Minmetal deal just the beginning of takeovers.

At $7 billion, Minmetal's takeover of Noranda will be the largest in Canadian mining history and the biggest investment in Canada by a Chinese company. It is also just the beginning of a wave of takeovers.

The Chinese have to export, and they have to export to Canada and the U.S. That means bundles of North American dollars flow into China. When China spends them on Chilean copper and Canadian nickel, they flood the market with U.S. dollars. The U.S. dollar drops and Americans can't buy Chinese goods. Then the Chinese boom goes pop.

China has to get those dollars back into North America to boost American spending power. The best way is to buy assets.

When Saudi Arabia was drowning in oil money, the Saudis bought real estate in New York. When Japan was flooded with U.S. dollars, the Japanese bought U.S. companies. Now it is China's turn. Minmetal will pay more for Noranda than Noranda is worth to anyone in North America. If we try to stop deals like this, we kill Chinese growth. If Chinese growth stops, northern jobs disappear.

Buyouts are inevitable, but they are not necessarily bad. It is important to focus on the real problems they bring.

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Don't worry about production cutbacks in Northern Ontario. The Chinese need more, not less, metal.

Don't worry about foreigners owning our natural resources. Canada has been selling out from the beginning. Stopping the Chinese from buying our nickel mines now makes as much sense as kicking the Americans out of Alberta.

Don't worry about Chinese labour practices turning Sudbury into a Gulag. Canadian labour law will continue to apply; Minmetal will inherit the unions with the ore. And the ex-communist state-capitalists can't be rougher than the brass-knuckle capitalists of North America.

Don't worry about the security of American nickel supplies. If neither Bush nor Kerry noticed the problem during an election you know security of supply isn't a big issue.

Worry instead about suppliers and job quality. Worry about Canadian leadership in mining.

We have to make sure that the sale doesn't destroy the growing mining supply and service industry in Northern Ontario. Noranda has never shown great loyalty to Canadian suppliers, but Chinese managers are bound to prefer Chinese suppliers. Every company operating in Canada has to post a strategy to develop their local supply chains.

We have to keep the high-skill technology and management jobs in Northern Ontario. The Chinese will be tempted to replace the Falconbridge senior managers and engineers with their own people. They will move patents and research to China. To keep the best jobs in Canada we need a research and training levy on metal sales. Northern dollars have to go into northern training and research; sweeten the deal by letting Minmetal join other companies in directing the research. Work to make Canadian-trained mining specialists the best in the world. And if some of the Canadian-trained specialists are Chinese, so much the better.

We have to make the turning tide into an opportunity. Both China and Minmetal need this deal. They will make concessions, if only to make future deals easier. They will be willing to make Northern Ontario richer and smarter, as long as they prosper, too.

Two politicians are standing in the headlights. David Emerson, Minister of Industry for Canada, is one. Forty-two percent of Noranda's assets in 2003 were in Canada (just 12 per cent were in the U.S.). If push comes to shove, Emerson could block the sale. He can also ensure that Canada is better of in its new partnership whit China.

Rick Bartolucci, has a bigger share of Noranda under his jurisdiction than the U.S. president. He is on the firing line, too. Since he is responsible for both Northern Development and Mines, history will judge his courage and his vision. This is his big chance.

Chinese ownership could make northern development easier. A Chinese mining company can't pretend that tax breaks are automatically good for Canada. They have to show how Canadian resources are helping to develop the skills of the Canadian people.

China may teach us all that people power is the key to growth.

Dr. David Robinson is an associate professor of economics at Laurentian University.

He can be reached by e-mail to [e-mail]