Mouse house may have trouble maintaining stock surge.

DISNEY'S film studio dominated the summer box office, ABC and ESPN boast splashy TV hits, the theme parks weathered the gas pinch pretty well and the consumer products unit is riding a high-tech wave.

Under new President and Chief Executive Robert Iger, Walt Disney Co. shares have climbed steadily over the past year and hovered just above $31 last week, a 52-week high. With everything going so well in the House of Mouse, doesn't a discouraging word seem just a little, well, Goofy?

Not necessarily, according to David Miller, managing director at Sanders Morris Harris. His firm last week down-graded the stock from "buy" to "hold" and said in its analysis: "We have trouble at this point citing material studio catalysts in the near term." The translation: Disney is going to have a tough time following its 2006 act.

"The stock has done what we wanted it to do--it's up 30 percent for the year, and all four businesses are doing very well," said Miller, who believes the shares have likely neared their 2006 peak. He noted since 1984, (the start of former Chief Executive Michael Eisner's tenure), the stock has a tendency to surge--and top out--when Wall Street has the impression that all four businesses are running at full speed.

"That's exactly what's happening now; all four business units are firing on all cylinders," Miller said.

Part of the stock's rise can be attributed to Disney's embracing of new media distribution platforms. The primary example of that is Disney's ABC network, which has made much of its primetime content--including "Desperate Housewives"--accessible via streaming Internet video, new partner Apple Inc.'s iTunes and over cell phones with Verizon Wireless.

There's also last week's launch of Disney's Max Mix digital media player for music, video and photo content. It's intended to complement Apple's iPod, not compete against it. At $99 it's way cheaper, and the design and capabilities are more suited to youngsters.

ABC's early season reviews have been positive and cable network ESPN is scoring early ratings touchdowns with its $8 billion purchase of the "Monday Night Football" franchise.

One of the reasons for the downgrade, Miller said, is that it's hard to imagine the film studio pulling off another box office year like this one, in which "Pirates of the Caribbean 2" (more than $1 billion worldwide) and "Cars" ($436 million) were monster hits.

Next year's release slate is back-loaded, with the next Pixar film, "Ratatouille," and the third "Pirates" installment scheduled for third quarter release. The first "Narnia Chronicles" sequel is due in summer 2008.