NEW UNION ERA HAILED; ECONOMISTS VOICE DOUBT.

Byline: Steven Greenhouse The New York Times

When a bleary-eyed Ron Carey, president of the Teamsters union, held a news conference at 1 a.m. Tuesday to trumpet his union's agreement with United Parcel Service, he said what all of organized labor was waiting to hear.

The settlement, in which the Teamsters won most of what they wanted on pensions, pay and limiting the use of part-time workers, will be as much of a boon to labor, he said, as the failed air traffic controllers strike of 1981 was a bust.

``I remember in the 1980s when the air traffic controllers union was wiped out,'' he said. ``For 15 years after that, employers all across the country cut jobs, cut pensions, cut health coverage and stepped on workers' rights.

``Working people were on the run, but not anymore. This strike marks a new era.''

Virtually every labor leader in the country who stood in front of a microphone Tuesday hailed the UPS settlement as a watershed.

Having thrown their support solidly behind the Teamsters, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney and other union leaders were eager to see - and celebrate - a Teamsters victory. Since the UPS-Teamsters showdown was the nation's biggest strike in more than a decade, labor leaders recognized its symbolic and substantive importance, and they understandably are seeking to milk the results for all they're worth.

``It's more than PATCO,'' Sweeney said. ``This is a great victory not only for UPS workers, but for all workers. It addresses the country's need for good jobs. It was a fight over issues that workers all across the country related to: part-time work, outsourcing, protecting pensions and health insurance. It was a wake-up call to employers who want to downsize and continue doing all these negative things.''

But many economists and business leaders voiced doubts that the agreement ending the 15-day strike would be such a boon to the nation's unions.

``I think the strike is probably a public relations victory for the Teamsters, but I really don't see it having much effect on other labor settlements,'' said Bruce Steinberg, chief economist for Merrill Lynch. ``Other unions just won't have the power to imitate the Teamsters.''

In staging their walkout, the 185,000 strikers had many things going for them that the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization, known as PATCO, did not. The Teamsters are one of the nation's most powerful unions, they had strong public support, the president was not unsympathetic to them, and UPS management was reluctant to use replacement workers.

Many labor leaders acknowledge that when President Reagan dismissed 11,500 striking air controllers for violating the law against strikes by federal workers, it encouraged employers nationwide to take a more aggressive approach toward fighting unions.

But there were several underlying trends that made that moment a watershed that weakened labor's clout. The country was soon to enter a deep recession, and American industry and labor were feeling the hot breath of imports like never before.

Today many union leaders and economists see several forces that just might reinforce the pro-labor trend they divine in the UPS settlement. The labor movement, after being disorganized and dormant for more than a decade, has sprung back to life.

The jobless rate is below 5 percent for the first time in more than two decades, making workers feel more secure about demanding higher wages. And for the first time since 1980, there is a president who is sympathetic to unions. Also, the administration is expected to grow more labor-friendly as Vice President Al Gore vies for union support in his expected presidential primary battle against Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, the House minority leader and one of labor's best friends in Congress.

Assessing the UPS settlement, Nelson Liechtenstein, a labor historian at the University of Virginia, said: ``It ends the PATCO syndrome. A 16-year period in which a strike was synonymous with defeat and demoralization is over. Walter Reuther, the great leader of the autoworkers, used to take a so-so settlement and make them historic and mobilize workers around them. This is much better than a so-so settlement.''

Carey wasted no time in trying to rally workers around the settlement. At 1:30 p.m. Tuesday, in his second news conference of the day, he announced plans to step up efforts to unionize the 110,000 workers at Federal Express, predicting that they would be wowed and wooed by what the Teamsters won from UPS.

His hope, and many labor experts agree, is that the UPS pact could affect nonunion workers in ways other than making them think more warmly toward unions.

``I can assure you that right now discussions are going on in executive offices in Wal-Mart, Kmart, Federal Express, all these labor-intensive service firms, about how to rethink their labor strategy,'' Liechtenstein said. ``All these nonunion firms that want to remain nonunion might raise wages and otherwise emulate what's going on in the union sector.''

WHO WINS?

The United Parcel Service strike is being seen as a rare union victory - perhaps as old fashioned as the milk-wagon look of those distinctive brown trucks.Customers did things the old way, too, but no one was calling them winners. They resorted to sending their packages by mail, bus or foot, if not pricey alternatives. The 15-day idling of the nation's largest package carrier produced these winners and losers:

WINNERS: Teamsters. The union mounted a resolute strike that forced the company to abandon pension changes and agree to convert up to 10,000 part-time jobs to full-time.

LOSER: UPS. The company lost about $600 million in business. ``It was devastating for our business, devastating for our people,'' said UPS chief executive officer James Kelly.

WINNERS: Other shippers. UPS estimated 5 percent of its business will remain lost to competitors, who were hard-pressed to fill the vacuum created by the idling of the nation's largest package carrier. That's $15 million a week for the competition.

LOSERS: Customers like Ron Rowen, president and CEO of Performance Products in Van Nuys. People waited longer or paid more to get packages. Many say they won't be going back to UPS.

WINNER: Alexis Herman. Labor secretary since May, Herman encouraged the parties to come together several times and booked a room at the Washington hotel where the deal was reached.

WINNER: Teamsters chief Ron Carey. The settlement may solidify his hold on the union after a divisive election. He had faced scrutiny for alleged irregularities in his campaign.

- By CALVIN WOODWARD

Associated Press

CAPTION(S):

Box, 6 Photos

Box: WHO WINS (See text)

Photo: (1--Color) No caption (UPS picket sign)

(2--Color) No caption (James Kelly)

(3--Color) No caption (Ron Carey)

(4--Color) No caption (Alexis Herman)

(5--Color) No caption (Ron Rowen)

(6--Color) UPS drivers Oscar Stokes, left, and Johnny Daniels share a laugh Tuesday at UPS' downtown Los Angeles facility.

Associated Press