NEW EL NINO DELUGE WETTER, STORMIER WINTER PREDICTED.Byline: Bill Hillburg Washington Bureau WASHINGTON - A stronger-than-expected El Nino system will bring wetter and stormier winter weather to parched parch v. parched, parch·ing, parch·es v.tr. 1. To make extremely dry, especially by exposure to heat: The midsummer sun parched the earth. Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, - possibly even a repeat of the deadly rains of a decade ago, forecasters said Thursday. The prediction comes from several leading meteorological me·te·or·ol·o·gy n. The science that deals with the phenomena of the atmosphere, especially weather and weather conditions. [French météorologie, from Greek centers and represents a significant change in the winter forecast from what had been expectations of a mild El Nino impact. ``It's time to batten down the hatches (Naut.) to lay tarpaulins over them, and secure them with battens. See also: Hatch ,'' said Bill Patzert, a research oceanographer at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory “JPL” redirects here. For other uses, see JPL (disambiguation). Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) is a NASA research center located in the cities of Pasadena and La Cañada Flintridge, near Los Angeles, California, USA. in Pasadena, who had earlier forecast a minimum-force El Nino. ``This thing has definitely pumped up in the last few months. It looks like we're in for a wet winter, and that's very good news. We need the rain.'' Patzert predicted a replay of the 1991-92 El Nino winter, when four storms during Feb. 9-18 left eight people dead and caused $125 million in damage in Los Angeles, Ventura, Kern, Orange and San Bernardino counties. Damage that winter totaled $523 million statewide. The San Fernando Valley San Fernando Valley Valley, southern California, U.S. Northwest of central Los Angeles, the valley is bounded by the San Gabriel, Santa Susana, and Santa Monica mountains and the Simi Hills. was hit hard and 15-year-old Adam Bischoff was swept down the Los Angeles River The Los Angeles River is an intermittent river flowing through Los Angeles County, California, from Canoga Park in the west end of the San Fernando Valley, 51 miles (82 km) southeast to its mouth in Long Beach. channel to his death - a tragedy that led to the creation of the first swiftwater rescue teams. The Los Angeles Civic Center recorded 21 inches of rain that winter, compared with normal precipitation of 15.14 inches. Last season, the Civic Center got a record low of 4.42 inches. So far this year, 2.41 inches of rain has fallen. ``This a classic El Nino pattern,'' Conrad C. Lautenbacher Conrad C. Lautenbacher is the incumbent Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere within the United States Department of Commerce and the eighth administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He was appointed to the position on December 19, 2001. , administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Noun 1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; provides weather reports and forecasts floods and hurricanes and , said at a Washington news conference as the agency released its winter forecast. He said the El Nino phenomenon, a warming of water in equatorial Pacific waters off South America that steers storms toward California and across the southern tier of the United States, ``will shape weather patterns through spring 2003.'' Like Patzert, NOAA NOAA abbr. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Noun 1. NOAA - an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; forecasters last summer had predicted a mild El Nino and normal rainfall totals for Southern California. On Thursday, they upgraded the El Nino condition to ``moderate.'' NOAA and other forecasters cited an expanded area of above-average sea temperatures off South America and a severe drought in Australia Drought in Australia is defined as rainfall over a three month period being in the lowest decile of what has been recorded for that region in the past.[1] This definition takes into account that drought is a relative term and rainfall deficiencies need to be compared to . Both factors in the past have been indicators of a strengthening El Nino event. ``Odds of getting real significant storminess are pretty good between now and March,'' said Dan Cayan, director of climate research at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Scripps Institution of Oceanography: see California, Univ. of. in La Jolla. He would not predict a rainfall total, but said, ``We have an above-normal chance of getting above-normal precipitation.'' He also cautioned that, while El Nino conditions are ripe for producing rain, they are also somewhat unpredictable. ``We've had El Ninos that have been very dry,'' Cayan said. Both Patzert and Cayan noted that a strong storm pattern is already setting up in the Pacific, and they predicted that the wettest and wildest days for Southern California will probably occur in January and February. ``El Nino conditions pose a threat to coastal and hillside areas, especially if you get several storms in quick succession or the storm coincides with high tides,'' Cayan said. ``But this is also a great opportunity to restore water supplies in our reservoirs. We have been awfully dry over the past year.'' Bruce Rockwell, a forecaster at the National Weather Service's Los Angeles/Oxnard center, cautiously predicted normal rainfall for the season, with El Nino-steered storms due in January and February. He said a pair of storms now lined up in the Pacific were typical early winter events and were not related to El Nino. Rockwell said the first storm is expected to drench drench 1. to give medicines in liquid form by mouth and forcing the animal to drink. See also drenching. 2. medicines given as a drench. California from Santa Barbara northward today and Saturday and will only brush the Los Angeles area. The second storm could bring a halnch of rain to Southern California from late Monday through Wednesday. El Nino - ``little boy'' in Spanish - is a reference to the Christ child because it typically occurs around Christmas, once every five years. The phenomenon alternates with La Nia, Spanish for ``little girl,'' a cooling of ocean water at the equator that normally results in relatively dry winters for Southern California. The last El Nino, in 1997-98, was preceded by massive preparations by local, state and federal disaster officials. The 1997-98 El Nino downpours helped to set record seasonal rainfall totals at many locations, including Chatsworth (44.19 inches), Simi Valley (40.05 inches), Northridge (36.10 inches) and Long Beach Airport (29.68 inches). CAPTION(S): chart, map Chart: EL NINO: Wettest and Driest Years in Los Angeles Since 1921 SOURCE: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Map: EL NINO - WINTER OUTLOOK SOURCE: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
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