Moderate Ambitions.

GOP moderates were in the spotlight on impeachment. Get used to it.

IN the days leading up to the historic floor vote on impeachment, Republican staffers estimated that about twenty GOP congressmen were truly undecided. Some published lists of fence-sitters doubled that estimate, but those lists included members who wanted to remain publicly uncommitted while they privately assured colleagues that they supported impeachment. "Only undecided Republicans are invited on Meet the Press," observed one unofficial Republican vote-counter.

But the moderate Republicans are going to have plenty of moments in the sun after they reach a decision on impeachment. If the 104th Congress was dominated by the "majority makers" who elected Newt Gingrich Speaker, the 106th will be shaped by the "majority breakers" who now hold the GOP conference hostage. Thinking about the narrower GOP majority in the next House, a leadership aide glumly asked, "Do you realize that every time six Republicans gather at a mike to oppose the leadership, we'll be stalled?" The struggle over impeachment is merely a foretaste of the power moderate Republicans are going to wield.

The fight over wavering Republicans began when Rep. Peter King of New York announced on television that he opposed impeachment and was sure that 15 to 20 Republican members did the same. King's estimate was based on conversations with both moderate and conservative colleagues and reflected last month's widespread assumption that impeachment was dead. Based on his own preference and instinct, however, Majority Whip Tom DeLay responded that impeachment remained a possibility.

King believes that DeLay's comments drew a partisan line on impeachment, which caused some Republicans who were leaning against impeachment to jump on the fence. And the President did himself no good with wavering Republicans. His too-cute responses to the Judiciary Committee's 81 questions revealed a contempt for the House that riled Republicans. "That's when some Republicans decided that he just doesn't get it and deserves whatever happens to him," a GOP staffer explained.

The White House asked King which moderate Republicans they should try to win over, but King told them that "as a conservative, I really don't know those guys too well." Rep. Michael Castle of Delaware withdrew his invitation for King to join a conference call to discuss the censure option when his fellow moderates balked at including the conservative King.

While King's new moderate allies are unfriendly, conservatives in his district are furious. "In my 27 years as chairman of the Conservative Party in Nassau County, I have never had as many calls as now in opposition to Peter King's position on impeachment," declares Jack O'Leary. O'Leary reports that members of his own executive committee are openly talking about supporting a primary challenge to King because "people who vote for him are in favor of impeachment, despite what polls say." Almost all of the New York Republicans who have announced that they oppose impeachment enjoy the endorsement of the state's Conservative Party. One of them, Rep. Amo Houghton, earned himself an announced primary challenger for 2000 just 48 hours after his anti-impeachment op-ed ran in the New York Times.

TUG OF WAR 

The anti-impeachment pressure on the swing New York Republican delegation comes from Governor George Pataki, Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Senator Al D'Amato, and from the fact that Clinton carried all 13 GOP districts in 1996. Republican vote-counters worry most about the outspoken opposition to impeachment of GOP Governors, which could isolate some members politically. By voting for impeachment, Rep. Nancy Johnson of Connecticut puts herself in the tough position of bucking both Gov. John Rowland and her only Connecticut Republican colleague, Rep. Christopher Shays.

Still, the conservative pro-impeachment agitation had an effect on some Republicans. After Illinois's John Porter expressed misgivings about impeachment, the Republican women's club in Porter's district unanimously approved a resolution in support of it. Veteran conservative activist Kathy Rothschild sent Porter a letter announcing she was seriously considering challenging him in the 2000 primary. Porter, who ran unopposed in the last election, joined the Republican fence-sitters.

None of the pressure, however, came from the House leadership. Reporters scoffed at DeLay's assertion that he hadn't contacted colleagues to urge support for impeachment-but it was true. DeLay remained inactive in order to avoid distracting charges of strong-arming. In the days leading up to the floor vote, Republican members of the Judiciary Committee began quietly to contact undecided members, offering to answer questions or provide analysis. Committee Chairman Henry Hyde planned to meet with small groups of Republicans when they returned to Washington, to make the case for impeachment. Anything more aggressive, Republicans figured, would probably backfire.

As the White House's heavy-handed lobbying certainly did. Republicans were disturbed to learn that one Cabinet member called a government contractor to urge him to have his Washington office contact members on behalf of the White House. A White House official called Florida Congressman Lincoln Diaz- Balart to discuss supplemental funding for the victims of Hurricane Mitch, and then added that White House counsel Charles Ruff was standing by to answer any questions about impeachment. Rep. Jay Dickey of Arkansas was furious that a White House aide, quoted in a newspaper in his district, threatened the end of his political career if he supported impeachment.

In the face of this all-out White House effort, GOP staffers were quietly sharing secondhand intelligence about the positions of their own members. A veteran Republican vote-counter fretted, "I think that the votes could be there for impeachment, but am afraid we won't get them because the White House and Democrats are whipping this vote and we're not." Watching victory slip away because Republicans don't have the Democrats' party discipline: it may prove a familiar story in the next Congress.