Mexico's international vision: tackling the myths; First foreign policy poll reveals strong nationalism, international pragmatism.

Nationalism is still alive and well in Mexico, but when it comes to foreign policy the man on the street is armed with a healthy dose of pragmatism as well. An overwhelming majority of Mexicans rule out the possibility of any foreign investment in the country's energy sector, but most would accept the presence of U.S. law enforcement agents at their ports and borders to help fight terrorism, a groundbreaking opinion poll shows.

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Traditionally, foreign policy in Mexico has been based on the tenets of non-intervention, pacifism and nationalism, but the survey--Mexico's first national, systematic, in-depth study of public opinion on international affairs--revealed that the reality of these foreign policy "myths" is much more complex and contradictory than had previously been thought.

Pollsters said one of the many surprises to come out of the study, a project run by the Center of Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE) and the Mexican Council on Foreign Affairs (COMEXI), was the extent to which Mexicans were familiar with and interested in international issues.

"This destroys certain myths about what we thought the national character was," said Guadalupe Gonzalez, the project's chief researcher and a professor of International Studies at CIDE, at a news conference to present the poll. "Mexicans are not passive, they want to participate."

The "Global Views 2004" project was carried out in conjunction with the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR), producing three final reports--one on Mexico, one on the United States and one comparing attitudes between the two neighbors. In both cases, two separate groups were interviewed--a national sample and an "elite" group, including policy-makers, business people, civil servants, politicians, academics and journalists.

Showing pragmatism from the outset, Mexicans named drug trafficking (89 percent) and global economic crises (86 percent) as the top two "serious threats" to national interests--tellingly, these are things which could directly affect, and in many cases have already affected, the lives of many ordinary Mexicans. And, reflecting a changed world after Sept. 11, 2001. 86 percent of the Mexican public regard biological and chemical weapons as a serious threat, while international terrorism came in fourth with 81 percent.

Regional differences also come into play here. In the northern border states, the level of concern over terrorism rises to 85 percent, whereas in the southern and southeastern states it comes in a little lower at 76 percent. "This regional difference could well reflect the close proximity and daily contact of residents in the northern border area with the United States," the report said.

"Although Mexico is not typically considered to be a major target of international terrorism or possible attacks with chemical and biological weapons, its long and dynamic border with the United States increases its vulnerability to attacks directed at that country ..." In the United States, international terrorism and biological and chemical weapons were seen as the top two threats to national interests. Neither Mexico nor the United States regard "the emergence of China as a world power" as particularly alarming.

This increased concern over terrorism on both sides of the border is one reason why many Mexicans (63 percent of the general public), contrary to the country's traditional stance of nationalism and unassailable sovereignty, support the idea of U.S. security officials helping protect their borders, airports and ports. In contrast, this idea was opposed by 69 percent of the Mexican elite surveyed.

"They would accept having U.S. agents in Mexico because they feel that that's one way in which they can be safer," said poll director Andres Rozental, a former Mexican ambassador to the UK and Sweden and president of COMEXI.

"It's probably that we don't trust the capabilities of the Mexican security forces," added Gonzalez.

But security, whoever it comes from, is clearly an issue for Mexico's general public. Some 84 percent said they would be in favor of tightening requirements for foreigners coming in and out of the country, while 87 percent said they supported increasing security controls over the flow of goods through the country's entry points.

ECONOMY, JOBS ARE PRIORITIES FOR ALL

When it comes to top foreign policy objectives, pragmatism is still the order of the day, with economic well-being taking center stage in most Mexicans' concerns. Protecting the interests of citizens abroad topped the list with 88 percent, while promoting the sale of Mexican products in other countries was second with 85 percent.

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In third and fourth place respectively were stopping the flow of illegal drugs to the United States (83 percent) and fighting international terrorism (78 percent).

"The importance of protecting the interests of Mexicans living in other countries can be attributed not only to material concerns--remittances are an essential source of income for many Mexican families in difficult economic circumstances--but also to the belief that a democratic government has a fundamental responsibility toward its citizens," the report said.

Remittances sent to Mexico from immigrants working in the United States (US$13.4 billion in 2003) are the third-largest source of foreign currency in Mexico, after crude oil exports and foreign investment. Around 10 percent of the Mexican population has emigrated and lives outside of the country.

In the United States, people are also looking inward when it comes to foreign policy objectives, with their No. 1 goal being to protect the jobs of U.S. workers.

"As was expected, for Mexicans and U.S. citizens from all regions and of all ages and levels of education, the protection of their economic interests as a nation and as individuals was the most important concern," wrote Gabriel Szekely in a column in El Universal.

