Microsoft Fought The Law And The Law Won. Does Anybody Still Care?

As expected, in April Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson ruled that Microsoft is a monopoly and that the company used its influence illegally. Now, as the company prepares for what is sure to be a lengthy appeal, we wonder: Does it matter anymore?

Interestingly, Netscape-- the company that Microsoft most seriously harmed, according to the Judge--released its long-delayed browser upgrade on the day after the ruling. Now, of course, Navigator/Communicator has just 30 percent of the browser market, while IE basically rules the roost. But with AOL now at the helm, Netscape seems just a shell of the company that basically launched the Internet revolution. Communicator 6 is a smaller, faster browser with more optional modules and fewer bells and whistles than IE. But as users upgrade to faster machines with Win 98/2000 and IE already installed, expect Netscape to become a niche product in the Windows world. Users of Linux, however, can now at least upgrade to the latest browser technology.

Which brings us to the real meaning behind the ruling. Yes, the industry can cheer its moral victory. But it's too late to help Netscape. Ironically the Web, which created Netscape and spawned IE, has also served to limit Microsoft's influence in the industry, at least when it comes to non-PC technologies. Microsoft continues to struggle with CE in the wireless world, and just about every company is now throwing their applications on the Web, limiting the need (in many cases) for a Windows PC.

Of course, I am not suggesting that the Windows PC is going to disappear. What I see, no matter what the court-imposed remedy, is a Microsoft that is already adapting its business strategies. Instead of integrating everything into Windows (which may soon be illegal anyway), Microsoft is throwing huge sums of money at companies strategically positioned in just about every area of computing, from wireless to broadband and everything in between. Call it integration by investment. Is this something to be worried about? Many other companies (notably Intel and Cisco) do the same thing, and few people grumble about them.

The Microsoft of the future is not going to be the Microsoft of the past, with Windows as the stick that keeps everyone in line. Rather, it will more likely be the Wizard behind the curtain, operating quietly, behind the scenes, promoting technologies that will help Windows and Office, ignoring those that won't. Perhaps in five or ten years we'll long for the days when Microsoft walked tall and carried a big stick. Somehow, the prospect of a quiet Microsoft is very disquieting.