Meteorologists outline what to expect when 'big one' hits.

There is a warm ocean anomaly 250 miles off the coast of New Jersey where the water temperature had reached 70 degrees by early May--a ready made breeding ground for hurricanes.

An unusual season of Pacific water cooling is putting the East Coast at greater risk for severe storms this summer. And as the media has been trumpeting since the Katrina disaster, the earth's climate has entered a severe weather cycle and it is only a matter of time before a major hurricane pounds the East Coast.

According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Ken Reeves, who spoke before real estate and property management professionals at the BOMA/ NY May luncheon meeting, all indicators point to a strong possibility that this year, a storm of a Category 3 magnitude could make landfall near New York City.

The overall AccuWeather predictions for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season call for 13 to 16 named storms and four to six reaching Category 3 of higher. It's been almost 70 years since the Long Island Express made fatal landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the New York area and wreaked destruction with a 15-foot storm surge. But a hurricane savaging Long Island, as unfortunate as that would be, would still be less destructive than if the storm landed in New Jersey, which would place Manhattan on the dangerous eastern side of the hurricane eyewall and prone to greater storm surge, said Reeve.

Landfall in New Jersey would place Coney Island and Lower Manhattan (through the Financial District up to Canal Street) under almost nine feet of water.

Compromising evacuation efforts would be the fact that the salt water storm surge would take the subway, PATH, tunnel systems and airports out of commission.

Total damages could be three times as high as those incurred when a ferocious Nor'easter slammed Lower Manhattan in 1992, Reeve said, adding that while a direct bit on Manhattan is not likely, the City's office buildings and infrastructure will sustain substantial damage.

Most at risk are glass structures, including windows, which will be shattered by winds clocking in at anywhere between 25% and 30% stronger than those on the ground, stated the meteorologist. During a Category 3 hurricane, those winds are at minimum 11 miles per hour and can rage up to 130 miles per hour. Masonry buildings and steel structures will experience substantial wind sway but will withstand the storm structurally. "Time is a perishable commodity," stated Reeves. "Most evacuation warnings are usually given with a 48-hour window of when the storm is expected to hit. The answer to withstanding the storm as best as possible is to prepare, prepare, prepare."

He advised testing plans immediately and making sure that they are multi-purpose plans that accounts for the most extreme scenarios.

One can never predict Mother Nature 100% of the time, and Mother Nature always wins.