Military deployment has San Diego businesses bracing for leaner times. (Up Front).

As local sailors and Marines continue to leave San Diego County, Katherine Mapes has two reasons to worry.

A server at Cafe 1134, a coffee shop in Coronado that sits within walking distance of North Island Naval Air Station to the north and the Navy's Amphibious Base to the south, she wonders about losing many of her regulars.

She's also worried because she knows a lot of people in the military -- and many were deployed last week to the Persian Gulf. "I have a lot of friends from (Camp) Pendleton, because I grew up in that area," Mapes said. "It's sad, so sad -- you don't know if they're going to come back."

As thousands of sailors and Marines left port and San Diego for a possible conflict in the Middle East, they left a great deal behind -- family, friends, community.

They also are leaving something else -- an economic vacuum that will ripple through San Diego County the longer they're gone. Many small firms expect to lose at least some business as sailors and Marines leave the area. Others have seen business increase temporarily as the military prepares for deployment.

The situation "does have that negative consequence of troops being shipped out, their incomes not being spent locally, the families getting very conservative, and in some cases, leaving the area for the duration of the war," said Kelly Cunningham, an economist with the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce.

Cunningham said San Diego saw retail sales drop an unprecedented 7.6 percent in the first quarter of 1991 - time of the air and ground war in Kuwait. But Cunningham noted that while the Gulf War was "a blow to the economy of San Diego," the recession that year was more the result of a cutback in defense spending after the war.

Giving notice

This time around, there's no hard data to go by and early evidence is largely anecdotal. But economists and employers notice a change.

The most noticeable departure came Jan. 17 when 10,000 sailors and Marines left San Diego aboard seven ships bound for the North Persian Gulf. The morning departures quietly reshaped the local economy.

Since as many as one-quarter of all military people have second jobs in the civilian world, those who left have given notice to their civilian employers.

"Companies now are planning ahead because they are concerned they may be losing employees - either reservists who are called to duty, or active military that are holding a second job," said Phil Blair, chief executive for the local Manpower Temporary Services franchise.

Civilian spouses often change work habits when their military spouses ship out. Managers at AppleOne Employment Services said they have noticed an attitude shift among civilian spouses.

"They are completely flexible with their hours and shift availability, wanting to keep themselves busy and stimulated," said Eve Nasby, regional manager for AppleOne.

Gary MacDonnell, manager of Oceanside Transmission Unlimited, said it's too early to tell how the deployment from nearby Camp Pendleton would affect his shop. However, as the Marines geared up to go overseas, he noticed a strong spike in business.

"There was a major rush over the last week and a half to two weeks," MacDonnell said. "All the guys (were) trying to get their last minute repairs done before they left, so they could leave their cars with their girlfriends and wives in working condition."

Dan Cannon, chef and 'partner in Oceanside-based Flying Bridge Restaurant, also noticed an increase in the business. "Last week we had a lot of young Marines coming in with their families - aunts, uncles, and friends seeing them off," he said.

Both the restaurant and the adjacent hotel, the Guest House Inn, were expecting an annual reunion of former Marines ended up being called off because of increased activity on base. "They didn't want their activities to interfere with the planning," he said.

Oceanside effect

Since it's on Camp Pendleton's doorstep. Oceanside is especially sensitive to troop deployments. But Jane McVey, economic development and redevelopment director for the city of Oceanside, does not expect the current deployment to hit as hard as it did during the Vietnam War or during Desert Storm.

In the last quarter-century, she said, the town's population has grown more than 300 percent, while Pendleton's population has grown only 30 percent. If anything threatens to cut into Oceanside's budget, it's the state budget crisis.

"Oceanside has grown a lot in the past 12 years; we have a lot more people. But the number of Marines at Camp Pendleton has stayed the same; it's been static," said David Nydegger, chief executive of the Oceanside Chamber of Commerce.

Nydegger expects some businesses that cater to the Marines will be hurt - chiefly barbershops, uniform shops, and dry cleaners. However, he said, many Marines are still left at Camp Pendleton.

Also, Oceanside has developed other industries - chiefly tourism. "I just got off the phone with a woman from Ohio, who's looking to come here," he said. "So we've got other things going on."