Maynard Keynes: An Economist's Biography.

In the Preface to this work the author addresses the question of whether or not biography is of value to economists aside from the insight it provides into the sociology of the profession. He notes Stigler's reservation - "When we are told that we must study a man's life to understand what he really meant, we are being invited to abandon science" [1, 91] - but also his subsequent statement that he (Stigler) may have better understood Ricardo's writings had he known him as a colleague [2, 37]. With the latter point in mind Moggridge aims to choose and arrange those facts about Keynes's life which best provide readers a sense of what Keynes may have been like as a colleague. His efforts are largely successful.

The author (also the principal editor of The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes) presents "colleague" Keynes through two main avenues: first by discussing the evolution of Keynes's thought from approximately 1924 to 1935, the years leading up to publication of A Treatise on Money (1930) and the General Theory (1936), in chapters 17 through 21; and, second, by examining Keynes's Treasury activities during the First and Second World Wars in chapters 11-12 and 25-30. The former endeavor is engaging and insightful; the latter a double-edged sword, informative yet sometimes detail-laden.

Given Keynes's frequent reference to (and admiration of) the role of intuition in scientific discoveries, the gradual nature of changes in his own economic thinking is striking to the reader. While flashes of intuition undoubtedly fueled Keynes's interest in certain questions, Moggridge convincingly demonstrates that clarifying and refining those insights was a long and arduous, yet intellectually vigorous, process. Chapter 17 tells of Keynes's initial consideration of public sector investment as a means of stimulating the economy and shows how the prospect of Britain's return to the gold standard in 1925 focused Keynes's attention on the potentially destructive consequences of a deflationary cure to an overvalued currency. In Chapter 18 readers find Keynes's inherent interest in financial issues spilling over into industrial concerns as he examines the impact of the return to gold (and other factors) on the coal and cotton industries during the 1920s. Under Moggridge's guidance the reader also senses Keynes's increasing dissatisfaction with laissez-faire economic adjustments and a slow but steady intellectual pull toward a short run analytical perspective illustrated by continuing rumination on the efficacy of public works investment projects and vague inklings regarding their possible indirect, cumulative effect on aggregate economic activity, later to be identified as the employment multiplier.

In chapters 19-21 Keynes's thought processes continue to unfold gradually. The author presents A Treatise on Money (1930) as a look backward to Keynes's "Cambridge inheritance" in its implicit assumption of full employment and its elaboration of the Marshallian cash balances quantity equation yet also as a look forward to the General Theory in its attention to short run circumstances, particularly imbalances between planned saving and planned investment. Keynes's thinking progresses further in 1931-32 with recognition of the possibility of "an equilibrium position short of full employment" and realization of the need to rework the Treatise. Also in 1932 the depressed British economy causes Keynes to doubt his long-held faith in cheap money's ability to stimulate the economy, leaving "direct state intervention to promote and subsidise new investment" the "only way out." By 1933 the basic elements of the big picture are in place - the short run output adjustment framework, the theory of liquidity preference, etc. - though much clarifying and refining remain. This is a masterful presentation of Keynes's journey.

The second major element of Moggridge's depiction of Keynes - war-time public servant - certainly succeeds in familiarizing the reader with his professionally-related public service. At some points, however, the presentations in Chapters 11-12 and 25-30 approach running commentary on Keynes's daily activities. For certain audiences, possibly British war-time finance and public policy historians and some international economists, Moggridge's painstaking account of Keynes's participation in international reparations and financial negotiations may be invaluable. Many economists, however, will likely find such detail excessive.

For those who persevere, however, the rewards are not insubstantial. What emerged for this reader, among other things, was a sense approaching awe of the extent and substance of Keynes's professional contributions to his country and in some ways to the world. From his service on the Royal Commission on Indian Currency in 1913 to his frequent official and unofficial contributions to various British governmental bodies and officials during the inter-war years and onto the dizzying pace and array of international and domestic-related activities during World War II, Keynes's stamp on issues as diverse as Lend-Lease, postwar international currency arrangements, and official Treasury and Bank of England opinion regarding the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy is indelible. Integrally related to this voluminous service portfolio is Keynes's commitment to influencing public opinion, an endeavor in which he was typically unsuccessful in the short run yet often changed thinking over time. Indeed, though Essays in Persuasion appeared in 1931, Moggridge demonstrates that Keynes's direct and indirect influence was far greater in later years with, among other efforts, How to Pay for the War (1940) and powerful oratory in the House of Lords in 1944 and 1945 regarding the Joint Statement on the International Monetary Fund and the terms of post-war financial assistance from the U.S., respectively. The British government's official declaration in 1944 of "the maintenance of a high and stable level of employment after the war" as one of its "primary aims and responsibilities" further testified to Keynes's tireless persuasive efforts.

In addition to presenting and analyzing Keynes's public service activities and his attempts at altering public, official, and professional opinion, Moggridge develops numerous other interesting themes throughout the book, among them Keynes's emphasis on practical theorizing, his efforts in support of the development of national income data for the purpose of improving public policy, and his disdain for much econometric practice. He also comprehensively treats and assesses Keynes's views on free trade and protectionism, and strikingly illustrates throughout the book the gravity of matters of external and internal balance to the British economy.

Though some readers will find the detailed accounts of Keynes's war-time activities burdensome, the author certainly accomplishes his primary goal of providing readers a sense of what Keynes may have been like as a colleague. This book exemplifies serious scholarship and is a contribution to the literature on the life and work of Keynes which will withstand the test of time.

Thomas J. Pierce California State University, San Bernardino

References

1. Stigler, George J., "The Scientific Uses of Scientific Biography, with Special Reference to J.S. Mill" (1976) reprinted in Stigler, The Economist as Preacher. Oxford: Blackwell, 1982.

2. -----. Memoirs of an Unregulated Economist. New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1988.