The Naval Postgraduate School is a graduate school operated by the United States Navy. Located in Monterey, California, it grants primarily master's degrees plus some doctoral degrees to its students, who are mostly active duty officers from U.S. and foreign military services. |
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