Movie firms see cool Yule finale for record year.

A sensational summer has led to a strong fall, making movie industry executives extraordinarily optimistic about the Christmas season. Some studios started marketing their holiday films in September while others are torquing up their marketing budgets to have a chance in the ultra-competitive November-December period.

The holiday season historically represents only 8 percent of the industry's annual revenues, but film executives now predict this year's crop will produce 15 percent of 1993's box office revenues.

Instead of waiting until Thanksgiving weekend to jump into the holiday fray, most studios are releasing movies two weeks before. They are also releasing more films during the holiday period, increasing revenues and making this the second most important period after summer.

However, it is the most expensive time of the year to market films because other industries such as retailing are also advertising heavily.

Walt Disney Co. jumped the Christmas gun by releasing one of its big-budget holiday films, "The Nightmare Before Christmas," in October. Director Tim Burton's strange animated musical broke house records at Los Angeles' El Capitan Theatre with a $129,858 three-day opening weekend in mid-October.

Hollywood's number-crunchers forecast the 1993 holiday season will at least equal last year's, when moviegoers spent nearly $1 billion for movie tickets. The consensus is that when ticket sales are tallied after New Year's weekend, around $5.3 billion to $5.4 billion will be in the till for the year.

That would smash the industry's 1989 revenue record, when sales just topped $5 billion, according to Art Murphy, the box office tabulator for The Hollywood Reporter. No 1993 Christmas film is expected to top Universal Pictures' "Jurassic Park," which so far has been the year's biggest hit with $327.9 million in domestic sales.

Murphy estimates the fall season should finish with about $800 million in ticket sales, bringing the industry to almost $4.5 billion for the year to date just before Thanksgiving. Even if the industry goes into a sudden nose-dive, he sees it breaking the 1989 mark. The industry had a relatively soft 1992 but a strong holiday season finishing, with sales for the year under $5 billion.

Marketing costs this holiday season will be going up. The current box office leader, "Demolition Man," will spend $20 million for its advertising and prints cost, according to officials at Warner Bros. Inc.

The Christmas movies will be spending in the $15 million to $20 million range, it is estimated. These are just marketing costs and don't include production costs, which now approach $30 million per studio flick.

"With everyone competing with television advertising, the costs are going to go up," Murphy said. "There are more films in the pipeline and that drives up the rates for everyone. To be competitive, a movie must advertise its opening and then keep yelling and screaming to say, 'Folks, we are still here' when other important films debut."

Disney is already out of the starting gate with "The Nightmare Before Christmas," which most see as the most offbeat holiday movie to ever come out of Disney. Last year it had the biggest Yule holiday hit with "Aladdin."

Explaining Disney's release strategy for "Nightmare," Dick Cook, president of Buena Vista Pictures Distribution, said, "This is a unique, original movie and will take a long time to develop in the marketplace. It takes time for it to percolate and get audiences ready for something very different."

The film goes nationwide this Friday (Oct. 29) and is a musical fantasy of what would happen if the creators of Halloween took over Christmas.

Film executives rate Disney's and Warner Bros. Inc.'s holiday schedules as the most solid. Disney will debut a remake of "The Three Musketeers" before Thanksgiving and in December release a sequel to "Sister Act," last year's comedy success starring Whoopi Goldberg, and a western called "Tombstone" with Kurt Russell.

Warner Bros. will go into the holiday season with the market share lead for the year so far among the major studios. And by releasing six films, more than any other studio, it is likely to maintain its lead and become the 1993 box office champ.

Warner executives are already celebrating. According to Barry Reardon, president of Warner Bros. Distribution Co., "We expect to win it (market share) easily. Right now, we're $100 million ahead of Disney and Universal. 'Demolition Man' is currently performing well and we feel good about our holiday films."

Warner's potential holiday blockbusters are packed with stars. In "Perfect World" (debuting Nov. 24) Kevin Costner plays an escaped con being hunted by Clint Eastwood. In "The Pelican Brief" (Dec. 17) Julia Roberts and Denzel Washington are paired in novelist John Grisham's thriller. Warner is also releasing an animated version of "Batman," its 1989 megahit.

Other potential big holiday films include Twentieth Century Fox Film's "Mrs. Doubtfire" staring Robin Williams and sequels to "Addams Family," "Wayne's World" and "Beethoven." Theater owners report the trailer to "Addams Family Values" (Nov. 19) has been drawing great reactions.

Tim Warner, president of the National Association of Theatre Owners, predicts 1993 will beat 1992 by at least 10 percent with the holiday season coming in strong.

"The pre-Thanksgiving lineup looks impressive and when we get into Christmas the numbers will go well over the top," he said. "The product is diverse and will appeal to a wide spectrum of people."

The holiday schedule has a blend of comedies and some very heavy drama. Tri-Star Pictures' "Philadelphia," a movie about AIDS starring Denzel Washington; Warner's "Heaven and Earth," an Oliver Stone Vietnam epic; and Universal's "Schindler's List," Steven Spielberg's Holocaust film, are also part of the holiday lineup.