And immigration, a hot-button issue on both sides of the border, goes right to the heart of these anxieties. Fifty-four percent of those surveyed in the United States think legal immigration to their country should be reduced, while 31 percent think it should stick at current levels. More than half of all illegal immigrants in the United States are of Mexican origin (5.3 million out of a total of 9.9 million), and 61 percent of those interviewed in Mexico said they had family living abroad, mostly in the United States.

U.S. President George W. Bush earlier this year called for changes to U.S. immigration laws to grant temporary worker permits to millions of mostly Mexican illegal workers. The majority of Mexicans surveyed (83 percent) support this idea, while in the United States 52 percent oppose it.

But despite concern over immigration levels, attitudes toward immigrants already in the United States are generally favorable in both countries--showing what being a good neighbor can achieve! Some 82 percent of those questioned in the United States and 94 percent of Mexicans think immigrants work hard in their new homeland, while 51 percent of U.S. respondents and 65 percent of Mexicans say they respect the law, in spite of their illegal entry into the country.

MONEY CAN'T BUY ME OIL

However, there are some things even money or relaxed immigration regulations can't squeeze out of Mexico. Seventy-three percent of Mexicans roundly rejected the idea of allying themselves with the United States in a military conflict in exchange for migratory concessions.

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And, despite deep concern for their fellow countrymen, when it comes to the oil sector, principles and national sovereignty win out over pragmatism and self-interest.

Mexicans are overwhelmingly opposed (71 percent) to any accord between the United States and Mexico that would allow U.S. companies greater access to Mexico's oil, gas and electricity sectors, in exchange for granting more opportunities to Mexicans to live and work legally on the other side of the border. Mexico's seizure of foreign oil companies assets in 1938, thus re-nationalizing the oil industry, is a central plank of modern Mexican nationalism.

Neither are they willing to trade oil concessions for economic development financing from the United States, with 70 percent coming out against such a proposal.

Rozental told BUSINESS MEXICO in a telephone interview he was surprised at the degree to which the general public opposed the opening up of the oil, gas and energy sector. He added that he had expected this from the elite group, but had thought the general public might be more pragmatic in this area as well.

So Mexico, or Mexicans, are prepared to work with the United States on resolving bilateral issues--but not at any price. Mexicans believe their country should take the bulk of the responsibility in solving problems such as drug trafficking, illegal immigration from Mexico and other illegals passing through Mexico, whereas its neighbor should take the lead in dealing with illegal arms smuggling from the United States to Mexico.

MY NAFTA, YOUR NAFTA

Trade is another area in the bilateral relationship where opinions differ. Despite the fact the United States, Canada and Mexico have been commercially linked by the Nafta free trade agreement for more than a decade, the public in both countries surveyed remain ambivalent about the effect and equality of benefits stemming from this accord.

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A case of "the grass is always greener"? Some 78 percent of Mexicans see Nafta as a positive for the U.S. economy, while only 44 percent say the same about their own economy. North of the border, 69 percent of those questioned in the United States saw the treaty as beneficial for the Mexican economy, whereas just 42 percent said it benefited their own economy.

Mexicans also believe that out of the three members of Nafta, the United States is the one that has gained the most from the accord.

However, in both countries the idea of extending free trade agreements finds majority support among the general public.

And with the United States being its biggest trade partner, Mexico has no choice but to get on with its powerful neighbor, which probably explains the almost "schizophrenic" relationship that exists between the two, according to the survey results.

Generally speaking, Mexicans view the United States favorably, giving it 68[degrees] (out of 100[degrees]) on the thermometer of sentiment toward other countries, the top place alongside Japan. On the other hand, 43 percent say they do not trust the United States. More Mexicans (29 percent) admire the United States than despise it (20 percent), but the overwhelming majority (46 percent) declared themselves indifferent.

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"Mexico has always had an ambivalent relationship with the United States--on the one hand they admire them, but on the other they don't trust them," Gonzalez said. "It seems that Mexico gets on best with developed countries like the United States, France and Japan, and not developing countries in Latin America, like Brazil," she said, adding that this perhaps reflected aspirations on the part of Mexico.

A large majority of those surveyed in Mexico (72 percent) are opposed to the idea that the United States should play the role of "world policeman," and 55 percent do not think the country has a positive influence on the world in general.

