Marathon man.

MARATHON MAN

THE NAME Michael Dukakis is now a household word. But beyond the fact that he is governor of Massachusetts, is the likely 1988 Democratic presidential nominee, and has a Greek background, the public at large knows little about him. This is what the polls--the same polls that show him holding about a 15-point lead over George Bush--disclose. Consider: only 27 per cent of respondents to a recent New York Times survey know that Dukakis is a liberal. (How else would you characterize a presidential candidate who favors abortion on demand, weekend furloughs for dangerous convicts, gun control, a freeze on nuclear weapons, and withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea, and opposes capital punishment, the pledge of allegiance in schools, prayer in schools, and funding for SDI?)

In short, Dukakis has entered that no-man's-land of politics where a candidate's name identification is high but the public knows almost nothing about his views or his record. It is a period when impressions are malleable. Dukakis and Bush will both be trying to shape Dukakis's malleable image in a way that benefits their campaigns.

To maintain the soft lead he has at the moment, Dukakis first must avoid looking like a special-interest candidate, a perception that has plagued Democrats in the last several presidential elections. Dukakis has served notice that he understands this fact. He recently borrowed a publicity tactic from John Anderson, who once accepted an invitation to appear before the National Rifle Association and used the platform to announce his support for gun control. The ploy is called Entering the Lion's Den. It heightens awareness of a candidate's position and seems to show daring and independence. Dukakis used it recently when he addressed a meeting of California gay-rights advocates. While Dukakis agreed with them on all other gay-rights issues, he stood by his policy of assigning higher priority to married couples as foster parents. The press loved it.

Second, Dukakis must avoid a fractious convention. This seems to have been taken care of already. Dukakis has gained the support of the Paul Simon delegates, and is assured of a first-ballot nomination. And Paul Kirk will be making every effort to see that the Democratic platform will be stripped of special-interest planks.

Third, Dukakis must pick the right vice-presidential running-mate. There must be no skeletons rattling in the closet like Gerry Ferraro's in 1984. Although there is talk of choosing New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley as the running-mate, Dukakis will probably look to broaden the geographic appeal of his ticket by going south and picking a running-mate from a state, like Texas or Florida, rich in electoral college votes. Dukakis will try to have his choice made by the end of July, so that he emerges from the Democratic National Convention with the public perceiving him as a man in charge.

George Bush's challenge during the next sixty days is to define Dukakis as liberal--too liberal for post-Reagan America. Bush can expect no help from the media, despite their habit of sniping at the frontrunner in a pack. Yes, Dukakis will be tormented (ABC has assigned Sam Donaldson to cover his campaign), but he will not be crucified. Left to its own devices, the press will not tell the voters just how liberal Dukakis is. In fact, it may let him get away with passing himself off as a centrist not far distant from George Bush on the liberal-conservative continuum.

Some Washington pundits believe Bush can make a comeback by distancing himself from Reagan, as the Veep indeed has tentatively done on the matter of the Noriega deal. A little of this separation is okay, too much of it is a mistake. Bush's opponent is Dukakis, not Reagan. Bush must show how he differs from Dukakis, and the most telling point is philosophy of government.

DUKAKIS is methodical and tenacious. Since he was first elected to the Massachusetts legislature in 1962, he has attained most of his goals, even though he suffered a number of defeats along the way--in his bid for attorney general in 1966, in the race for lieutenant governor in 1970, and in his attempt to gain re-election as governor in 1978. In surmounting these setbacks, Dukakis shows the will of a marathon runner, which in fact he has been. The marathoner knows there is a barrier that he must break through to complete the run. Stamina, pacing, and grit make the difference.

Dukakis is now facing that barrier again. If he can make it through the next sixty days of the campaign without too much damage from Democratic special interests or Republican attempts to define him as an unregenerate liberal, he will be positioned to prevail in November. Should he falter now, Bush--the Reagan wingman--will push past him for another four years of Republican control of the White House.