N.J. could be hit hard by tornadoes.

Most people associate tornado activity with the "Tornado Alley" of the Great Plains states. While this is true in terms of the sheer numbers of tornadoes and losses, surprisingly, catastrophe modeling shows that New Jersey has the highest average expected, or modeled, insured losses per 1,000 square miles from tornado and related weather events, followed by Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio and Rhode Island. The high average loss rates in the above-mentioned five states are affected heavily by insured property values in addition to the frequency of the storms.

While it is true that tornadoes have struck around the world, geographic and weather conditions are most favorable for frequent and severe storms in the United States and Bangladesh. The vast bulk of insured losses, however, are suffered in the United States.

Ten Costliest U.S. Tornadoes

                                                     Billions of
Rank  Date           Location                     2007 Dollars *

 1    Mar 31,1973    Central-Northern Georgia               5.21
 2    Jun 8, 1966    Topeka, Kansas                         1.94
 3    May 11,1970    Lubbock, Texas                         1.43
 4    May 3, 1999    Oklahoma City, Oklahoma                1.30
 5    Apr 3,1974     Xenia, Ohio                            0.98
 6    May 6,1975     Omaha, Nebraska                        0.91
 7    Apr 10,1979    Wichita Falls, Texas                   0.73
 8    Jun 3, 1980    Grand Island, Nebraska                 0.70
 9    Oct 3,1979     Windsor Locks, Connecticut             0.66
10    May 8, 2003    Oklahoma City, Oklahoma                0.44

* Damages are total, not just insured property losses.

Sources: NOAA, A.M. Best Co. using Construction Cost Index deflator

Damaging Tornado/
Hail Events by State

                     Modeled Average
                    Annual Loss ($M)
Rank  State    per 1,000 ** Sq Miles

 1      NJ                     15.70
 2      CT                     15.44
 3      MA                     13.54
 4      OH                     12.01
 5      RI                     11.41
 6      MD                      9.49
 7      IL                      8.61
 8      OK                      7.75
 9      DE                      7.23
10      IN                      6.88
11      MO                      6.49
12      MI                      5.77
13      GA                      5.29
14      PA                      5.04
15      TX                      4.94
16      NC                      4.93
17      TN                      3.81
18      NY                      3.67
19      FL                      3.61
20      MN                      3.48
21      SC                      3.39
22      KS                      3.27
23      KY                      3.14
24      AR                      2.97
25      WI                      2.95
26      IA                      2.84
27      CO                      2.81
28      VA                      2.63
29      LA                      2.61
30      AL                      2.56

** 1,000 square miles is a circular radius of 17.8 miles.

Source: RMS, A.M. Best Co.