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

Among international institutions, Mexicans rated the United Nations highest, with 75[degrees] on a thermometer scale of 100[degrees], reflecting an emphasis in the Mexican Constitution on international cooperation, the sovereignty of states, non-intervention, equality of nations and the peaceful resolution of conflicts. "Mexican children are taught these principles in school, as well as the importance of the United Nations as the international institution fundamental in promoting peace and global cooperation," the report said.

Mexicans are also in favor (64 percent) of the U.N. maintaining a permanent peacekeeping force, and 48 percent said Mexico should participate in such a peacekeeping force.

A majority also believe the U.N. should have the ability to use military force in certain circumstances: serious human rights violations, like genocide (79 percent); to prevent countries from supporting terrorist groups (75 percent); to prevent countries acquiring nuclear weapons (74 percent); to defend a country under attack (74 percent); and, to reverse the overthrow of a democratic government (63 percent).

It is also worth noting that Mexicans do not view foreign policy as one of the government's most important activities. On a scale of 1 to 7, which was topped by education, foreign affairs came in sixth, trailed only by national defense.

But despite this, they are still keen to have a voice. Some 41 percent of Mexicans feel public opinion should exert a strong influence--10 on a scale of 10--in the defining of foreign policy, while a further 27 percent said public opinion should have a level of influence of 8 or 9.

And it would appear that President Fox's government still has, in large part, the support of the general public when it comes to foreign policy. Some 57 percent said they were wholly or partly in favor of the government's efforts in foreign policy, whereas among the elite there was more discord. Sixty-one percent of "leaders" questioned said they partially or totally disagreed with the way the government was dealing with foreign affairs, while just 34 percent of the general public said the same thing.

"The most important thing about all this is the survey itself, and the fact that it can now be used as a benchmark for comparison in the future," Rozental said. CIDE and COMEXI have announced that they now plan to conduct the survey every two years to measure changes in Mexican attitudes on important international and foreign policy issues.

"I would hope it would become a reference point for politicians, policy-makers, ambassadors ... to keep in mind what the people think and become a part of policy-making," he said. "But we will have to see what happens."

The ear of the leader must ring with the voices of the people--Woodrow Wilson

SERIOUS THREATS

Percentage by which each of the following was perceived as a "serious
threat" to the national interests of the respective countries.

MEXICO
Drug trafficking                                         89
Global economic crises                                   86
Chemical and biological weapons*                         86
International terrorism*                                 81
Global environmental problems*                           79
Violent conflicts over religious or ethnic differences   60
Economic competition with the United States*             55
Emergence of China as a world power*                     48

UNITED STATES
International terrorism*                                 75
Chemical and biological weapons*                         66
Hostile countries turning into nuclear powers            64
AIDS, the Ebola virus and other potential epidemics      58
Large numbers of immigrants entering the United States   52
The Arab-Israeli conflict                                39
Islamic fundamentalism                                   38
Global warming*                                          37
Competition*                                             35
Emergence of China as a world power*                     33

*Asked in both Mexico and the United States

FOREIGN POLICY GOALS

Percentage by which each of the following foreign policy objectives were
rated "very important."

MEXICO
Protect interests of Mexicans living abroad                      88
Promote sale of Mexican exports                                  85
Stop flow of illegal drugs into United States*                   83
Combat international terrorism*                                  78
Prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons*                        77
Promote and defend human rights in other countries               71
Help improve quality of life in lesser developed countries*      66
Strengthen the UN*                                               60
Bring disputes between Mexico and other countries before         60
  international tribunals
Help bring democracy to other countries*                         55

UNITED STATES
Protect jobs of U.S. workers                                     78
Prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons*                        73
Combat international terrorism*                                  71
Ensure energy supplies                                           69
Stop flow of illegal drugs into United States*                   63
Control and reduce illegal immigration                           59
Maintain superiority of military power at global level           50
Improve global environment                                       47
Fight world hunger                                               43
Strengthen the UN*                                               38
Protect U.S. business interests                                  32
Protect weaker nations from external aggression                  18
Help improve quality of life in lesser developed countries*      18
Help bring democracy to other countries*                         14

*Asked in both Mexico and the United States

RESPONSIBILITY FOR RESOVING BILATERAL PROBLEMS

Which country should take more responsibility for resolving the
following problems; the United States or Mexico?

                                                            U.S.  MEXICO

Drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States     MEX    27     38
                                                      U.S.   40     55
Illegal immigration to the United States via Mexico   MEX    27     41
  from other countries                                U.S.   46     48
Illegal immigration of Mexicans to the United States  MEX    21     54
                                                      U.S.   45     50
Illegal arms trafficking from the United States to    MEX    44     26
  Mexico                                              U.S.   62     33

*In Mexico, the reply "both" was accepted

Note: Table made from bar graph.

