Megamedia Shakeout: The Inside Story of the Leaders and the Losers in Exploding Communications Industry.

Unless you have been hiding under a rock for the past year, more than likely the terms "500-channel universe" and "information superhighway" have crept into your vocabulary. Indeed, a communications age is dawning. Even The New York Times has launched a Monday business section devoted entirely to the "Information Industries." And with all the recent mergers and changes, in communications regulations, it's no wonder that "megamedia" is all the rage.

Kevin Maney, Money columnist for USA Today, coined the term "megamedia" to encompass telephone, software, computers, media and entertainment and the wireless industries. He has been reporting on these industries for a couple of years now, since before it was fashionable.

For all those who want to get the scoop on which companies will be the winners and losers once this 500-channel universe becomes a reality, Maney's Megamedia Shakeout: The Inside Story of the Leaders and the Losers in the Exploding Communications Industry (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 358 pp.) is the book for you. It gives an industry-by-industry breakdown of leaders to watch, winners and losers, predictions and trends.

Maney's tight but casual writing style makes the book an easy read. His extensive knowledge of the industry Shines through as he offers behind-the-scenes information on the deals, strategies, strengths and weaknesses of the most likely participants in the megamedia revolution. Some of the top players he spoke with include Bob Allen, AT&T; Frank Biondi, Viacom; and John Malone, TCI, who arbitrarily chose the number 500 when coining the phrase "500-channel universe."

Interestingly, the book jacket features photos of Ted Turner (Turner International), John Malone, Rupert Murdoch (News Corp.), Bill Gates (Microsoft) and Bob Allen; missing are Viacom's Sumner Redstone and Frank Biondi and Disney's Michael Eisner. I mention this because some feel Turner isn't in the same league as these guys. However, Maney's publisher thought he was the most "globally recognizable" of the bunch. And who could have known that Eisner would become such a big player (so fast) in megamedia, considering how little interest he's shown in the industry up until now?

So what should we expect as users of this impending technology? If Maney is right, "the megamedia family of the future will have a TV set surrounded by a bunch of boxes similar to the stereo components we pile up to hear music." And remote controls for the set-top boxes will be very different from those of today. They will be more like a computer mouse, with a clicker and a trackball. Personal computers have one distinct advantage over the TV, writes Maney: they are work tools and people are willing to spend more money on them than they are on home entertainment.

In the world of interactive TV, Maney acknowledges that ads will have to become bigger and better than they are now, since "zapping" commercials will become much more prevalent as consumers gain more control over their TV viewing. As for executives in the newspaper and magazine industries, Maney quips, "they have a collective knot in their stomachs. They see megamedia coming but don't seem to know how to get ready, how much to spend, or how quickly to move."

Maney concludes the book with a subjective chapter listing the five best companies to work for and the five biggest megamedia winners and losers. Obviously, a lot of things have happened in the industry since the book's publication, for instance the Disney purchase of CapCities/ABC and Westinghouse's bid for CBS. Nevertheless, Maney does name Disney as a "winner." Surprisingly, he says that Disney doesn't need to own a piece of the information superhighway, that as megamedia develops the market for top quality "software" will rocket and Disney will be at the top. Among the other winners on Maney's list are AT&T, which he predicts will be the most powerful company in the world and will only get stronger; John Malone, sans TCI, because his loyalty is first to himself and Maney views him as the smartest, boldest, toughest and bravest individual anywhere on megamedia's radar; and Motorola, which Maney considers the only wireless communications company positioned to reap the rewards no matter how the industry develops. Missing from Maney's top five winners is Viacom, which he says has the potential to be more exciting than Disney, once Viacom, Paramount and Blockbuster are all merged and working together. He does, however, name Viacom as one of the top companies to work for in the future.

Included on Maney's loser list is none other than Barry Diller. Once proclaimed as the king of new media and an interactive TV visionary, he is neither in Maney's opinion, but "simply one of the greatest mass-market, traditional programming executives of our time." Other losers are Sprint, DirecTV and Apple Computer.

Maney also offers somewhat cautious predictions and trends to watch for as megamedia becomes more of a reality. He sees vertical integration (the concept of owning all the parts of a business: creation, distribution and end-user sales, from beginning to end) disappearing, (Although Disney's recent coup with CapCities/ABC proved that vertical integration is still attractive.) Megadeals will continue and regulation will be a defining issue for a long time.

One may ask: When will all this technology happen? Industry experts hope by the next decade. But don't hold your breath.