Matching skills to needs.

Even with more than 1.5 million Canadians out of work, Bank of Nova Scotia Chairman Cedric Ritchie said, in 1994, that uneployment is not our basic problem. It's the growing gap between those who have the skills to adapt to the new work place and those who don't: 640,000 jobs have been lost since 1990 by Canadians whose training did not progress beyond high school. At the same time, says Mr. Ritchie, many technical jobs go begging.

"Canadians cannot avoid coming to grips with the issue of structural unemployment and the growing skills gap that lies its root. Restoring hope for reasonably full employment at decent pay is now the Number One challenge."

As far back as 1989, Canadian businesses reported they were having production problems because they couldn't find enough skilled workers. Between 1981 and 1987, the number of "knowledge" jobs -- professionals, engineers, technical and scientific staff, and selected management -- grew by 700,000. That accounted for about 73% of Canada's net employment growth. But only about 15% of unemployed Canadians fit into the professional-managerial category.

It is impossible to predict what new jobs will be created over the next 10 to 20 years. How many jobs listed in the help-wanted columns of today's newspapers even existed in 1970? Certainly not software engineers or aerobic instructors.

There are a few clear trends however. The expanding business of information means more jobs in such businesses as software, telecommunications, or public relations. In 1993 alone, Canada's telecommunications equipment manufacturers created almost 5,000 new jobs, while telecommunications broadcasting created an additional 2,000jobs. At $900 a week, these jobs paid 30% more than the average weekly wage in Canada. It's an industry that employed more Nova Scotians than mining and fishing combined, more Quebeckers than the construction industry, more Ontarians than the auto and auto parts industry, more people in British Columbia than the pulp and paper sector.

A couple of other areas look likely to need more workers. Tomorrow's grandmas and grandpas will have far more to spend than those in any previous generation, creating new demand for health, home care, financial advice, and travel. Speedier technological change will increase the need for most people to retrain at least once during their working life, which should mean more jobs for teachers of all sorts.

Ottawa's Canadian Occupational Projection System agrees with the prediction that fast growth occupations will be in information technology (such as systems analysts and data processing operators), health (from doctors and orderlies to occupational and speech therapists and physiotherapists), and services as diverse as industrial engineering, child care, and food and beverage preparation.

Tomorrow's new jobs are likely to share an important feature: many of them will require more education and skills than the jobs they replace.

Shell Canada Ltd. is a good example of what kind of skills companies want. In 1993 Shell screened employees at plants in Toronto and Montreal that were closing before moving them to a new Brockville, Ont. plant. They were looking for technical skills, ability to learn, and aptitude for teamwork, all essential credentials for 1990s job seekers. Forty of the displaced workers fit the bill for the new plant and another 50 shifted to other Shell jobs. But, 75 left the company through retirement or layoffs.

When CP Rail of Montreal laid off employees in 1994 it decided to keep those with the strongest people skills: those who could delegate, understand, and motivate others, as well as make decisions. Technical skills obviously are important but interpersonal and communicative abilities are also high priorities.

The auto parts industry is another good example of the changing job market. In 1985, 62% of the industry's hourly paid workers were unskilled, 13% were skilled, and the rest fell in between. Four years later, the unskilled group was down to 43% of the workforce while skilled workers had almost doubled their share to 25%; the semi-skilled had about one third of the jobs. Why? Computer-based technology is taking over from the plant floor to the front office.

ln 1985, Canadian business and government offices spent more on computer hardware and word processing ($2.3 billion) than on furniture (just under $2 billion). By 1990, Statistics Canada reported that about $5.4 billion was spent on office computers annually and $2.5 billion on furniture. In 1992, another $4.5 billion went into communications equipment, compared with about $2 billion in 1985, and most of the equipment (72%) was computerized.

There's also a shift away from unskilled workers in the service sector, which has accounted for almost 90% of new jobs since 1967. According to a 1990 study by the Economic Council of Canada, the sector now has either highly skilled, well-paid and secure jobs or unstable and relatively poorly paid jobs.

The good jobs are in what the Council calls dynamic services, such as finance, insurance, real estate, transportation, business services, communications, and wholesale trade. Services such as education, health, social services, and government also offer good jobs. Some sectors to keep clear of are the retail trade, the amusement and recreation industries.

In 1993, the federal government projected there would be two million new jobs during the 1990s. The challenge will be matching the jobs with skills. The key in training will be flexibility to adapt to new markets and technology, making education a lifelong endeavour rather than something that ends with a diploma or degree. Companies need workers who are not threatened by constant change, and are capable of taking on multiple tasks.

SUGGESTED ACTIVITIES

1. For further study, read futurist Frank Ogden's book The Last Book You'll Ever Read. The written book comes with a BookDisk.

2. Poll some local firms to find out what skills they think an ideal employee should have. Do they agree with the requirements that have been mentioned in this article?