EVALUATION OF NAFTA

Percentage of people who think Nafta is positive or negative for the
following:

                                      POSITIVE     NEGATIVE
                                    MEXICO  U.S.  MEXICO  U.S.

The U.S. economy                    78      42    10      43
The Mexican economy                 44      69    39      16
Mexican businesses (Mexico)
/U.S. businesses (United States)    50      50    35      36
Job creation in the United States   N/A     31    N/A     56
Job creation in Mexico              49      69    36      17
Quality of life of people like you  41      51    35      33
The environment                     39      34    39      48

COUNTRY THERMOMETER

Average temperature for each country or group of people Favorable
sentiments >50[degrees], unfavorable sentiments <50[degrees]

MEXICO
United States     68[degrees]
Japan             68[degrees]
Canada            65[degrees]
Spain, France     62[degrees]
China             59[degrees]
Brazil            53[degrees]
South Korea       52[degrees]

50[degrees] = neutral

Cuba              46[degrees]
Guatemala         45[degrees]
Israel            41[degrees]
Iraq              38[degrees]

UNITED STATES
Great Britain     70[degrees]
Germany           58[degrees]
Mexico            54[degrees]
Israel            53[degrees]

50[degrees] = neutral

South Korea       49[degrees]
France            47[degrees]
China             44[degrees]
Cuba              40[degrees]
Muslims           39[degrees]
Saudi Arabia      37[degrees]
North Korea       28[degrees]

RELATED ARTICLE: METHODOLOGY

Mexico's national level survey was conducted between July 9-19, through house visits and face-to-face interviews. This method was necessary due to the low Internet and telephone coverage in the country. Interviews were carried out with 1,500 adult Mexicans, representing a mix of genders, ages, regions, incomes, etc. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

CIDE also interviewed, by telephone, 82 members of COMEXI, all of whom are Mexican and live in the country. These interviews were carried out between July 13 and Aug. 12. This group had a higher average level of education than the national sample.

The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations has been carrying out such surveys regularly since 1974. Its public opinion polls are widely regarded as an important source of information on U.S. public and leadership attitudes on international relations and foreign policy.

For more information see: www.cide.edu or www.ccfr.org or www.consejomexicano.org

RELATED ARTICLE: WHAT THE NEIGHBORS SAY

In the United States, despite terrorism still topping the list of perceived dangers, the CCFR poll revealed people feeling less threatened and less willing to project U.S. military power than in 2002.

Although the majority surveyed still considered international terrorism (75 percent), chemical and biological weapons (66 percent), and unfriendly countries becoming nuclear powers (64 percent), as critical threats to U.S. interests, these percentages have dropped considerably since 2002.

Protecting the jobs of U.S. workers now tops the list of foreign policy goals considered "very important" by the public (78 percent), while preventing the spread of nuclear weapons (73 percent) and combating terrorism (71 percent) still rank as "very important," but less so than in 2002.

Some two-thirds of the U.S. public surveyed and nearly all foreign policy "leaders" said the United States should participate actively in world affairs, but 80 percent of the public think their country is playing the role of world policeman more than it should. The large majority of the public (73 percent) and leaders (84 percent) said the most important lesson learned from Sept. 11 was that the United States needs to work more closely with other countries to fight terrorism.

Majorities of both public and leaders also believe that, when dealing with international problems, the United States should be more willing to make decisions with the United Nations, even if this means going along with a policy that is not its first choice.

However when talking specifically about terrorist threats they are not so sanguine. Fifty-eight percent of the public said the United States has the right, without U.N. approval, to overthrow a government supporting a terrorist group if there is strong evidence of imminent threat.

Although a reasonable number of the public (45 percent) and a strong majority of leaders (73 percent) say their government should put more emphasis on diplomatic and economic methods rather than military means in fighting terrorism, more than three-quarters of the public would also support U.S. air strikes and attacks by ground troops against terrorist training facilities.

In 2004, for the first time, the CCFR conducted its survey of the general public over the Internet. Between July 6 and July 12, 1,195 randomly selected adults answered questions on screens in their own homes. The margin of sampling error is around 3 percentage points. The leaders survey was done by telephone, spanning 450 people with foreign policy power, specialization and expertise between June 23 and July 19.

--Tara FitzGerald

Tara FitzGerald is the associate editor of BUSINESS MEXICO.