NEW TOYS ON THE BLOCK STILL AWAIT MASSIVE CONSUMER FOLLOWING.

Byline: Glenn Lovell Knight-Ridder Tribune News Wire

The shiny black box sits forlornly on the shelf between CD players and discounted VCRs.

Trumpeted as ``the next new thing'' only six months ago, this afternoon it draws only blank stares and half-shrugs, and the occasional ``What's it good for?''

At least one clerk likens Panasonic's version of the digital video disc (DVD) to a spiffy new sports car - minus, for now, the juice to get it out of the showroom.

``Software? Not in yet - but you know you can use it for karaoke,'' volunteers a Good Guys salesman without a trace of irony.

Forget about the media naysayers; even the people charged with introducing and moving the devices agree that DVD could stand for ``Darn Vexing Decision.''

Should you buy one now without so much as a demo disc to pop into the drawer? Or should you exercise a modicum of patience and hold back until late March or April, when 40-some titles arrive from Warner Bros., MGM and Columbia TriStar? (Disney, 20th Century Fox, Universal and Paramount are concerned that DVD will make their libraries easy pickings for international pirates; they're waiting to see if copyright and encryption safeguards work.)

Third option: Proceed with extreme caution, and wait to see if the CD-size digital discs really do supplant video cassettes and laser discs, as Toshiba and Sony evangelists have been predicting from the floor of ShoWest and other trade shows.

Only Silicon Valley's ``gadget freaks'' and ``early adopters'' are forging ahead imperiously. Mr. and Mrs. Average Joe, still adjusting to their CD player, are years away from swapping their VCR for a player that can't record, most retailers and studio reps agree.

``I think the price right now is too high for people to just jump in,'' said Filiberto Arredondo, owner of San Jose's LaserLand Home Theater, which sells DVDs. ``It's more laser disc customers who want to complement their systems with a new toy.''

Ben Feingold of Columbia TriStar Home Video agreed in a trade paper interview. ``DVD will be novelty for the first year,'' he predicted. ``The real growth will come in years two to five (as the price comes down).''

At the moment, the DVD trailblazer has three manufacturers from which to choose: Panasonic (models DVD-A100 at $599.99 and DVD-A300 with Dolby Stereo at $749.99), Toshiba (SD-2006 and 3006 at $549 and $649, respectively) and Pioneer (DVL-90 at $1,598). Toshiba's SD models, backed by an aggressive rebate campaign, arrived in Good Guys showrooms Friday and this week; Denon, RCA and Proscan are due mid-April; Sony units are expected in May. Sony, RCA, Philips and Toshiba purposely dragged their feet so as not to share Panasonic's dilemma.

``We've got 'em now!'' exclaimed John Chin, a local sales manager for Good Guys. ``Unfortunately, we're only running demo discs; the software won't be available until March 24.''

The first Warner and MGM movies - a potpourri of recent releases (``Twister,'' ``Space Jam''), critics' favorites (``Raging Bull,'' ``Midnight Cowboy'') and popular classics (``Casablanca,'' ``The Wizard of Oz'') - will be priced at $24.99. Columbia TriStar plans to implement a more cautious release schedule, beginning April 29 with $28.98 discs of ``Fly Away Home,'' ``Jumanji'' and ``Legends of the Fall.''

Regardless of the amount of software available, Steve Riggins had to have the box.

The 30-year-old San Jose software engineer took the plunge two weeks ago and plunked down $1,600 for Pioneer's DVL-90, only half as iffy because it accommodates laser discs as well as DVDs. A self-described ``early adopter'' with a growing laser disc library, Riggins is always the first on his block to test run the latest electronic wonder.

``I'm alone out there,'' he acknowledges. ``I don't know anyone else who will touch them; my friends are waiting for the Sony DVD. But I'm always early. I bought the first Sony Magic Link (personal digital assistant), which didn't catch on. Then I bought the first Apple Newton.''

The jury is still out as to whether DVDs are, in fact, an improvement over laser disc players and VCRs. One contingent argues that DVD resolution will be only as good as your TV and you'll have to invest in a high-definition TV to realize the full potential. Others point out that the digital sound is top-notch, but the picture, due to disc compression, is still soft around the edges, especially in action scenes.

``I've seen the Pioneer-Panasonic demos - they're atrocious,'' Riggins said. ``The average person might go `Wow!' But check what they're saying on the Web (alt.video.dvd). Someone who knows about pixelation, color balancing and artifacts will tell you the demos are bad.

``You'd think with all the time they've had to get them out there, they'd be better. It doesn't make sense.''