Middle East - Conclusions to Peace - The Question Of Public Opinion.

What is behind the hardening of the moderate position in both Israeli and Arab camps is the fact that public opinion is increasingly on the side of the hawks. The situation turned rapidly after the Camp David talks, which were seen as a "make or break" event. Some have criticised the Clinton administration for portraying the talks in this light through the media, suggesting that President Clinton was desperate to have a "history-making" end to his presidency and was prepared to risk peace in the Middle East to achieve that objective. But the result of pushing too hard was that the talks' failure broke the faith of both sides in any real breakthrough in the future.

Immediately, the Israeli side perceived the rejection by Arafat of Barak's offer - the best made yet by any Israeli leader - as a sign that the Palestinian leader had not yet given up hope of "throwing the Jews into the sea". The Israeli side says that Barak offered 93% of the West Bank and shared sovereignty over Jerusalem at Camp David, and subsequently (at Taba in January 2001) 97% of the West Bank with some pre-1967 Israeli territory to be exchanged with the Palestinians for the rest. The Palestinians say this was not offered and that what Barak was offering on one day at Camp David, he was taking back at the next.

In any case, public opinion on each side now believes the other will never agree to a satisfactory compromise. Thus, public opinion is now open to the radical suggestions on both sides. Senior Israeli rabbis have recently referred to Palestinians as "ants" and called for the extermination of Arabs. There have been similar calls by senior Islamic religious leaders and Iraq's President Saddam Hussein for a jihad, a holy war, to liberate Palestine.

A recent research survey conducted by Zogby International suggests that Arab leaders (i.e. the moderates) may even be underestimating the vehemence of public opinion on the issue. And, ironically for an area that is criticised for its autocratic leadership, public opinion on the Arab side could well be the determining factor between war and peace in the Middle East (see News Service of this week).