Mild, wet weather could rule this winter.

Byline: Tim Christie The Register-Guard

It may be time to stock up on sandbags, candles and dried goods.

If the winters of 1964-65 and 1988-89 are any indication, Oregon could be in for a warm, wet fall and winter, punctuated by major flooding, a big windstorm or some other severe weather event, according to state climatologist George Taylor's annual winter forecast.

Conditions in the tropical Pacific are the most dominant influences on Northwest winters, Taylor said Thursday. During El Nino years, when ocean temperatures off South America warm up, we get dry, mild winters in the Northwest. During La Nina years, when ocean temperatures are cooler, we get wet, cool winters, he said.

But this year is shaping up as an in-between neutral year, with no sweeping changes in Pacific weather conditions, meaning it's a "La Nada" year, he said.

"In-between years can give us just about anything," he said.

So Taylor examined the conditions leading into the fall - climate cycles, ocean currents, sea level pressure, water temperature and other factors - with previous "analog" years that had similar conditions at this time.

"When I found similar years to this year, there was a general consensus: Most were wetter than average and a little milder and most had at least one significant weather event," he said.

That means we're most likely to get hit with a severe windstorm or severe flood, but cold temperatures, a blizzard or an ice storm aren't out of the question, he said.

In the winter of 1964-65, Oregon experienced major flooding in December and a major windstorm rocked the state in February. In 1988-89, the severe weather was a prolonged cold snap that paralyzed the state in February.

An in-between year could be good news for skiers and ski resort operators in Oregon, he said. "Historically, our snowiest winters have occurred in neutral years," he said.

Fall may arrive earlier this year. October typically is the big transition month in Oregon, starting out mild and dry and ending cool and wet. That transition, often abrupt, may start a few weeks early this year - by late September or early October, Taylor said.

In the first half of the season, from October to December, Oregonians on either side of the Cascades can expect above-average temperatures with normal or slightly above-normal precipitation.

From January to March, temperatures should be about average throughout the state, though precipitation could be well above average west of the Cascades, and may be somewhat higher than average in Central and Eastern Oregon.

That could lead to a late winter or early spring flood, he said.

Taylor, an atmospheric scientist at Oregon State University, said his prediction of last year's winter was "a qualified success." The first half began warm, as he predicted, but the October transition brought record cold late in the month and into early November.

His precipitation pattern was on target, but his call for cool January-March temperatures missed the mark, he said. Instead, it was surprisingly mild.

"Every year, our diagnostic ability and the amount of data we analyze increases greatly," Taylor said, "but we still have a ways to go."

It's possible there was an analog year almost exactly like the one we will see, but it took place several hundred years ago - and we just don't know about it, he said.

"Mother Nature is fickle," he said. "That's what makes this such a challenge."

WINTER WEATHER

To read state climatologist George Taylor's complete winter forecast - and for other weather information - go to www.ocs.oregonstate.edu